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This is a discussion on my journal within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; i don't think you can judge results of a system from one day; After all, flipping a 50/50 coin to ...

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Old Nov 6, 2009, 9:34pm   #596
 
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i don't think you can judge results of a system from one day; After all, flipping a 50/50 coin to long and short and closing @ days end could produce a win or a loss on any particular day
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I'm on a boat mother****er.

GET YOUR TOWELS READY, ITS ABOUT TO GO DOWN.
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Old Nov 7, 2009, 1:21am   #597
 
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travis started this thread That's your strength right there, and quite uncommon, because at such a young age you're balanced enough to keep in your mind a statistical account of a long series of trades without letting losses affect you. That's why so many people cannot trade discretionary and you can instead.

Personally, I am done with this system. It did not seem very reasonable to begin with, and now that I've found out how much money it can lose (in line with all my discretionary trading: more losses in one day than gains in a whole week), I am discarding it altogether. It is true that with this quick discarding of things that don't work once, I would have discarded already all my profitable systems and would be left with nothing now, but I avoided this problem via backtesting and forward testing: it clearly shows me how one loss is followed by a win, and then I don't discard the system. You've got this statistical approach built-in in your own mind. I don't, because emotions get in the way: today's loss bothers me so much that it makes me throw away the system.

On the other hand, that's also conversely my strength: being quick at discarding things that don't seem to work came in handy in building dozens of systems. Testing, setting aside what worked, discarding what didn't... so on... endlessly.

----

Today I bought my laptop. First step towards quitting my job. I'll be able to travel and connect to a server to start my systems, taking just 30 minutes per day. I'll also be able to use it for power outages as its battery lasts much longer than the UPS for my desktop.

----

After today's loss on the delusional system, even worse if I consider that I've spent trading money to buy the laptop, I can sum this week up by saying that I'm down 1000 dollars compared to a week ago. Not good. But no disasters. Yet another positive week for my systems as a group. Not half as good as the previous good.

----

Why am I discarding systems so quickly and easily, you might ask. Well, because there's no digging required. The gold as far as systems is right under the stone. You lift it, and see if the system produces gold. If it doesn't, you move on to other stones and lift them. There's so many stones and so much gold, that you would just waste time by digging and digging into the same spot: there's great abundance of profitable systems. You should just go through new ones one concept per week. Spending longer means wasting your time.

Last edited by travis; Nov 7, 2009 at 1:39am.
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Old Nov 7, 2009, 11:55am   #598
 
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travis started this thread DAMN DELUSIONAL ******* SYSTEM...!

Yesterday my friends left, I got a little drunk, and it made me forget what had happened, but this morning I woke up after 11 AM and I realized how bad this delusional ******* system could actually behave, as it ultimately made me lose close to 400 dollars in just one delusional trade.

I have to hand it to you, and you, for warning me from the start: you were 100% right in everything you said:

1) I wasn't doing anything magic, nor complicated
2) I was simply operating on a "synthetic" EUR/GBP future position
3) Nothing guaranteed to me that because the EUR and GBP seemed like they were reversing vs the dollar, they were actually going to reverse, and further reverse with respect to one another: yesteday they didn't reverse in either sense, and they kept diverging all the way to 50 ticks.

I am not a genius, I am not autistic, I am nothing. Just like my personality disorder says, on that test page, or somewhere else, I can't find it right now, I go from feelings of great self-esteem to very low self-esteem. Today I am feeling like ****.

I read more, while looking for the feature of the narcissist, and I found this that might explain more about me, and it is slightly related to what I was saying about going from one extreme to the other (which also reminds me of borderline, yet I am not that for sure):

Quote:
The narcissist – wittingly or not – utilises people to buttress his self-image and to regulate his sense of self-worth. As long and in as much as they are instrumental in achieving these goals, he holds them in high regard, they are valuable to him. He sees them only through this lens. This is a result of his inability to love others: he lacks empathy, he thinks utility, and, thus, he reduces others to mere instruments.

If they cease to "function", if, no matter how inadvertently, they cause him to doubt his illusory, half-baked, self-esteem – they are subjected to a reign of terror. The narcissist then proceeds to hurt these "insubordinates". He belittles and humiliates them. He displays aggression and violence in myriad forms. His behaviour metamorphoses, kaleidoscopically, from over-valuing (idealising) the useful person – to a severe devaluation of same. The narcissist abhors, almost physiologically, people judged by him to be "useless".

These rapid alterations between absolute overvaluation (idealisation) to complete devaluation make long-term interpersonal relationships with the narcissist all but impossible.
And now, back to work: implementing the last 5 systems, and then I'll be done. Hopefully the markets will have mercy and let me rise again to enough cash to believe in my dream again. Or rather believe in my "plan".
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Old Nov 7, 2009, 1:26pm   #599
 
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travis started this thread Hoagy Carmichael
Mitchell Parish
Stardust

And now the purple dusk of twilight time
Steals across the meadows of my heart
High up in the sky the little stars climb
Always reminding me that we're apart

You wandered down the lane and far away
Leaving me a song that will not die
Love is now the stardust of yesterday
The music of the years gone by

Nat King Cole


Sometimes I wonder why I spend
The lonely night dreaming of a song
The melody haunts my reverie
And I am once again with you
When our love was new
And each kiss an inspiration
But that was long ago
Now my consolation
Is in the stardust of a song

Beside a garden wall
When stars are bright
You are in my arms
The nightingale tells his fairy tale
A paradise where roses bloom
Though I dream in vain
In my heart it will remain
My stardust melody
The memory of love's refrain

Chet Atkins
Stanley Jordan

Last edited by travis; Nov 7, 2009 at 1:39pm.
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Old Nov 7, 2009, 2:00pm   #601
 
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travis started this thread Josť Feliciano

Zorba's dance


Yesterday


Billie Jean





Last edited by travis; Nov 7, 2009 at 6:10pm.
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Old Nov 7, 2009, 4:53pm   #602
 
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travis started this thread Ok, very quickly before I forget (bath tub intuition). Refer to wikipedia for my definitions of "ideal arbitrage" and "statistical arbitrage".

Ideal arbitrage makes sense.
Immediate gain: you grab it. Can't argue against this.

Statistical arbitrage is nonsense.
My delusional system was indeed "statistical arbitrage", but whereas in forex the nonsense is revealed (while trading two different futures, you're actually only trading the relationship of one future to the other), in stocks and other securities the nonsense escapes you, so you might start trading a system that you think is "magic", but that's nothing but a relationship between the two stocks (only, unlike for forex, such product does not exist). In the end, you just end up spending a whole lot of money on commission and spread costs, without getting extra edge because of it. Only since it's so complex, you might not even realize it. All done with this crap for good.
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