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This is a discussion on ES Trading within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; It's FOMC day today! The markets have already assigned a 100% probability that the "Hawkish" (*LOL*) US FED will be ...

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Old Dec 14, 2016, 2:35pm   #391
 
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FOMC Fairy tale

new_trader started this thread It's FOMC day today! The markets have already assigned a 100% probability that the "Hawkish" (*LOL*) US FED will be "hiking" (*LOL*) rates today because the US economy is growing! (LMFAO)

The price action of gold is telling me a very different story, and as Lord Rees Mogg
said: “Government lie; bankers lie; even auditors sometimes lie; gold tells the truth.”

If my figuring is correct then whatever the US FED does, gold will most likely dip down below US$1150 sometime after the announcement but stay above $1100 (possible low of US$1130) and close the year between $US1150 - $1200.

However, I am forecasting that gold breaks above US$1400 by mid 2017

All of this is contingent on gold staying above $US1100. If it breaks below that then both the US FED and I have misjudged the market.




GC @ 1162.1
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Old Dec 31, 2016, 9:44am   #392
 
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Stagflation

new_trader started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by new_trader View Post
It's FOMC day today! The markets have already assigned a 100% probability that the "Hawkish" (*LOL*) US FED will be "hiking" (*LOL*) rates today because the US economy is growing! (LMFAO)

The price action of gold is telling me a very different story, and as Lord Rees Mogg
said: “Government lie; bankers lie; even auditors sometimes lie; gold tells the truth.”

If my figuring is correct then whatever the US FED does, gold will most likely dip down below US$1150 sometime after the announcement but stay above $1100 (possible low of US$1130) and close the year between $US1150 - $1200.

However, I am forecasting that gold breaks above US$1400 by mid 2017

All of this is contingent on gold staying above $US1100. If it breaks below that then both the US FED and I have misjudged the market.

So far so good!

Click the image to open in full size.


Cracks are starting to appear in the FED's recovery fantasy. What is happening is good ol’ fashioned stagflation.


Quote:
"FOMC forecasts show up to three rate hikes are expected for next year, up from two in September in a move described by the Fed as "slight". Inflation forecasts are unchanged but forecasts for the unemployment rate, in a reminder of full employment, have been lowered."

I put the chances of 3 rate hikes in 2017 at < 5%




GC @ 1152.0
ES @ 2233.50





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Old Jan 20, 2017, 12:21pm   #393
 
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Why aren't consumers spending like mad???

new_trader started this thread U.K. Retail Sales Fall Most Since 2012 as Price Rises Bite
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...re-prices-rise

Quote:
U.K. retail sales fell at the fastest pace in almost five years in December as rising prices saw consumers buy less of everything from household goods to clothing and food.

How is everyone enjoying the inflation the Central Bankers keep saying is good for ‘us’? Seems like only yesterday they were saying that inflation will ‘boost demand’ because consumers would hold off spending if prices fall…you know…consumers are terrified of the deflation bogeyman!!


Only a [comment removed] could believe the Keynesian nonsense!





GC @ 1199.6
ES @ 2265.25






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Old Feb 18, 2017, 4:45pm   #394
 
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Change In Speak

new_trader started this thread Retail sales fall unexpectedly in January
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39002325

Quote:
Analysts said consumers were becoming wary of spending at a time when employment and earnings growth was slowing and inflation rising.

Samuel Tombs at Pantheon Economics said consumers were starting to "crumble" in the face of inflation pressure.


How is everyone enjoying the inflation the Central Bankers keep saying is good for ‘us’?

It seems like only yesterday the Central Bankers were trying to terrify us all with the DEFLATION BOGEYMAN; warning us that if prices fell “Consumers would hold off purchases” triggering an economic disaster of biblical proportions OMG!

Only a [comment removed] could believe Central Bankers rhetoric!






GC @ 1236.0
ES @ 2348.50




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Old Sep 30, 2017, 11:54am   #395
 
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Gold

new_trader started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by new_trader View Post
It's FOMC day today! The markets have already assigned a 100% probability that the "Hawkish" (*LOL*) US FED will be "hiking" (*LOL*) rates today because the US economy is growing! (LMFAO)

The price action of gold is telling me a very different story, and as Lord Rees Mogg
said: “Government lie; bankers lie; even auditors sometimes lie; gold tells the truth.”

If my figuring is correct then whatever the US FED does, gold will most likely dip down below US$1150 sometime after the announcement but stay above $1100 (possible low of US$1130) and close the year between $US1150 - $1200.

However, I am forecasting that gold breaks above US$1400 by mid 2017

All of this is contingent on gold staying above $US1100. If it breaks below that then both the US FED and I have misjudged the market.


GC @ 1162.1
ES @ 2266.00


74,678

GC reached a high of 1362.4 on 8th September 2017. The middle of 2017 was 2nd July, give or take. The actual GOLD price was just under 3% short of my target in just over 2 months. Not bad for a call made over 6 months in advance.

Click the image to open in full size.

GC @ 1282.5
ES @ 2517.75



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Old Oct 3, 2017, 11:36am   #396
 
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dotcom all over again

new_trader started this thread The more threads I read, the more I am convinced that crypto’s are a bubble. No different to the dotcom bubble when people were talking “The New Economy”.

The crypto bubble will burst the same way as the dotcom bubble, but not before they sucker in more “Legendary” Trade2win members...

...and I thought crypto’s were just a millennial thing too...Nope!

I’m sticking with gold and silver...and the wheel.

This forum is invaluable for all the wrong reasons



GC @ 1273.5
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Old Nov 16, 2017, 11:10am   #397
 
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Inflation is good for 'us' right?

new_trader started this thread Britons 'face expensive Christmas dinner' as food price inflation soars

http://www.theguardian.com/business/...aked-3-percent

So how is everyone enjoying the inflation the Central Bankers keep saying is good for 'us'?


Quote:
Rachel Lund, the BRC’s head of retail insight and analytics, said higher food bills meant consumers were cutting back in other areas of spending, forcing non-food retailers to offer bargains. She warned: “It may be an expensive Christmas dinner this year as a [result] of more costly imports and higher world food prices, particularly for dairy products.”
Cutting back? WTF? It seems like only yesterday the Central Bankers were trying to terrify us all with the DEFLATION bogeyman...telling us that consumers would "hold off" spending if they see prices falling.

Expensive means that consumers should now be spending money like crazy, right? "Animal Spirits" and all that other Keynesian bullshìt...

Only a brain dead moron could believe Central Banker rhetoric.



GC @ 1277.6
ES @ 2574.50





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Old Dec 30, 2017, 9:55am   #398
 
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Position Summary EOY 2017

new_trader started this thread This is a summary of my open positions going into 2018. Could this finally be the year gold makes a breakout? I'm confident it will and I am positioned accordingly.


This trade suffered a bit of a setback but I'm still holding.

No stops hit. New positions added.

Current Status:
  • Position size: 74.2%
  • Profit target: 10.1%
Click the image to open in full size.

Previous Status.

I've also opened a new position going into 2018. This is a micro-gold futures contract MGC Dec 2018 expiry. I plan to hold it until near expiry as it is a deliverable contract. My broker doesn't allow taking delivery. Besides, it's a 10oz accumulation certificate not physical gold.

Click the image to open in full size.



Just to clarify, these are leveraged trades and completely separate from my outright physical holding in gold and silver.


GC @ 1305.1
ES @ 2668.25





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Old Feb 5, 2018, 9:40pm   #399
 
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Not the big one

new_trader started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by new_trader View Post
My figuring was 100% correct. Target hit. So much for all the Chicken Little dunces and their “Sell in May and go away” doctrine. The markets are going to the moon; Inflationary boom!


This isn’t an official forecast but I’d say this market has another +50% to go before there is any major correction. There is a kind of hubris starting to develop...just as one would expect in an inflationary boom. Although I’m not posting much these days I still read posts on Trade2win. It’s important for me to keep in touch with how the ‘public’ is thinking!

Click the image to open in full size.


The psychopathic Central Planners continue their financial repression while trying to brainwash you into believing that inflation is good for you. By my reckoning the next financial crisis isn’t too far away, probably around 2016-2017, but it might just be possible for the insane and psychotic Central Planners to INFLATE-REPRESS-DENY for longer than even I can imagine. But make no mistake; the Central Planners have every intention of inflating their way out this predicament. So even when (if) they start to raise interest rates it will only be a token effort to make it look as if their over leveraged economies are stronger. They will raise rates so impossibly slowly, in absurdly tiny increments to ensure they are always a long way behind the inflation curve. Don’t expect to see any Gerald Ford style “Whip Inflation Now” campaigns...that is from a bygone era when Central Planners kept inflation to a minimum as opposed to today where they are doing the very opposite. The poor and low income earners will suffer, but they are disregarded. All that matters is the deflation bogeyman is destroyed.

I notice that all the retarded Socialists aren’t concerned about anything. The clueless imbeciles who claimed that Socialism bailed out Capitalism during the 2008 panic and then jumped on the “Occupy” bandwagon don’t see any problems with what the Central Planners have created. They are probably so stupid that they believe this is a real economic recovery made possible by the “Massive Advantage” a Central Bank has with control of the money supply.

They aren’t expressing any concerns about the grotesque distortions in the economy which are the direct result of Central Planner intervention since 2008 and prior! They are so clueless they actually believe the establishment media propaganda who tells them we are experiencing real economic growth rather than inflationary growth.

But when the next crisis comes they will be the ones screaming at the top of their voice that Capitalism got out of control and “greedy” bankers are to blame. They won’t tell us exactly when the Socialist Central Planners handed the economy over to Capitalism. Their trick is more of a “heads they win tails we lose” situation. They will try and convince you that when things appeared to be good, it was thanks to the policies of our Socialist Central Planners and things went wrong when they allowed Capitalism to take over.

But I know the truth and so should everyone who has been reading my journal. Unlike the last Financial Crisis where only a few understood what was really going on and accurately forecasted the crisis, everybody should see the next financial crisis coming. There are no excuses this time.


37,771

U.S. Stocks Plummet, Erasing Gains for the Year: Markets Wrap
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...s-markets-wrap

Quote:
U.S. stocks plunged for a second straight session, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping more than 1,400 points and the S&P 500 Index enduring its steepest single-day decline since August 2015, erasing its gains for the year.

This is NOT the big one, it is only the prelude






GC @ 1342.2
ES @ 2686.75






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Old Feb 11, 2018, 1:05pm   #400
 
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The beginning of the end.

new_trader started this thread Bond-Stock Clash Has Just Begun as Inflation Looms
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...bogeyman-looms

And it’s all thanks to our Central Bankers who create bubbles with their inflationary monetary policies and then burst them again. How on earth can any adult with a brain believe that these people are the ones who give us financial stability?

As far as what happens next: IMO, the Central Bankers, unfortunately, are going to have to act again in some way to ‘save’ the markets from the mess that they themselves created. They will try and talk the market back up again and if that fails they will reflate the market again via their misguided monetary policies, again!

Whatever they do, this is appears to me to be the start of the beginning of the end of this bull market in stocks, especially if the market starts making new highs in the near future, as I suspect it will.

It seems like only yesterday the Central Bankers were saying inflation is good for us.

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it"
-George Santayana






GC @ 1318.1
ES @ 2621.50





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Old May 1, 2018, 12:12pm   #401
 
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Trade Update

new_trader started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by new_trader View Post

I've also opened a new position going into 2018. This is a micro-gold futures contract MGC Dec 2018 expiry. I plan to hold it until near expiry as it is a deliverable contract. My broker doesn't allow taking delivery. Besides, it's a 10oz accumulation certificate not physical gold.

Click the image to open in full size.


87,530
SOLD: MGCZ8 @ 1328.00
Net Profit: US$612.10

BUY: MGCJ9 @ 1342.3



I am fully transparent with my trades... unlike the weak hands in this forum



GC @ 1309.1
ES @ 2646.25





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Old May 4, 2018, 8:38am   #402
 
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Gold & The FED

new_trader started this thread If my figuring is correct the price target for gold[GC] is US$1340 by the next FED meeting scheduled for JUNE 12-13/2018.

DXY is going down down down...




GC @ 1311.1
ES @ 2627.75





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Old Jun 27, 2018, 12:38pm   #403
 
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Economic Slowdown? I think so!

new_trader started this thread Gold[GC] didn't hit my target(US$1340) and this is an ominous sign for the US economy. The stock market hasn't made a new high since January. A simple Economic Activity Index that I developed is also indicating a slowdown. The US Fed thinks they can keep raising rates...I have my doubts about that. I am still holding MGCJ9.




GC @ 1258.3
ES @ 2715.75






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Old Jun 30, 2018, 7:39am   #404
 
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Gold & The economy

new_trader started this thread If my figuring is right then GOLD[GC] will bottom out around this level with a possible dip into the low 1240's next week. My EOY forecast is US$1380-

My Economic Activity Index is 96.57. It will be interesting to see how it ends the year.


Click the image to open in full size.




GC @ 1254.2
ES @ 2720.75





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