Seeking consistency

This is a discussion on Seeking consistency within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; Originally Posted by Leia Unfortunately my long entry (post #495)@ 1.24 90 was stopped out on a re-tracement. Nevertheless price ...

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Old Sep 15, 2012, 2:46pm   #531
Joined Dec 2009
Re: eur usd long targets

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leia View Post
Unfortunately my long entry (post #495)@ 1.24 90 was stopped out on a re-tracement. Nevertheless price is looking good for my secondary target @ 1.26 80 at the moment

I have identified a few target areas for longs, which might even offer some counter trend short opportunities, pending price action ' trigger' candles:

1.26 90 prev daily high 26June
1.27 50 prev weekly high 18June and top of ascending 'channel'
1.28 22 descending resistance line from April
or perhaps 1.33 00 to 1.35 00 (no triggers to trade short, just a relentless devaluation of the USD)
Attached Thumbnails
eur-usd-targets.gif  
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Old Sep 15, 2012, 3:25pm   #532
Joined Dec 2009
Trending pairs to watch week commencing 17th Sept

Leia started this thread Summer is over
I notice that significantly more of my charts have aligned indicator direction this week, perhaps due to the end of the summer holidays for the market, or perhaps because of the fundamentals (devaluation of the USD until unemployment there holds below 8%)
What ever the reason(s) I am interested in the technical analysis and my daily and 4 hour moving average indicators are presently aligned on 20 pairs:

long EUR USD 1.29 40 as last week (no decent pull back to enter last week)
long GBP USD 1 61 10 same as EUR
short USD CAD 0.98 00 same as EUR
short USD CHF 0.94 00 same as EUR
long NZD USD @ weekly resistance, potential counter trend short to 82 30 or 81 00
long EUR GOLD
short USD JPY
long GOLD as last week, there was no trigger long last week
long SILVER as last week, I failed to take the trigger @ 33.40, watch 33.60 now
long EUR GBP as EUR, watch for 0.80 30
long EUR AUD above 1.22 25
long EUR JPY watch for 101.00
long EUR CAD
short GBP CHF
long CAD JPY as last week, I didn't take the deeper than 61.8% trigger watch 80.15
long NZD JPY watch for 64.10
long GBP JPY as CAD JPY
long CHF JPY as last week, I failed to take trigger last week. careful now as @ weekly resistance level
short CAD CHF
short AUD NZD as last week EUR, watch for 1.27 35 - care as at weekly support

attached are the two triggers which I failed to take (silver would now be at break even or better if I had chosen to enter at 50% of the trigger as its so big compared to those around it and CHF JPY is at about R3, probably having closed parts 1 and 2, with a trailing stop for part 3). I am not doing this because I 'would have, should have, could have' taken these trades as, with the benefit of hindsight, they would both have been winners, but because they demonstrate that my strategy (trading plan) is valid - providing I trade with it!
Attached Thumbnails
silver-long.gif   chf-jpy-long.gif  
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Old Sep 17, 2012, 8:44am   #533
Joined Dec 2009
NZD and AUD USD counter trend orders

Leia started this thread Both the daily and 4 hour trends are long
However both pairs posted daily trigger (shooting star type) candles on Friday, indicating rejection of higher prices at this time
As noted in my weekly look ahead post, NZD USD is at previous weekly resistance, which may add weight to taking a short position (AUD is at previous daily resistance)
I have entered orders to go short both of these pairs, against the prevailing trends on both of my time-frames, as both are far enough away from their 4 hourly 20ema's (elastic band theory, of re-tracement to the moving average when over extended) to allow me to achieve risk/reward of 1:1 (which is where I take a third of the risk off and move my stop to a breakeven position on the other two thirds). This is also at a higher price than I would be seeking a trigger 'long' to trade with the trend.

Orders are
NZD
entry 0.83 00, stop at 0.83 55 (risk -55pips), split into three parts
target 1 = R1 = 0.82 45
target 2 = recent daily resistance, potential support @ 0.81 50
target 3 trailing stop
AUD
entry 50% back into Fridays daily candle @ 1.05 70, stop 1.06 25 (risk -55 pips)
target 1 = R 1 = 1.05 15
target 2 = 1.04 00
target 3 trailing stop
Attached Thumbnails
nzd-usd-short-daily.gif   aud-usd-short-daily.gif  
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Old Sep 23, 2012, 11:56am   #534
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Re: NZD and AUD USD counter trend orders

Leia started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by Leia View Post
Orders are
NZD
entry 0.83 00, stop at 0.83 55 (risk -55pips), split into three parts
target 1 = R1 = 0.82 45
target 2 = recent daily resistance, potential support @ 0.81 50
target 3 trailing stop
AUD
entry 50% back into Fridays daily candle @ 1.05 70, stop 1.06 25 (risk -55 pips)
target 1 = R 1 = 1.05 15
target 2 = 1.04 00
target 3 trailing stop
AUD order removed as price moved down very quickly

NZD order opened and t1 achieved
I missed opportunity to move stop to break even on other two positions which are still open
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Old Sep 23, 2012, 12:05pm   #535
Joined Dec 2009
watch list for week commencing September 24th

Leia started this thread Pairs aligned between the daily and 4 hourly indicators at the moment are

long EUR USD 1.29 40
long GBP USD 1.62 00, however at weekly swing (2012 high), daily rejection bar printed Friday for counter trend trade
short USD CHF 0.93 40
long USD NZD 0.82 30 (I have counter trend short trades open)
long GOLD 1751, but at weekly resistance daily has printed rejection candle, possible counter trend entry
long SILVER 33.80
long EUR AUD 123.75
long EUR JPY 100.60
long EUR CAD 126.30
long GPB CAD 157.70
long NZD JPY 64.10
long GBP JPY 126.20
long CHF JPY 83.30
short CAD CHF 0.95 76 / 0.96 10
short AUD CHF 0.97 65
short AUD NZD 1.26 50
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Old Sep 24, 2012, 9:24am   #536
Joined Dec 2009
GBP USD counter trend (short )

Leia started this thread Both my daily and 4 hour time frame indicators are long
however price is quite a long way away from the daily moving averages and may retrace toward them (elastic band effect)
The daily candle formation on Friday was a 'shooting star' shape indicating rejection of higher prices at this time
The level rejected is also a significant weekly Swing High from which the 2012 high was made and price subsequently retraced considerably

I have therefore placed a counter trend order (short) 'playing' the daily candle

entry 1.62 10, stop 1.63 10 (risk -100 pips), split into three parts
part 1 target @ R1 = 1.61 10
part 2 target = 1.59 20 (prev. daily resistance, potential support
part 3 target = 1.54 00 (weekly swing Low) but if the order opens and achieves 1.61 10, I will trail the stops for both parts 2 and 3, rather than see the strong uptrend return and take the positions out for breakeven)
Attached Thumbnails
cable-weekly.gif   cable-daily.gif  
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Old Sep 27, 2012, 11:31am   #537
Joined Dec 2009
AUD USD short

Leia started this thread my daily trend indicator is short (marginally) but at 50 / 61.8% retracement of the previous up move and printed a daily candle yesterday indicating rejection of LOWER prices at this time
however
my 4 hour time frame is indicating short and the last 4 hour canlde printed is indicating rejection of higher prices at this time

I have therefore placed an order SHORT, which if it achieves yesterday low and makes a 'double bottom' for the next move higher, I will still take part of my position as profit and the rest at break even

The order is short at 1.03 90 with a stop above the candle high at 1.04 25 (risk -35)
I have split the order into three parts
part 1 profit target is 1.03 55 (reward =1, 35 pips)
part 2 at the previous daily swing low of 1.01 90
part 3 will trail behind 4 hour swing highs

As always, should the trade open and move in my favour by 35 pips I will close part 1 and move my stops down to a break even level on the remaining two parts
Attached Thumbnails
aud-usd-daily.gif   aud-usd-4-h-trigger.gif  
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Old Sep 27, 2012, 2:54pm   #538
Joined Dec 2009
Re: AUD USD short

Leia started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by Leia View Post
The order is short at 1.03 90 with a stop above the candle high at 1.04 25 (risk -35)
I have split the order into three parts
part 1 profit target is 1.03 55 (reward =1, 35 pips)
part 2 at the previous daily swing low of 1.01 90
part 3 will trail behind 4 hour swing highs
Order opened and stop hit for -35 pips
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Old Sep 27, 2012, 5:32pm   #539
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Re: NZD and AUD USD counter trend orders

Leia started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by Leia View Post
AUD order removed as price moved down very quickly

NZD order opened and t1 achieved
I missed opportunity to move stop to break even on other two positions which are still open
stop hit for at break even on second two parts, best was 0.81 80 (+120pips)
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Old Sep 29, 2012, 5:16pm   #540
Joined Dec 2009
Re: GBP USD counter trend (short )

Leia started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by Leia View Post
entry 1.62 10, stop 1.63 10 (risk -100 pips), split into three parts
part 1 target @ R1 = 1.61 10
part 2 target = 1.59 20 (prev. daily resistance, potential support
part 3 target = 1.54 00
daily trend is still long, 4 hour has crossed short, but price action is unconvincing. I have therefore moved my stop on all three positions to breakeven, despite not achieving R1 (+100 pips), as price did get to 1.61 17 on Friday, which is +93 pips.

I am not prepared to let a trade which has moved +93pips in my direction close out as a loser, but am OK if I get stopped out for NIL over the weekend
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gpb-usd-daily.gif   gpb-usd-4hour.gif  
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