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This is a discussion on my journal within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; Ok, I have news. The guy with the radio and the other lady got moved to another room so now ...

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Old Oct 13, 2009, 4:08pm   #231
 
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travis started this thread Ok, I have news. The guy with the radio and the other lady got moved to another room so now I am alone, with no one bothering me. I don't know for how long. But certainly he got what he deserved. He got moved to a room with 5 people, very noisy room, where everyone is a slacker except the boss, who's there with them in order to make sure they work at least a little bit, and he got moved there because the boss knows he doesn't have to check on me, and that I am particularly disturbed by noise. So finally I get some fair treatment. On the other hand today I'm losing money in the markets, which I can take, after the good previous days.
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Old Oct 13, 2009, 5:08pm   #232
 
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travis started this thread I want to dedicate this video to my former roommate, and congratulate myself for not losing my temper. And now that mother ****er can go to hell as far as I am concerned. I was a perfect gentleman to him, and have no regrets.

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Old Oct 13, 2009, 5:32pm   #233
 
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travis started this thread You cannot allow yourself to ever think that you will not make a mistake on a given trade

You see, one important thing that we never get, or that at least I never got is the following. With futures (but also with stocks) there is NEVER a trade worth betting your whole capital, there is never a trade so sure as to bet so much and keep it open so long that if you are wrong you blow out your account. You ALWAYS have to be able to afford being wrong.

That is exactly where my system never went wrong. It always invests a fraction of the capital available on each trade and system, and if it invests everything, it is still able to close the trade long before blowing out the account. On the other hand, even just now, I often see situations where I am so confident that I would double up and triple the investment, and more, with as much capital as I have available. I don't know why it happens, but I always fail to realize that if I happen to be wrong, no matter how small the probability of that, I'll blow out my account. There are NO trades that are worth taking up your whole capital and NO trades that are worth saying "I am so sure that I bet everything I have on it". And guess what: I remember saying this sentence at least 10 times this year, and investing accordingly (and I blew out my account over 5 times in the past year and half). Especially with futures, where every trade that is taking your whole capital is actually taking ten times as much capital as you have.

In other words, the principle is simple, but I still forget it after 12 years of losses, and it is that you cannot enter a trade where if you don't win you're going to lose your whole account (because you will not have the guts to take a smaller loss). You cannot allow yourself to ever think that you will not make a mistake on a given trade. The system can take losses - it doesn't have this problem. Losses do not represent a trauma for him, they do not destabilize it.

Last edited by travis; Oct 13, 2009 at 5:39pm.
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Old Oct 13, 2009, 6:26pm   #234
 
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travis started this thread Ok, and now the milk has been taken care of as well. Actually, there is a maid / cleaning lady who comes twice a week, but she doesn't like to go shopping and buy milk or water, because they are heavy to carry. Another one of these sluts that I tend to come across... So I had to think of something, because I can't keep going to buy one liter of milk every day, or 2 liters of milk every 2 days, or 3 liters of milk every 3 days, which is the most I can carry. I called and I found a nearby store that delivers to your house (for free). I told them I will buy 30 liters of milk once a month, so I finally solved this problem once and for all. Likewise, I will buy from that store everything I need and fulfill my dream of never having to leave my home again. Here's what I'm gonna tell them when they show up with the milk:


Last edited by travis; Oct 13, 2009 at 6:33pm.
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Old Oct 13, 2009, 6:44pm   #235
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by travis View Post
You cannot allow yourself to ever think that you will not make a mistake on a given trade

You see, one important thing that we never get, or that at least I never got is the following. With futures (but also with stocks) there is NEVER a trade worth betting your whole capital, there is never a trade so sure as to bet so much and keep it open so long that if you are wrong you blow out your account. You ALWAYS have to be able to afford being wrong.

That is exactly where my system never went wrong. It always invests a fraction of the capital available on each trade and system, and if it invests everything, it is still able to close the trade long before blowing out the account. On the other hand, even just now, I often see situations where I am so confident that I would double up and triple the investment, and more, with as much capital as I have available. I don't know why it happens, but I always fail to realize that if I happen to be wrong, no matter how small the probability of that, I'll blow out my account. There are NO trades that are worth taking up your whole capital and NO trades that are worth saying "I am so sure that I bet everything I have on it". And guess what: I remember saying this sentence at least 10 times this year, and investing accordingly (and I blew out my account over 5 times in the past year and half). Especially with futures, where every trade that is taking your whole capital is actually taking ten times as much capital as you have.

In other words, the principle is simple, but I still forget it after 12 years of losses, and it is that you cannot enter a trade where if you don't win you're going to lose your whole account (because you will not have the guts to take a smaller loss). You cannot allow yourself to ever think that you will not make a mistake on a given trade. The system can take losses - it doesn't have this problem. Losses do not represent a trauma for him, they do not destabilize it.
Hey Travis; I'll get back to you on that PM later today...
I did some research and i've found a way to statistically know the probability of a given market moving x% in any given day and i'd worked that into the system to identify the second custom indicator which indicates a totally oversold day based on volatility calculations!
Wooo We Gon' Be rich Travis
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Old Oct 13, 2009, 8:09pm   #236
 
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travis started this thread Well, yeah, hopefully. I am trying to not get too excited, so let me remind myself that since I started trading in 1997 I am still down about 40 thousand euros. And that in 2008-2009 I blew out my account over 5 times. And that I last engaged in discretionary trading about two weeks ago, causing myself (documented live on this journal) a loss of 50% of my risk capital (which is also my entire capital).
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Old Oct 13, 2009, 10:30pm   #237
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Originally Posted by travis View Post
... I can't keep going to buy one liter of milk every day, or 2 liters of milk every 2 days, or 3 liters of milk every 3 days, which is the most I can carry...
Travis, no offence intended but *why* can't you buy 1 or 2 or 3 liters of milk every one or 2 or 3 days? This is what I/we do, it's just life! Why does it bother you, apart from the fact that it's a chore? (But then, everybody's faced with the same bother there, and after all, there's lots of chores in life, it's not worth getting wound up about them, is it?! Having said that, if you can get a supermarket to deliver then by all means go for it! Though, I must wonder how you're going to deal with 30 liters of milk to keep it from going bad/use it etc.... Do you have a very large fridge? )

BTW, regarding your comment about not being able to afford thinking you're not going to make a mistake: I agree, and that is to me a restatement of the first part of a key traders rule "Cut your losses short...", so good job, you're making these lessons your own.
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Old Oct 13, 2009, 11:16pm   #238
 
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travis started this thread I agree with you on most things. You made me wonder about something I've been wondering about, even today, and that is: is it a good idea to optimize your life and get rid of all chores, so you basically won't have to do anything ever again in your life and everything will be automated?

In principle it would seem a great idea, to automate your life entirely and make it as efficient as possible. But then you will turn into Howard Hughes and say "come in with the milk" repeatedly, and won't have any fun for your entire life. Or even worse you could be in a situation similar to that portrayed in the movie "Matrix" where these guys are actually not living any more, but they lead an imaginary life, which is perfect.

My conclusion is that I don't know... but if I have to draw a conclusion right now I would say that it's only optimal to optimize your life up to a point, after which it gets so boring that you need to get rid of some of the optimization and become more human and imperfect in order to enjoy it a little more.

Also, if you stopped buying milk, and stopped doing other chores, you might lose strength, the strength required to do not only those unpleasant chores but also required to do many other pleasant things. And that in turn may ruin your life, and you will have to resort to your previous lifestyle to make it happy again. For example, if I stopped seeing people by not going shopping, then my only occasion to see them would be when I go swimming, but then I may be so unused to seeing and been seen by people that I might feel uncomfortable getting into the water in front of the whole beach (a bunch of people sitting there and getting tan). I know because it's happened before. So, by going to buy milk every day, despite the fact that it seems a useless pain in the ass, I am actually getting used to being around people, which will benefit me when I have to get into the water and don't want to feel uncomfortable being around so many people.

Yet the perfectionists may not be able to reverse the process of optimizing everything. This is just like what happens to me at the restaurant. Once I've decided what the best dishes are (the best menu choices), and no matter how often I go, I'm always getting those dishes. And, by the way, I always go to that same restaurant (because I rank it as the best one). After about a year or two, I start telling the waitress to decide the menu for me, because I'm bored with my own choices, but I am unable to choose differently, knowing which are my favorite dishes, and yet I am not happy at all with my dinner, even though it's my favorite restaurant and my favorite dishes. So then I'll either get the waitress to pick for me, or I have to go to the second best restaurant, and I'll do that for a year (and always get the same food, again).

I tend to do this to every field of my life, even when I am the beach (my favorite beach), and I enter into the water. I have found the most efficient spot, where I step into the water in the most efficient steps (there's rocks, and other dangers). This was taught to me by my dad once again: that there is a best way to do everything, and that it's not ok to do things randomly, but you must find the most efficient way for whatever you are doing and be methodical about it.

Having said this, I still think the optimization of getting food and milk (I get the milk that expires in a few months, not the fresh one, it tastes just as good to me) delivered to you is an ok optimization, even though the delivering business may get out of control and I may expand it to all aspects of my life, even women (I already did, in part, get women delivered at home, but I couldn't get much done with them, because they weren't prostitutes).

To think of it more, even people who have swimming pools built at their homes, are bringing this optimization quite far. So are people with maids living with them. I mean, not just "sick" perfectionist people like me are in danger but pretty much everyone.

Last edited by travis; Oct 13, 2009 at 11:39pm.
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Old Oct 13, 2009, 11:41pm   #239
 
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One time Travis; i went food shopping (For first time in ages) and i walked down forgetting about the actual shopping; Got like a trolly full of things to eat, check out i had 11 bags and then thats when i realised i had to walk home with them... It was like that 'Biggest man competition' where they have to carry stuff 10m; stop, have a break, restart. I live about 1 mile away from that shop aswell; was totally embarrasing walking home; It was a case of running with 6; Dropping, getting the other 5 and catching up.

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Old Oct 14, 2009, 5:46am   #240
 
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travis started this thread Wow, interesting how that doesn't prevent you from being a good trader. I could never forget something like that. I am constantly calculating all the consequences of my actions, even when I sleep. That's why I can't sleep. I just got up in the middle of the night because a dream didn't go as planned.

There was this girl, C.P.. It ended like this. My former girlfriend was leaving the runway in her car. She was allowed there because she was a travel agent. I was supposed to board on a plane alone and she had walked me there, but as we were on our way to the plane, she had made friends with other male passengers, so I was upset and I had let her go into the plane, while talking to them, and didn't actually go in myself. But she carried my bag inside it.

The plane left with my bag and without me. She told me so while sitting at the wheel of her car. I told her I knew and I didn't care because I only had some swimsuit and goggles in it. Some strangers were leaning towards her and me and were listening to our conversation, and I said to them: "Do you mind giving me some privacy and letting me talk to... whom I still consider my girlfriend?!". I was really upset this time so they stopped looking and listening.

She was slightly crying as usual, but as usual that didn't mean that she loved me or that she wanted any kind of future with me. That's what drives me mad about this girl: she leads me on and makes me waste a lot of time trying in vain. So she was crying and her makeup was melting and it made her look ugly. By the way, I would never cry for someone I don't love, and I don't even cry for someone I love, so I guess to me loving only means owning that person, or rather having her at my disposal. So she was crying and her makeup was melting and it made her look ugly, but for some reason I still wanted to own her, which is to say "I loved her".

Then I woke up, maybe because there was some garbage truck in the street below me or maybe because I understood, once again, that our love story was over, which as usual wouldn't prevent me from trying to get her back in the future, just like I've been trying to find out how to be profitable with discretionary trading, and have been failing, but still persistently trying for 12 years. Until now since maybe I found a substitute: automated trading. Maybe I should go for automated loving.

But it will have to be manually executed by me. It would consist of an excel sheet with a bunch of rules to be followed at all times. But now I'm thinking that it wouldn't work, because the essential part of automated trading is back-testing and that cannot be done with automated loving. I don't have the data first of all of my girlfriends' actions, and the girlfriends are like a few stocks, whereas to understand the trend I need the indexes, which I do not have. Also, whereas stock indexes are independent from my actions, so I can count on them starting somewhere and getting somewhere else even though I trade them, girlfriends will change their actions depending on my actions. Why can't I just buy a woman, with lifelong installments? Or rather rent one, which is the same thing? Now I'll try to go back to sleep. How much does she want? How much do I need to buy C.P.? Will I then still want her, once I can buy her? I hope so. I hope so both, that I can buy her and still want her then.

Last edited by travis; Oct 14, 2009 at 6:30am.
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