on vacation 
I am on vacation with those people and today i let them go on a trip by themselves, so I could take a break, because I am not too social and being too much around them was stressing me out.
But the vacation is working and I found out that today I slept 12 hours. Very good for me. I hadn't done it in years.
So I just woke up and opened up the EUR and I noticed it has fallen a lot more in the meanwhile: http://futuresource.quote.com/charts...M&b=CANDLE&st=
Quite rare to see such falls (rises on the Dollar Index chart above). If it hadn't blown out my account ten days ago, it would have done it last week for sure, because I would have kept on trying to pick a bottom, and would have doubled up if I had been proven wrong. That's a sure way to blow out your account: you just double up when you're wrong, and sooner or later you'll be wrong enough to lose everything. Even better: you bet everything on every trade, and you'll blow it out. I basically employ trading methods that ensure financial ruin. I have a tendency to do that. Even once I find methods that don't do that, I revert back to the old methods.
Anyway, today I am home, sleeping, but not just because these guys were tiring me with their company (they're quite easy to get along with, but they still tire me). Yesterday I started running like an idiot while going down some hills near the lighthouse, and I fell. It made me realize that I am not a kid any more and my legs aren't as quick as they used to be. So I now have a scratch near my elbow and something in my knee. Nothing broken. So that's a second good reason to do nothing. From now on, I'll skip the hiking and just stay at this house near the beach, the house where I had always planned to live. Of course in two weeks I'll have to go back to work.
The weather this year sucked so I am not sure if I am ready for a swim yet. I can barely sleep at night by how freezing it is. The water will definitely be cold, but maybe not freezing (not meant literally). That's the question. I can take 20 celsius degrees and a little less, but not too much less.
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Read: E.P. Chan, Cogneau - Hubner, Martin Sewell, Gail Tverberg. Search: expected shortfall, historical VaR, Monte Carlo VaR, extreme value theory.
Last edited by travis; May 17, 2010 at 7:12am.
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