24-Hour FX Targets

Reversal Levels

valid for the next 24-hours

Dave
 

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Short-Term Reversal Levels

valid through 10/10 at 21:00 GMT....

Dave
 

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Notes on EUR crosses

10/17/06 03:42 GMT

Open Position Update:

EUR/GBP - slow and steady as usual. Prices have hovered around the .6730 for the last several hours after testing the .6715 level. Prices are set to resume the push lower based on our analysis of the intra-day time frames we follow. Target seen at .6665

Maintain short position from .6739 on Sunday evening.

10/17/06 03:25 GMT

EUR/JPY Technical Outlook

The 149.20 level remains pivotal for EUR/JPY - we are now looking at 149.06 as our final litmus test to establish shorts - a break below 149.06 within the next 10 hours will suggest that a multi-day move lower is in progress. A move towards 147.50 is not out of the question over the next week or so.

Launch FX Insight Desktop Ticker

Dave
 
EUR crosses follow-up

Dave Floyd said:
10/17/06 03:42 GMT

Open Position Update:

EUR/GBP - slow and steady as usual. Prices have hovered around the .6730 for the last several hours after testing the .6715 level. Prices are set to resume the push lower based on our analysis of the intra-day time frames we follow. Target seen at .6665

Maintain short position from .6739 on Sunday evening.

10/17/06 03:25 GMT

EUR/JPY Technical Outlook

The 149.20 level remains pivotal for EUR/JPY - we are now looking at 149.06 as our final litmus test to establish shorts - a break below 149.06 within the next 10 hours will suggest that a multi-day move lower is in progress. A move towards 147.50 is not out of the question over the next week or so.

Launch FX Insight Desktop Ticker

Dave
Click to expand...

Good follow-through thus far....

Dave
 
Short-Term Reversal Levels (STRL's)

see attached file...

Tip - draw these levels directly on your charts as a horizontal line - you will find them very effective at identifying reversal points.

Launch FX Desktop Ticker

Dave
 

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Last edited:
Wednesday AM FX Comments

10/18/06 13:43 GMT
USD/CAD Technicals

Following up on our comments regarding the dollar and its 'labored' feel - USD/CAD is exhibiting similar characterisitics. We will only become convinced that the up-trend in this pair has resumed on a close (New York) above 1.1411 - from there we may see 1.1435.

Bottom line: not the best set-up currently

10/18/06 13:41 GMT
Trade Idea Follow Up

AUD/USD & USD/CHF - while tempting trades as noted in previous posting still feel as though we might be chasing an entry price. The dollar is firm, but still feels like it is laboring to make moves higher.

10/18/06 13:40 GMT
EUR/USD Technicals

Hearing of some solid bids at 1.2500 - Source: RAN Squawk

A break of 1.2500 will expose the 1.2495 level we noted last evening as key support - a break here could see prices move towards 1.2455

10/18/2006 13:14 GMT
Trade Idea

We are looking to short AUD/USD on a break below .7520 as well as going long USD/CHF on a break above 1.2730 - we will monitor and report as needed.

Launch FX Desktop Ticker

Dave
 
USD/CAD pulling-back towards long entry

see attached.....

Dave
 

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Short-Term Reversal Levels (STRL's)

see attached file...

Tip - draw these levels directly on your charts as a horizontal line - you will find them very effective at identifying reversal points.

Valid through Thursday at 21:00 GMT

Launch FX Desktop Ticker

Dave
 

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  • STRLS.jpg
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Fib projections identify possible long entry

see attached
 

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follow-up from previous posting

Dave Floyd said:
see attached
Click to expand...

Looks like the Philly Fed pushed aside our analysis regarding a short-term bottom in DXC as well as USD/CAD - the number was disappointing and was the second poor reading in a row. Dollar is down while equity markets are modestly higher.

This will take us back to the drawing board to re-evaluate the technical backdrop.

Dave
 
Trade Idea - long USD/CAD

USD/CAD has just issued a buy signal on our 60-min model. However, with prices quite extended we will wait for a pull-back or consolidation before going long. We expect to use a stop-loss just under the overnight low of 1.1220

Dave
 

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The Week Ahead

Dave Floyd said:
USD/CAD has just issued a buy signal on our 60-min model. However, with prices quite extended we will wait for a pull-back or consolidation before going long. We expect to use a stop-loss just under the overnight low of 1.1220

Dave
Click to expand...

Well, that one certainly did not work out too well!

Attached our our thoughts for the next couple of days....

Dave
 

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The Week Ahead

Just some thoughts ans charts as we look to start the new trading week:

EUR/JPY - while EUR/JPY seems set to break to new highs, we need to remind ourselves that we have been here before on several occassions in the last few weeks. We suspect we simply see more of the prolonged trading range of 150.40 - 149.20.

A 'show me' approach to this cross is needed for us before we look to make a trade in it.

GBP/USD - a possible short set-up - lot's of overhead resistance (see chart below)

USD/JPY - looking to get long on any pull-backs into support at 117.60 with a 30-40 pip stop-loss - upside targets at 118.25-40

Monday's Short-Term Reversal Levels (STRL's) - see image below

Dave
 

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Aud/nzd

AUD/NZD Technicals

Following up from our analysis last week (1st chart), we are still likely to turn bullish on this cross if resistance levels can be breached (2nd chart)

Dave
 

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Short-Term Reversal Levels (STRL's)

While STRL's are not the holy grail, they are a fantastic tool when used in conjunction with either a reversal pattern, or overbought/oversold indicators such as RSI and stochastics.

Simply draw them in on your charts as horizontal lines* - this is an excellent way to identify potential reversal points.

Dave
 

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Dollar (DXC) To Trade Higher (temporarily)

These charts illustrate our forecast for the dollar index (DXC) and USD/CHF - charts

Dave
 
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