my journal

This is a discussion on my journal within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; As long as the host always opens one of the doors and shows a goat. Because if he only does ...

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Old Jan 7, 2010, 10:39pm   #2116
 
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Re: my journal

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As long as the host always opens one of the doors and shows a goat. Because if he only does it when he cares to, then he could be tricking you in order to prevent you from winning the car.

I've been thinking about it for 10 minutes and I still don't get it. I would say that your probability goes from 1 out of 3, to... ok, I think I get it. The video above wasn't clear to me. I would explain it like this: you have two doors, their prob is 66% to have the car, so you should pick the collective 66% when you're given the opportunity. It's as if you were given the opportunity to choose two doors instead of one.

Last edited by Yamato; Jan 7, 2010 at 10:58pm.
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Old Jan 7, 2010, 11:07pm   #2117
 
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Re: my journal

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall

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Old Jan 7, 2010, 11:43pm   #2118
 
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Re: my journal

Yamato started this thread Well, I guess trading is less dangerous than card counting in Las Vegas.

Anyway, here's the "diversified" system present situation and development:

1) place bets on the hourly AND 15 minute chart and leave them open until they hit either order

A) at 22 CET bet on TREND REVERSAL

B) before 20 CET bet on TREND CONTINUATION (enter with daily trend, after correction)

...something like that: find a way to make it work

Typical overnight reversal (hourly chart at 22 CET) triggering a SHORT at around 22 CET:

snap1.jpg



Typical intraday continuation after retracement (hourly chart at 22 CET, same chart as above) triggering a LONG at around 18 CET, entry circled in red:

snap.jpg

Both of these trades have the same profit target (their entry points are the reciprocal profit targets), and a stoploss which is less than half the profit target.

If I can limit myself to making these trades, at 18 and at 22, on all markets, I should be able to stay profitable on a weekly basis. Some days will be red.
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Old Jan 8, 2010, 9:57am   #2120
 
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Re: my journal

Yamato started this thread I closed yesterday's LONG on the GBP for a profit of a few hundreds (balance a bit over 3000).

I opened a LONG on the ZN. It looks like it will bounce up on this pretty good support (hourly chart):

snap1.jpg

Besides, it's highly oversold on the daily chart:

snap2.jpg

I am planning on keeping it open for at least 10 hours, until I make a profit from 300 to 1000. Stoploss? I didn't place one, but I guess it would be a bit lower than support. Only I don't want surprises like on the CL, where the stoploss got executed 40 ticks away on a false breakout and I lost 3000 for no reason.

Last edited by Yamato; Jan 8, 2010 at 10:02am.
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Old Jan 8, 2010, 11:43am   #2121
 
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Re: my journal

You may be right on this one...short-term, but I would definitely use a stop. We may be on the verge of a major shift in long rates... with yields rocketing
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Old Jan 8, 2010, 3:35pm   #2122
 
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Re: my journal

Yamato started this thread Wow, you were quite right. Thanks for the information. I closed the ZN for a profit of 500. Made another 300 on the GBP, at the end of the 14.30 CET rise. And now SHORT on the CL. I started the day with 2700 and now I have 3900. I believe the CL is heavily overbought and declining. So I went SHORT on it and I hope I will get back the 3000 it owes me by the end of the day. I am expecting it to lose 3 points by the end of the day. That's exactly the 3000 it owes me. SHORT on it with no stoploss: I don't want any surprises, like losing another 2000 on a false breakout.

If I can get back to my usual capital of 6k, then we can start talking about trading more carefully with patiently studied trades. I think that's what my discretionary trading is missing. Patience and care in choosing each trade. I should only make one or two trades per day, chosen very carefully, or none at all.
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Old Jan 8, 2010, 3:39pm   #2123
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Re: my journal

I know i'll get shot down for saying it...but oh well !

The stakes being used on this trading account are way too high.
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Spreading the madness across this suite of forums.

Those are my principles and if you don't like them, well..... I have others.

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Old Jan 8, 2010, 3:43pm   #2124
 
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Re: my journal

Yamato started this thread Yes, of course, I can't diversify at all, and that's one of the problems. But I have no choice. These are the futures I can trade. As I said in previous posts, for various reasons I don't find it convenient to open an account with spreadbetting companies, which would allow me to diversify as I need.

But the main problem is in my behaviour. When I had 30k, I used it to double up, triple up... and more on losing positions. That's partly how I brought 30k to 3k (also, I've repaid a loan of 10k). Once I had 10 CL contracts open at once, because I was trying to pick a bottom which wouldn't happen and I did the usual martingale betting. Anyway, that gambling madness is part of the past. It's all witnessed in many posts written over a month ago.
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Old Jan 8, 2010, 3:54pm   #2125
 
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Re: my journal

Yamato started this thread All this money I made today I owe it to the taxi driver whom I dreamed. I was on a cab, watching outside the window for a long time, and then we arrived at a sea port, and the cab driver turned to me. And I said "you know we're in a dream, right? You still want me to pay you?". He was polite but he said "well, actually yes...". So I made myself wake up, because I had no money. Then I woke up at 14.50 CET and I saw this awesome situation: the ZN up 500 dollars, and I closed it. The GBP overbought, and I sold it. And the CL in the middle of its range, but on a day that will see a big fall in my opinion, and went short on it. Of course, if I had slept and dreamed more in the past, I wouldn't have lost all the money I've lost. When I was at 10k for example, the systems could have handled it. At least I'd still be at 10k.
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Old Jan 8, 2010, 3:58pm   #2126
 
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Re: my journal

Some time ago I met a famous trader and analyst at a seminar.

Among other things he pointed about being nice to yourself and spending some profit on whatever you fancy, otherwise market will take it back.

Before that I was under the impression that market hardly ever takes money from him and I found that funny, so I laughed at that comment.
On that reaction of mine he said that it's not meant to be funny and that he is quite serious about it.
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Old Jan 8, 2010, 4:08pm   #2127
 
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Re: my journal

Yamato started this thread Well, my little experience is that when I spent some of the gains from trading, this didn't prevent me from losing the rest. I was thinking the same thing as the analyst and so that's what I did.

If i had to analyze my past behaviour and try to see what I did in a period where I made the most money it would be november 2008. I tripled my account in one month, bringing it from 8k to 26k. It was a mix of systems and gambling, with the usual martingale methods: if you have a lot of money, it's hard to lose, but if you lose, you almost blow out your account.

Another good period was march to july 2008. I did nothing, just ran the systems. I guess my best periods were always when I just ran the systems and had over 10k.

With 5k you're either lucky or get nowhere.

The fact is i still do not have a profitable system outside my automated ones. Even today i was kind of gambling: not compulsively, but still gambling, because i did not use a stoploss. Reason: false breakouts. Maybe not good enough a reason.

Last edited by Yamato; Jan 8, 2010 at 4:15pm.
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Old Jan 8, 2010, 4:19pm   #2128
 
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Re: my journal

Yamato started this thread very good:
http://www.letmewatchthis.com/watch-...-of-Conscience
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Old Jan 8, 2010, 7:05pm   #2129
 
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Re: my journal

Yamato started this thread Unfortunately the CL trade is not going well at all. It fell but then it went back up. I didn't care at all about support and resistance and kept it, because I assumed it would break through it, after rising for over 2 weeks, and having two red days.

One hour from margin call and I am down 600 dollars.
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Old Jan 8, 2010, 7:18pm   #2130
 
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Re: my journal

Yamato started this thread Losing 1000 dollars now. Now I see the point of the stoploss.
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