my journal

This is a discussion on my journal within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; NEW VERSION (SET UP EUR HOURLY FOREX CHART WITH PIVOTS ON IB'S TWS) WITH TREND METHOD (between 4 PM and ...

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Old Nov 26, 2009, 7:47am   #851
 
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Re: my journal

travis started this thread NEW VERSION

(SET UP EUR HOURLY FOREX CHART WITH PIVOTS ON IB'S TWS)

WITH TREND METHOD (between 4 PM and 7 PM CET)
ENTRIES
GO LONG/SHORT if the day is green/red and price goes through pivot levels

EXITS
bracket order of half a pivot level away (whichever level is closer)


AGAINST TREND METHOD (between 7 PM and 11 PM CET)
ENTRIES
GO LONG/SHORT if price >150 ticks lower/higher than previous top/bottom and we touch a pivot line (if there's no pivot line you can't trade)

EXITS
1) Stoploss at half a pivot level away
2) Close position at 8 AM
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Old Nov 26, 2009, 7:55am   #852
 
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Re: my journal

travis started this thread Oh wow, I forgot. The systems would still be short for 5 minutes. Then, after 8 AM CET I would close the SHORT AGAINST TREND position and would go SHORT (because we're red, defined earlier) upon breaking of pivot line P, with a 30 ticks take profit and stoploss.
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Old Nov 26, 2009, 7:58am   #853
 
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Re: my journal

travis started this thread Actually it broke it already and I am short. So here's how my position will evolve. I will set a take profit at 30 ticks lower. The stoploss I won't do because today I am too desperate. I can't afford losing 30 ticks.

So, 1.5080-1.5013=67 ticks

67/2=33

I'll put a take profit at 1.5080-33=1.5047

If it works out, I'll be at almost 6k, as I had hoped yesterday. Now I'll shut everything down and go to work. Hopefully my take profit will be reached.
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Old Nov 26, 2009, 10:13am   #854
Joined Apr 2008
Re: my journal

Quote:
Originally Posted by travis View Post
In the past few days I've lost over 50% of my capital, in case you didn't notice.
Well if it's any consolation, I've now joined the club. Marge called this morning. Have about 50% left from where I started before this whole sorry trade. Really should've cut this one loose a looong time ago, but no. Thought this is different, a long term carry etc. (Not at that margin/leverage it ain't son!) Really kicking myself now for allowing it to get this far. Well predictably I've got this incredible urge to go and revenge trade now to make it all back quickly... but that virtually never works so is a no-no. Hence I resolve I'm not going to do it. I'm going to instead sit on my hands and do nothing for a few days at least, analyse what's happened and get over the event first, go back to the drawing board a bit, work on my trading system etc...

(This experience just again goes to show the importance of discipline -- I was essentially slack and poorly disciplined in this trade, with no clear stop losses, no clear targets, basically just a random discretionary trade based on a new idea without a proper plan of how I intended to manage it etc, so hence I didn't know when I was going to and indeed didn't act when neccesary (as I should've) and managed to turn what was at one point a 20% winner (!!) into a 50% loser... I also did the classic mistake of averaging into a loser... If I'd left my *original* position alone and didn't add to it, I'd have been at least not margin called yet and might've had some further room to maneouver (or just close the damn trade out at a lesser loss.) Seems I just became a demonstration of my first signature quote, how humiliating/humbling... )
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"Most people don't lose because of what the market does but because of how they respond to the markets ... and how they handle losing trades." - From a review of "What I learned losing a Million Dollars" by Jim Paul and Brendan Moynihan.

Last edited by wprins; Nov 26, 2009 at 10:22am.
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Old Nov 26, 2009, 11:04am   #855
 
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Re: my journal

travis started this thread I am honored that you've been a member for over a year, wrote only 14 posts and most of them on my journal. That's like my highest achievement so far, as far as the journal goes. It's like the best compliment I could ever receive from anyone.

I am sorry you joined the club. We have very similar problems. Everything you say applies to me (not clear entries nor exits, etc.). What do you think of my last system (above)? Don't you think we could work on it together? Or do you trade different markets? Do you have any objections? Does it suck so badly that you won't even reply to my proposal?

It seems to have very clear as far as entries and exits. I wonder if it'll really take me to 10k from 5k I am at right now.

snap.jpg

Today I had a take profit at 1.5047, and it got down to 1.5052. It sucks. I hope it will hit my take profit in the near future.

I don't know about you but my whole problem until now has been that I don't want to go with the trend, but only against the trend, and that I don't use stoplosses. I have enough knowledge to be profitable. 12 years of observing the markets is enough.

No, I don't have enough knowledge until I'll be profitable. I want to be profitable, and if I am not, it's because there's something that i've been missing until now. Maybe knowledge of myself.

Last edited by travis; Nov 26, 2009 at 12:01pm.
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Old Nov 26, 2009, 12:17pm   #856
 
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Re: my journal

travis started this thread NEW VERSION

(SET UP EUR HOURLY FOREX CHART WITH PIVOTS ON IB'S TWS)

WITH TREND METHOD (between 8 AM and 7 PM CET)
ENTRIES
GO LONG/SHORT if the day is green/red and price goes through pivot levels

EXITS
bracket order of one third of a pivot level away (whichever level is closer)


AGAINST TREND METHOD (between 7 PM and 11 PM CET)
ENTRIES
GO LONG/SHORT if price >150 ticks lower/higher than previous top/bottom and we touch a pivot line
(if there's no pivot line on IB's chart, you can't trade)

EXITS
1) Stoploss at half a pivot level away
2) Close position at 8 AM

Last edited by travis; Nov 26, 2009 at 12:23pm.
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Old Nov 26, 2009, 4:32pm   #857
 
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Re: my journal

travis started this thread Ok, guys, pivots worked today as well. Just look at this picture. I don't need to waste any words:
Attached Thumbnails
snap1.jpg  
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Old Nov 26, 2009, 4:39pm   #858
 
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Re: my journal

travis started this thread Ok, i am about to change my system all over again. I just seized a good opportunity with a long trade and that obviously didn't respect my system, because according to it I should only go short from here, since we're red today.

But there's great potential to the upside. Obviously so, by looking at the highly correlated ES and CL (to the EUR), and even the GBP is way too oversold to keep on falling. Falling the downtrend now would be stupid. Besides, we've been falling for longer than 12 hours, so that was my old definition of overstretched.

There's bullish patterns on the ES and CL. No sense in wasting a LONG entry.
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Old Nov 26, 2009, 4:54pm   #859
 
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Re: my journal

travis started this thread I'm going to reason it all out before I post any more versions of my discretionary system. From now on, no written rules. But reasoning yes. Once I'll figure out what I am doing that works, I'll write it down. Certainly I've got to go more WITH the trend and take quicker profits. And also look more at pivots.
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Old Nov 26, 2009, 5:03pm   #860
 
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Re: my journal

travis started this thread One needs to learn to enter and exit quickly from positions without believing firmly in one or the other position, like i've been doing. Also, I need the 1-minute chart to evaluate the oversold-overbought state when i am entering. I can't just enter what the 1-hour candle looks good. But I can't ignore that candle either.
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