Seeking consistency

This is a discussion on Seeking consistency within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; The daily and 4hour trends are long However, as identified in my weekly look ahead this pair is at an ...

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Old Jul 17, 2012, 9:38am   #441
Joined Dec 2009
CAD CHF short (counter trend)

Leia started this thread The daily and 4hour trends are long

However, as identified in my weekly look ahead this pair is at an interesting level (previous weekly Swing high) which has the potential to cause a significant re-tracement of the 4hourly and a smaller re-tracement on the daily time-frames

The last two days candle bars are of a 'shooting star' type indicating rejection of higher prices at this point in time and potentially a move lower for this pair

They also provide 'triggers' upon which my order open and stop loss levels may reasonably be defined

I have placed an order to short this pair at about 50% of yesterdays range @ 0.96 50
with a stop just above the high @ 0.97 10 (risk -60pips)
I have established a target at the confluence of the 61.8% re-tracement of the preceding daily up swing which is also a previous daily swing high that acted as resistance and may now become a support level @ 0.94 50 (reward +200pips)
R=3.

As always, should my order be opened and price move in my favour by my risk (ie to 0.95 90 I will move my stop to breakeven and thereafter trail at 'sensible' 4hourly resistance levels
Attached Thumbnails
cad-chf-short-weekly.gif   cad-chf-short-daily-trigger.gif  
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Old Jul 17, 2012, 9:44am   #442
Joined Dec 2009
EUR CAD long (counter trend)

Leia started this thread Very similar to the CHF the EUR CAD pair has printed daily rejection candles (hammer type) of lower prices at a significant weekly swing low, providing trigger for order entry and stop placement for a counter trend trade

I have placed a long order @ 1.24 00, stop 1.23 60 (risk -40pips) and target at 1.27 00 (reward +300 pips)
R=5
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eur-cad-daily-long-counter-trend-.gif  
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Old Jul 18, 2012, 9:22am   #443
Joined Dec 2009
Re: EUR CAD long (counter trend)

Leia started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by Leia View Post
I have placed a long order @ 1.24 00, stop 1.23 60 (risk -40pips) and target at 1.27 00 (reward +300 pips)
R=5
Price has seen 1.24 40 (+40pips), which being the same as my original risk for this trade dictates that I move my stop to a breakeven position
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eur-cad-order-open-break-even.gif  
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Old Jul 18, 2012, 2:16pm   #444
Joined Dec 2009
Re: EUR CAD long (counter trend)

Leia started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by Leia View Post
Price has seen 1.24 40 (+40pips), which being the same as my original risk for this trade dictates that I move my stop to a breakeven position
Stop hit for NIL on this trade
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Old Jul 19, 2012, 11:26am   #445
Joined Dec 2009
GBP JPY short trigger

Leia started this thread My daily trend is down
My 4hour is long, but the 20ema has turned down

Price appears to have rejected higher prices at this time on the daily time-frame, at 50% re-tracement of the previous daily down swing and the 20ems 'dynamic' resistance

The 4h chart has just printed a candle with a shooting star formation (albeit not with a wick considerably higher than previous prices) and possibly rejection the 4h 20ema as potential dynamic support now become resistance

I have placed an order short at the round 123.00, with a stop just above the 4h candle high at 123.30 (-30pips risk) with an initial target of recent daily lows at 122.05 (+95 pips) R=3 and a second target of the lows at 120.00 (300 pips) r=10

as always, should my trade be opened and achieve a reward of +1 (30 pips) @ 122.70 I will move to breakeven
Attached Thumbnails
gbp-jpy-daily-short-set-up.gif   gbp-jpy-4h-trigger.gif  
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Old Jul 19, 2012, 11:57am   #446
Joined Dec 2009
Re: GBP JPY short trigger

Leia started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by Leia View Post
I have placed an order short at the round 123.00, with a stop just above the 4h candle high at 123.30 (-30pips risk) with an initial target of recent daily lows at 122.05 (+95 pips) R=3 and a second target of the lows at 120.00 (300 pips) r=10
Trade opened and closed @ stop for -30 pips
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Old Jul 19, 2012, 2:57pm   #447
Joined Dec 2009
Re: CAD CHF short (counter trend)

Leia started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by Leia View Post
I have placed an order to short this pair at about 50% of yesterdays range @ 0.96 50
with a stop just above the high @ 0.97 10 (risk -60pips)
I have established a target at the confluence of the 61.8% re-tracement of the preceding daily up swing which is also a previous daily swing high that acted as resistance and may now become a support level @ 0.94 50 (reward +200pips)
R=3.
Trade opened and stop taken out for -60pips
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Old Jul 22, 2012, 8:16am   #448
Joined Dec 2009
Re: watch list for week commencing July 16th '12

Leia started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by Leia View Post
dir pair level of interest
short EUR USD 1.22 60
short GBP USD
long USD CHF 0.98 00
long GOLD EURO 1,288.0
short EUR GBP
short EUR NZD
short EUR AUD
short EUR JPY 97.50
short GBP CAD 1.58 15
short GBP NZD 1.96 00 (already traded this week of a R1 win)
short GPB JPY 123.30
short CHF JPY 80.84 or 81.25,watch price action
long NZD CHF
long AUD CHF

I also noticed two potential counter trend set ups on the daily time frame
long EUR CAD price is at support from 2010
short CAD CHF price is at a weekly swing high
I have just undertaken the same exercise for this week and also reviewed last weeks 'watch list'

In summary, whilst 5 of my 14 directions were right, none of them produced any obvious triggers (even with the benefit of hind-sight) and 2 of them were ignored because the lower time-frame trend (ma cross) changed during the week, to get into the trades. My two 'counter trend' trades were wrong, however I took them because I had acceptable triggers at previous significant support / resistance levels

Despite a bad week results wise, I haven't learned anything from last weeks price action that indicates to me that I need to make any changes to my trading plan
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Old Jul 22, 2012, 8:47am   #449
Joined Dec 2009
watch list for week commencing July 23rd '12

Leia started this thread dir pair level (as last week)
long OIL (no)
long EUR GOLD (yes)
short EUR GBP (y)
short EUR NZD (y)
short EUR AUD (y)
short EUR JPY (y)
long GBP CHF (n)
short GBP AUD 1.51 60 (n)
long AUD JPY 81.25 (n)
short CHF JPY (y)
long CAD CHF (n)
long AUD CHF (n)
long AUD NZD 1.29 00 (n)
long USD CHF (y)
short EUR USD (y)
short USD CAD 1.01 30 (n)
long NZD USD (n)
short USD JPY (n)
long AUD USD (n)

The EUR has been very weak for July against everything and since June against the AUD & NZD, possibly increasing the chance of a corrective pull back, so I will not be taking all of the eur 'short' positions that I have identified above unless they happen to appear in such a way that the first has achieved at least breakeven before the second presents itself
Attached Thumbnails
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Old Jul 29, 2012, 10:14am   #450
Joined Dec 2009
EUR NZD short 4H trigger

Leia started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by Leia View Post
dir pair level (as last week)
short EUR NZD (y)

The EUR has been very weak for July against everything and since June against the AUD & NZD, possibly increasing the chance of a corrective pull back, so I will not be taking all of the eur 'short' positions that I have identified above unless they happen to appear in such a way that the first has achieved at least breakeven before the second presents itself
The daily and 4H trends remain short
the 4H chart has pulled back between 50 and 61.8% of last weeks down swing move and to the approximate level of a previous minor support level which may become resistance
a 4H 'trigger' candle has printed indicating rejection of higher prices at this time, not quite making the preceding (this weeks) high

I have placed and order short @ 1.18 10 with a stop just above this weeks high at 1.18 50 (-40pips risk) with an initial target of the recent all time lows at 1.17 00 (+110 pips risk). R almost 3

My order was opened and stopped out (by 5 pips @ 1.18 55) before turning and moving through the ascending 4H trend-line to 1.17 35. So I took a 40pip loss, despite the trade set up being proved 'right'!

That is frustrating, but even with the benefit of hindsight, I do not see a 'better' way I could have traded this set up and so do not see any reason to make a change to my trading strategy. In-fact it demonstrates that even 'perfect' trade set ups, when you have patiently waited all week for them to appear, can lose
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eur-aud-dialy.gif   eur-aud-4h-trigger-result-.gif  
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