my journal

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Old Dec 9, 2009, 6:41pm   #1261
 
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Re: my journal

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Old Dec 9, 2009, 6:42pm   #1262
 
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Re: my journal

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Old Dec 9, 2009, 6:43pm   #1263
 
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Re: my journal

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Old Dec 9, 2009, 6:44pm   #1264
 
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Re: my journal

Yamato started this thread Hopefully it will be over in less than 30 minutes like my best trades so far, instead of a few hours like the worst trades (the longest one was 5 hours, the shortest one 14 minutes).
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Old Dec 9, 2009, 6:46pm   #1265
 
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Re: my journal

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Old Dec 9, 2009, 6:47pm   #1266
 
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Re: my journal

Yamato started this thread yeah, this was a good one: everything looks in favor except the EUR daily chart being so oversold.

ES about to break support, which is perfect because if it does this trade will be a win.
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Old Dec 9, 2009, 6:52pm   #1267
 
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Re: my journal

Yamato started this thread The ES high-low values are all screwed up on TWS, or what? It lists a low of 1085, and then on my chart it's at... i gotta figure this out...
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Old Dec 9, 2009, 6:54pm   #1268
 
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Re: my journal

Yamato started this thread this mother ****er keeps on giving me the wrong colors and for hours I've thought the CL on my "correlated" chart was the ES. That's why it was moving so much...
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Old Dec 9, 2009, 7:00pm   #1269
 
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Re: my journal

Yamato started this thread Ok. I have not found a way to fix it and customize charts on TWS that have multiple symbols. However now I'll know the purple one is the CL, the white line is the ES, and the GBP is blue.

Also, in the meanwhile, correlated ones have been rising for the past 10 minutes, but the EUR is still showing a profit of 60. This means that the fact that it had risen much more than the GBP for the day is now paying off. But for how long more will it help me? Or will they all resume the fall?
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Old Dec 9, 2009, 7:01pm   #1270
 
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Re: my journal

Yamato started this thread They did resume the fall, as I was writing, without knowing it. Now making 120. Maybe this trade will be less than half an hour.
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Old Dec 9, 2009, 7:01pm   #1271
 
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Re: my journal

Yamato started this thread Making 200
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Old Dec 9, 2009, 7:06pm   #1272
 
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Re: my journal

Yamato started this thread Pretty good: thanks, moving averages. Thanks, pivots. Thanks, reader who told me about pivots. Thanks, everyone (to all the readers who helped me get disciplined, simply by caring). And thanks to all the sniper movies that I've watched.

The trade lasted 21 minutes in total. I was confident about it from the start. No uncertainties today (I've felt the same before 2000 dollars losses though).

snap1.jpg

Here's my trades as of today:

TRADES:
20091130: takeprofit
20091130: takeprofit
20091201: early exit with 1 tick profit
20091202: stoploss
20091203: takeprofit
20091204: early exit with 5 ticks loss
20091207: takeprofit
20091208: takeprofit
20091209: takeprofit
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Old Dec 9, 2009, 7:18pm   #1273
 
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Re: my journal

Yamato started this thread Some pictures of my rifle and some of my best shots.
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Old Dec 9, 2009, 7:52pm   #1274
 
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How could I ever get from 10k to 5k?

Yamato started this thread Hey... I did all these amazing sniper trades and I am still at less than 6k... by the way, how did I get from 10k to less than 5k in the first place? It happened so quickly that I don't remember.

Right... I vaguely remember I made a trade on the CL and maybe one on the EUR. Each one must have caused me a loss of 2000 dollars or something like that. Do you realize that to recover from that 4000 dollars loss, I'd have to win 20 sniper trades in a row? Was it worth it to be wrong twice and lose an amount equivalent to being wrong 20 times?

How did I ever get to trade so badly?

WRONG ENTRIES
Simple. First of all, I was doing the opposite of what I am doing now. Since I wanted to pick the exact tops and bottoms, I ignored the moving averages, and when I entered a position both of them were against me rather than in favor of the trade. Can you believe this? It's all true.

WRONG EXITS WHEN LOSING
Also, I ignored pivots. But this only explains why I was wrong more often than now. Now why did I lose so much when I was wrong? Not only did I not have a stoploss, but I doubled up when I saw my position was losing.

WRONG EXITS WHEN WINNING
Another question is: why did I make so little (200 dollars or so) when I was right? Simple: when the trade was going against me and I was doubling up my positions I would get so scared that when it turned profitable I wouldn't miss the opportunity of getting out of it at a profit, having experienced thousands of dollars in the red.
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Old Dec 9, 2009, 7:58pm   #1275
 
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Re: my journal

Yamato started this thread Here's my trades as of today and the time (CET) they took place:

TRADES:
20091130 17.20sh to 17.30sh: takeprofit
20091130 21.50sh to 01.00sh: takeprofit
20091201 17.50sh to 18.50sh: early exit with 1 tick profit
20091202 18.40sh to 00.15sh: stoploss
20091203 08.10sh to 08.30sh: takeprofit
20091204 10.40sh to 13.00sh: early exit with 5 ticks loss
20091207 16.10sh to 16.30sh: takeprofit
20091208 17.30sh to 19.00sh: takeprofit
20091209 18.40sh to 19.00sh: takeprofit

No conclusions can be drawn from these trades (but it's good to keep track of the hours), except maybe that one should not start a trade at around 22.00 CET, but this i knew from before and not from my 3 hours long profitable trade.

I'LL KEEP THE LONG LASTING TRADES, BECAUSE OVERALL STILL PROFITABLE
I consider any trade lasting longer than half an hour a bad trade, even though it may be profitable. So far, 4trades out of 9 lasted less than half an hour and they were all profitable. It could make sense to implement a rule that exits after 30 minutes, but since even longer trades may have a profitable bias, I don't feel like getting rid of them: even if the long lasting trades are just a bit more than 50%, I shouldn't discard the longer lasting trades, because overall they will be profitable. Also, the only way to really find out (easily) is to keep them, and so far they're overall profitable, so I am keeping them.

THE POWER OF THIS SYSTEM: LIMITED LOSSES AND GREAT ACCURACY
Now you understand that with such accuracy, I'll be able to increase my contracts as much as I feel like. Also, what will allow me to increase my contracts, is that I know exactly how much I will lose at the most. So, with everything taken care of, I just have to focus on my accuracy.

INCREASE YOUR ACCURACY AND THEN INCREASE YOUR CONTRACTS
Why would you care about having a 75% chance of making 100 ticks and a 25% chance of losing 100 ticks, when you can have a 95% percent chance of making 20 ticks and a 5% chance of losing 20 ticks. This is what I had missed, one of the many things I didn't understand until now. What matters is that you increase your accuracy. Once you do that, you can increase the number of contracts and that will do the rest. Why should you look for hard 100 ticks, when you have very easy 20 ticks? You just increase your accuracy and then you can increase the number of contracts, and not have to worry about anything else. One trade per day.

RISK/REWARD IS CRAP
As I said before, all this insisting, by everyone, on "risk/reward" as the major concept is crap: the major concept is accuracy, % of wins. The risk/reward talk, risk/reward babble, is misleading at best. You'll never learn crap if you think about that... maybe people tell you in order to make it harder for you to understand. The accuracy talk is simple and straightforward: how many do you get right? Less than half? Think of doing the opposite. But most of all: get a gun (a bracket order of any size you like) and keep using that same exact gun (after you've decided which size a gun you want) and your accuracy can't but improve over time. You will be the one fixing your trading so that your accuracy improves. But people instead tell you "always know your risk/reward" so these jerks make you waste 10 years trying to figure out what the hell this risk/reward is, while all they'd have to say: practice shooting at the markets with the same bracket order. But hell no... they are idiots. Don't know how to explain, don't care to explain... all because they're stupid and didn't care to understand in the first place. **** Gaspar Gomez! And **** the ****in' Diaz brothers! **** 'em all! I bury those cockroaches!

Last edited by Yamato; Dec 9, 2009 at 8:40pm.
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