Seeking consistency

Leia · Oct 23, 2012, 1:28am

both timeframe indicators are long
previous two daily candles indicate rejection of lower prices at this time (hammer type formations), off previous months resistance (potential support now)
price has retraced to 50% of the previous 4 hourly up swing and printed a hammer formation candle representing a 50% entry of the two daily candles

order placed long @ 1.59 35, stop 1.58 95 (risk -40pips), usual three targets
target 1 = R1 = +40pips @ 1.59 75
target 2 = prev swing high @ 1.60 60 (+125pips, R3)
target 3 = trailing stop behind 4 hour swing highs

If order is triggered and target 1 achieved, the stops on the remaining parts of the position will be moved to breakeven

Leia · Oct 24, 2012, 1:34am

Quote:

Originally Posted by Leia

Both the daily and 4 hour trends are long
However both pairs posted daily trigger (shooting star type) candles on Friday, indicating rejection of higher prices at this time
As noted in my weekly look ahead post, NZD USD is at previous weekly resistance, which may add weight to taking a short position (AUD is at previous daily resistance)
I have entered orders to go short both of these pairs, against the prevailing trends on both of my time-frames, as both are far enough away from their 4 hourly 20ema's (elastic band theory, of re-tracement to the moving average when over extended) to allow me to achieve risk/reward of 1:1 (which is where I take a third of the risk off and move my stop to a breakeven position on the other two thirds). This is also at a higher price than I would be seeking a trigger 'long' to trade with the trend.

Orders are
NZD
entry 0.83 00, stop at 0.83 55 (risk -55pips), split into three parts
target 1 = R1 = 0.82 45
target 2 = recent daily resistance, potential support @ 0.81 50
target 3 trailing stop
AUD
entry 50% back into Fridays daily candle @ 1.05 70, stop 1.06 25 (risk -55 pips)
target 1 = R 1 = 1.05 15
target 2 = 1.04 00
target 3 trailing stop

Back in early September I noticed that this pair had reached previous weekly structure resistance and printed a daily 'rejection' candle that offered a counter trend short opportunity.
In-fact there were two offerings, both of which I traded for small (R1) profits, mt second two positions being stopped out for NIL
Having 'failed' twice, I didn't take the third daily trigger (whose high exceeded the previous two that I had traded, only to realise that its now surpassed T2 (of 150 pips R3)

Leia · Oct 24, 2012, 4:50am

Quote:

Originally Posted by Leia

order placed long @ 1.59 35, stop 1.58 95 (risk -40pips), usual three targets
target 1 = R1 = +40pips @ 1.59 75
target 2 = prev swing high @ 1.60 60 (+125pips, R3)
target 3 = trailing stop behind 4 hour swing highs

Order opened and stop taken out in a few minutes for full loss on all three parts of this trade set up (-40 pips)

Leia · Oct 27, 2012, 5:52am

Quote:

Originally Posted by Leia

I have 19 pairs on next weeks watch list (indicators consistent on Daily and 4 hour time frames at the moment)

short USD CHF 93 05 (93 65) 92 15, 90 50, 89 30
no trigger
long EUR USD 1.29 90 (1.28 90) 1.31 35, 1.32 75, 1.35 00
no trigger
long GBP USD 1.59 80 (1.59 10) 1.61 70, 1.63 00, 1.66 00
4H Xd short
long USD JPY 79.00 (78.60) 79.65, 80.60
broke up
long NZD USD 81 50 (81 10) 81 10, 82 20, 83 50
broke down
all of the above are indicating US dollar weakness and 'risk' on, which is far from the fundamental sentiment at the present time
long EUR GBP 80 95 (80 40) 81 40, 81 60, 82 20
broke down
long EUR NZD 1.59 35 (1.59 00) 1.60 50, 1.63 00, 1.65 00 (at level now, need trigger) broke down
long EUR AUD 1.26 15 (1.25 90) 1.27 30, 1.28 20, 1.30 00
broke down
long EUR JPY 1.02 20 (1.02 40) 1.04 10, 1.06 50
broke up
long EUR CAD - need a swing high on the 4hour chart
didn't take trigger offered. 4h now Xd short
long GBP CHF - need a swing high on the 4hour chart
broke up
long GBP CAD 1.58 10 ( 1.57 30) 1.59 45, 1.59 85, 1.60 80
see chart
long NZD JPY 64 50 (63 95) 65 20, 69 00
no retrace
long GBP JPY 1.26 50 ( 1.25 50) 1.28 20, 1.30 00, 1.31 70
no retrace
long CHF JPY 84.80 (84.20) 86.10, 87.60
no retrace, 4h now Xd short
long NZD CAD - need a swing high on the 4hour chart
no trigger
short CAD CHF - need a swing low on the 4hour chart
broke up to 100% retrace
short NZD CHF 76 00 (76 60) 75 30, 74 70, 73 00
no trigger
short AUD CHF 96 35 (96 60) 95 00, 94 40, 93 30
no trigger

A busy watch list but very little in the way of triggers.
With hindsight, only sound trigger was GBP CAD @ 1.58 25 (1.57 90). I didn't take it, but it hit target 3 about R7

Leia · Oct 27, 2012, 5:58am

from 19 pairs to just 5
I think that helps to explain the lack of triggers from the 19 pairs on last weeks watch list, most have had movements against the aligned trends, resulting in the shorter timescale (4 hour) crossing in the opposite direction to the long term one (daily). Infact only two of the 19 are still on this weeks:
long GBP CAD 1.59 30 (1.59 00) 1.60 80, 1.61 75 (nice move last week)
long AUD JPY 82.50 (82.10) 83.45, 84.60
long NZD CAD 0.81 20 (0.81 00) 0.82 15, 0.82 60
long AUD CAD awaiting next 4 hour swing high, to draw fib levels
short AUD NZD 1.26 30 (1.26 65) 1.25 40, 1.23 70
It is non farm payroll week, which often has little movement, until publication , right at the end on Friday afternoon

Leia · Oct 31, 2012, 2:49am

Both of my time-frame indicators are long
Price has retraced 61.8% of the previous weeks 4 hour move as well retested 50% level of the daily up move
A candle indicating rejection of lower prices at this time has printed offering an order entry:
1.60 60, stop 1.60 30 (risk -30pips) with three target levels
target 1 = R1 +30pips @ 1.60 90 (if opened and achieved, stops on remaining positions move to break even)
target 2 = 1.61 70 +140pips (R4), previous daily swing high
target 3 trailing stop behind 4hour swing lows as achieved

Leia · Oct 31, 2012, 2:54am

Pound Yen set up very similar to cable in the post above
Order to enter long placed @ 127.80, with stop at 126.90 (risk -90pips)
target 1 128.70 (R1, +90pips), if seen stops to breakeven on remaining two parts
target 2 129 60 (+180, R=2) @ previous daily swing high
target 3 trailing stop behind 4 hour swing lows

Leia · Nov 1, 2012, 5:27am

Quote:

Originally Posted by Leia

1.60 60, stop 1.60 30 (risk -30pips) with three target levels
target 1 = R1 +30pips @ 1.60 90 (if opened and achieved, stops on remaining positions move to break even)
target 2 = 1.61 70 +140pips (R4), previous daily swing high
target 3 trailing stop behind 4hour swing lows as achieved

Order removed as price has achieved target 2 without retracing to trigger entry level

Oct 23, 2012, 1:28am	#561
Leia Veteran Member Member Since Dec 2009 764 Posts	EUR NZD long both timeframe indicators are long previous two daily candles indicate rejection of lower prices at this time (hammer type formations), off previous months resistance (potential support now) price has retraced to 50% of the previous 4 hourly up swing and printed a hammer formation candle representing a 50% entry of the two daily candles order placed long @ 1.59 35, stop 1.58 95 (risk -40pips), usual three targets target 1 = R1 = +40pips @ 1.59 75 target 2 = prev swing high @ 1.60 60 (+125pips, R3) target 3 = trailing stop behind 4 hour swing highs If order is triggered and target 1 achieved, the stops on the remaining parts of the position will be moved to breakeven Attached Thumbnails

Oct 27, 2012, 5:58am	#565
Leia Veteran Member Member Since Dec 2009 764 Posts	watch list for week commencing October 29th from 19 pairs to just 5 I think that helps to explain the lack of triggers from the 19 pairs on last weeks watch list, most have had movements against the aligned trends, resulting in the shorter timescale (4 hour) crossing in the opposite direction to the long term one (daily). Infact only two of the 19 are still on this weeks: long GBP CAD 1.59 30 (1.59 00) 1.60 80, 1.61 75 (nice move last week) long AUD JPY 82.50 (82.10) 83.45, 84.60 long NZD CAD 0.81 20 (0.81 00) 0.82 15, 0.82 60 long AUD CAD awaiting next 4 hour swing high, to draw fib levels short AUD NZD 1.26 30 (1.26 65) 1.25 40, 1.23 70 It is non farm payroll week, which often has little movement, until publication , right at the end on Friday afternoon

Oct 31, 2012, 2:49am	#566
Leia Veteran Member Member Since Dec 2009 764 Posts	GBP USD long Both of my time-frame indicators are long Price has retraced 61.8% of the previous weeks 4 hour move as well retested 50% level of the daily up move A candle indicating rejection of lower prices at this time has printed offering an order entry: 1.60 60, stop 1.60 30 (risk -30pips) with three target levels target 1 = R1 +30pips @ 1.60 90 (if opened and achieved, stops on remaining positions move to break even) target 2 = 1.61 70 +140pips (R4), previous daily swing high target 3 trailing stop behind 4hour swing lows as achieved Attached Thumbnails

Oct 31, 2012, 2:54am	#567
Leia Veteran Member Member Since Dec 2009 764 Posts	GBP JPY long Pound Yen set up very similar to cable in the post above Order to enter long placed @ 127.80, with stop at 126.90 (risk -90pips) target 1 128.70 (R1, +90pips), if seen stops to breakeven on remaining two parts target 2 129 60 (+180, R=2) @ previous daily swing high target 3 trailing stop behind 4 hour swing lows Attached Thumbnails

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