Seeking consistency

Hi JahDave

Thank you for your constructive post

I understand the reason for a smaller target. My daily chart has a strong trend line, which could provide support around 0.79 40 and my 4Hour shows an 'area of interest' to join the dominant daily and 4hourly 'up' trend at last weeks swing high (previous resistance, potential support) around 0.79 60, which is also a nice fib re-tracement level (around the 50 - 61.8% zone)

My trading strategy dictates that should my trade open and move in my direction by an amount equal to the risk (ie 35 pips in this NZD USD) then I move my stop to breakeven.

Should this occur, I will move to breakeven if price hits 0.79 95, which is before either of the 'rejoin the trend' levels mentioned above

I will be watching price action on the 4H and daily chart for clues that indicate resumption of the 'long' trend, both to manage my short (if it opens) and to enter back in long

I hope the two snap shots make it clearer!

Leia, My Aussie target is 1.0375 However if it gets there then there will be a huge reversal from there...................... Good trading to you..............Leia,,,,,,,The USD on the index is going up and then down pretty strong..................... for a wave 2................ Mark it up,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Elliott Wave Rules,,,,,,,,,,,,,and I love it, It is good for reading mass social mood, and that is what moves the markets...........

Hi JahDave

I see your strategy is Elliot Wave based. That's very different to me, I like simple things.

My strategy is more 'plain vanilla'. I just look for trend (based on the 50 and 20 moving averages), recent support and resistance levels on the Daily time frame and price action (candle formation)

Any way, providing you are consistent with your approach your strategy will deliver superior returns over a succession of trades, since no-one can ever know where price is going next with certainty, you just have to accept the inevitable 'wrong' losing trades as the price for the 'right' winning ones.

Are the antipodean currencies due a 'correction' to lower prices before continuing higher, are they just going on up from here, or is this the start of a major leg lower?

Only time will tell...

My nzd trade has been stopped out by 10 pips (saw 0.80 75)

however both nzd & aud have printed nice 4H triggers

ndz usd short @ 0.80 40 STOP = 0.80 75 (-35) target 0.78 40 (+200) R= 5+
aud usd short @ 1.02 90 STOP = 1.03 30 (-30) target 1. 00 50 (+240) R= 8+

AUD USD has seen 1.02 50, which is +40pips from my 1.02 90 entry and therefore my trigger to move my stop on this trade to its break even position

NZD USD has seen 0.80 10, which is +30pips from my entry, no action is there for yet required on this pair (risk remains -35 pips to stop at 0.80 75)

Following the nfp news release this pair saw 0.79 82 (+58pips) and so I have also moved my stop to the entry (Break Even Level) on this trade

I will now monitor both of these pairs on the 4Hourly time-frame and trail my stop as 'obvious' levels form (such as swing highs below my present entry / stop level) or until my ambitious targets are reached.

As both are in strong 'up' trends I am expecting to be stopped out for NIL, but if this is the start of a reversal, I am very well positioned with these two trades

lets see what happens next week

Both pairs have printed Swing Highs on the 4 hour time frame, providing a reasonable place to trail my stops to, locking in approximately R2 (two times the number of pips risked)
AUD USD to 1.02 15 (+75pips) NZD USD to 0. 79 75 ( +65pips)

I notice that they have also both printed nice 'hammer' type candles (potential long triggers) on the daily chart, at reasonable levels (50% - 61.8% of their previous 4 hour 'up' swing) to rejoin the dominant daily long trend, so I quite expect my stops to be taken out in the next day or two...

Stops were hit soon after this post, netting 2 trades at R2, which I am very happy with for 'counter trend' trades

Price has not moved significantly higher (which was what I was expecting) or lower since, so may stay range bound for a while now. I am searching for other opportunities