24-Hour FX Targets

NZD/JPY - pull-back into support

Prices are pulling back after a nice move off the 11/14 lows. If our wave count is correct, wave 3 was completed on the 240-min chart earleir today (79.22 high) and will now look to carve out wave 4.

We see wave 4 completing in and around the 78.73-83 area. If this holds, prices should then resume the push higher and trade towards 79.28 and 79.42

Lauch FX Desktop Ticker

Dave
 
NOK/SEK - long entry?

Note: this video below was posted for our clients, as such there are references to trades we currently have on - this is not meant as a way to 'tell you after the fact' - I was simply not going to create a new video that did not ave that content.

Perhaps no explanation was needed, however, some forums get a bit too anal about stuff - know what I mean?!

Cheers,

Dave

NOK/SEK long
 
Looking Ahead to Asia/London

The attached image are the Short-Term Reversal Levels (STRL's) for the next 24-hours. The link below is a short video tutorial on these.

Video Tutorial

Looks like CAD is finally finding some buyers - as noted earlier this morning the divergence between USD/CAd and DXC was a odd, however, timing when that disconnect was 'corrected' would be tough.

We may now have the catalyst we needed. The break below the bull trend-channel at 1.1426 will likely signify the beginning of a leg lower. Currently prices are trading at today's STRL support at 1.1398 - we will look to short into any bounce and will advise accordingly.

Dave
 

Attachments

  • STRL.png
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Last edited:
CRB Index Heads Lower

As noted in our posting last night (click here) the CRB index has been unable to break back above the bull trend-channel at 317.00 and has traded lower today. A close below 313.50 would be bearish and would likey contribute to an already weak CAD (i.e. higher USD/CAD).

Dave
 
Last edited:
Trade Idea - short EUR/JPY

The break lower in early New Zealand trading pf EUR/JPY may set the stage for a push lower towards 153.57. Bear in mind liquidity currently is light and may be causing a bit of a price anamoly.

A move back above 154.62 (i.e. stop-loss) would negate the short-term bearish trend.

Launch FX Desktop Ticker

Dave
 
Dave do you have a website or is aspen trading the one ?

Looking at your charts - do you ever use 5 min charts. I find them very useful for gbp/usd when combined with 60min daily. You seem to concentrate on 60-240min charts and its sometimes easier to get signals on the 5 min chart , hence the question.

Having tried others, I now use candlesticks and trend/SR lines.

Cheers
Combo. :cool:
 
combotrader said:
Dave do you have a website or is aspen trading the one ?

Looking at your charts - do you ever use 5 min charts. I find them very useful for gbp/usd when combined with 60min daily. You seem to concentrate on 60-240min charts and its sometimes easier to get signals on the 5 min chart , hence the question.

Having tried others, I now use candlesticks and trend/SR lines.

Cheers
Combo. :cool:
Click to expand...

Thanks Combo - no, I do not dip below a 60-min chart in terms of my analysis - lower time frame charts, in my opinion, are too noisy, and while they may produce a more timely signal at times, I prefer to keep my analysis on a swing trade time frame.

Aspen Trading is my company and hence, any info on the services I/we offer can be found at www.aspentrading.com

Thanks,

Dave
 
Pre-London FX Observations

NZD/CHF Technicals:

Nice pull-back into support seen on 60-min chart at the .8625-30 area. This level should hold and prices are likely to push higher towards .8700

Caveat - the stochastics on the 240-min chart are overbought and pointing lower, this may result in a slightly deeper pull-back than we are currently expecting.

Trade Idea

We are still monitoring a short in EUR/SEK - as of now there is simply no bearish momentum to carry prices lower - we will look for a break of 9.0100 as a potential catalyst to get short.

EUR/GBP Technicals:

Today's wild ride has completely altered the chart and now EUR/GBP looks much more bullish. The break above the daily bear trend-line at .6743 suggests prices may well head higher. The only obstacle at this point are some weekly moving average at .6781 & .6793 - these have held well in recent months.

Clients willing to risk 25 pips may find the current levels (.6745-50) attractive as a way to test the idea that prices may break those weekly moving averages.

Launch FX Desktop Ticker

Dave
 
Follow-Up & Trade Idea

Dave Floyd said:
NZD/CHF Technicals:

Nice pull-back into support seen on 60-min chart at the .8625-30 area. This level should hold and prices are likely to push higher towards .8700

Caveat - the stochastics on the 240-min chart are overbought and pointing lower, this may result in a slightly deeper pull-back than we are currently expecting.

Trade Idea

We are still monitoring a short in EUR/SEK - as of now there is simply no bearish momentum to carry prices lower - we will look for a break of 9.0100 as a potential catalyst to get short.

EUR/GBP Technicals:

Today's wild ride has completely altered the chart and now EUR/GBP looks much more bullish. The break above the daily bear trend-line at .6743 suggests prices may well head higher. The only obstacle at this point are some weekly moving average at .6781 & .6793 - these have held well in recent months.

Clients willing to risk 25 pips may find the current levels (.6745-50) attractive as a way to test the idea that prices may break those weekly moving averages.

Launch FX Desktop Ticker

Dave
Click to expand...

Well, the comments above proved to be somewhat useless, as prices either overshot levels we though would hold, or simply did not play out at all.

Here is a short video clip of a possible trade idea in
NZD/JPY

Launch FX Desktop Ticker

Dave
 
Dave Floyd said:
Well, the comments above proved to be somewhat useless, as prices either overshot levels we though would hold, or simply did not play out at all.

Here is a short video clip of a possible trade idea in
NZD/JPY

Launch FX Desktop Ticker

Dave
Click to expand...

Given that I accepted the lousy call I made on USD/CHF on 12/28, I left some wiggle room to toot my horn on the NZD/JPY call from earlier today. Hope somebody got it.

Launch FX Desktop Research

Dave
 
EUR/JPY - lower levels ahead

EUR/JPY (other yen crosses too) is poised to move lower. The chart below highlights our analysis.

Launch FX Research

Dave
 

Attachments

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