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Old Nov 23, 2009, 5:28am   #750
 
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travis started this thread Nightmare, problems digesting all I ate, french toasts again... woke up thinking about death and other sad thoughts... it doesn't happen often but now I am screwed because I'll have to go to work in a few hours and I don't know if I'll be able to go back to sleep. Getting up is nothing compared to staying in bed awake and thinking about death. And this is connected to trading: if I have to die, at least I want to live my way and not have to go to work as well, on top of dying. So it's connected to pivots as well, because hopefully they will be that extra ingredient I was missing for profitability with my discretionary trading. My trading systems are good but they have a huge drawdown compared to what i can do with discretionary trading when I am at my best. I'm going to have to work hard with discretionary before I can get to 30k and let my systems take care of everything.
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Old Nov 23, 2009, 6:24am   #751
 
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travis started this thread All right, since I was up, I took advantage of the situation, and started a trade short on the EUR. I believe it's very overbought and I started it regardless of pivots. Besides it's higher than any pivot level, but those don't count much because it's still sunday in Chicago.

I first used TRAIL MIT mother ****er that went off and made me lose a few dollars. Then I had to reopen my short trade and now it's making money, lots of it. I said to myself "screw the trailing mit" and screw the trailing as well. That friend of mine told me he didn't like trailing stops and he was right. I am wright instead, like the wright brothers, who didn't know how to build airplanes. They built crappy ones that crashed all the time.

Anyway, for once in my life I built a good airplane because it's not taking off, but since I am short, it can crash all it wants.

Anyway, I am using a stoploss, placed at 1.4962.

Should I adjust it? That friend found time to tell me about pivots, which was good and tell me about another dozen things but didn't tell me about how to exit.

We didn't even find time to discuss if it's a good strategy to adjust stops manually, and let them follow the trade. As usual, I'll do things my way.

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Old Nov 23, 2009, 7:06am   #752
 
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travis started this thread CALLING IN SICKAll right... screw them all. I can't go. I've only slept 5 and a half hours. I feel like ****. Today I am calling in sick. In the meanwhile my position has gone down to 1.4919 and back up to over 1.4940, that means that a 20 ticks trailing stop wouldn't have worked and would have gotten me out of a good position with a profit of zero. Good thing I understood that early on. Now it came back down and it's showing a good profit again.

NOW IT'LL BE LIKE BUYING A LOTTERY TICKET
It's like buying a lottery ticket, only much better. My stoploss is about 200 dollars. If that goes off, I lost. If I made a good call, I'll make 2000 dollars. I can afford to buy 10 such lottery tickets. The problem with me was that until now it was the reverse: my lottery ticket was potentially costing me 2000 and I was always taking a profit of 200 out of every winning trade.

WITH PIVOTS I KNOW HOW FAR IT WILL GO
What's changed? Pivots. I used to be in the dark about how long the trend I had spotted from the start would continue: now I have one more tool to know that it will continue for a while. I'll be looking for trades that last a whole day almost, and the price I'll risk to pay will always be about 30 ticks. It's going to take a lot of work to identify these opportunities with a sufficient level of accuracy, but I will only need 5 of these to gather enough capital to let my systems trade properly, and then I'll finally be able to rest.

Now, with pivots, I know how far it's going to go. Most likely.

snap1.jpg

Look above. I thought that today I wasn't using any pivots, but if we count for sunday night the pivot levels of friday, then it's bouncing right against R1. And I am going to exit at S2, at about 1.48, with a profit of almost 2000. Yeah, maybe I am just dreaming as usual.

WHERE THE HELL DO I GET OUT?
Yeah, maybe I'll get out before that, but if it ever gets to that, I'll get out for sure, with a take profit. But that's a long way from now. I still have to let it run for 10 hours, about. Yes, because time matters. I am talking as if I were teaching, but I don't know much about this. For one thing I don't know how to exit. I am still very unsure between:
1) trailing and
2) take profit, or a
3) manual stoploss that I lower at each time.

I FIND IT HARD TO ACCEPT THAT I CAN'T CONTROL THE MARKET
The point is the market is less predictable that I, control freak, am willing to admit and accept. Maybe that's what kept me from being profitable for so long. I tried to control the market... somehow I irrationally (the control freak is irrational) expected to be able to control the market.

HOURLY CHARTS ARE BEST
Now it's making 100 dollars about. What's keeping me from exiting now? I am expecting to make more. What's keeping me from lowering my stop to break even? It could go back up. Am I being rational and reasonable? I think so. With this kind of trading, it's best to look at candlesticks with an hourly timeframe.

Last edited by travis; Nov 23, 2009 at 7:35am.
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Old Nov 23, 2009, 8:23am   #753
 
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travis started this thread believe it or not... i raised my stoploss right before it was reached.
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Old Nov 23, 2009, 8:27am   #754
 
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travis started this thread believe it or not... i went short yet another contract... all the worse things i could do... now it's win or bust. as usual...
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Old Nov 23, 2009, 8:47am   #755
 
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travis started this thread PIVOTS + TIME

Ok, got it. Figured out. It's pivots + time. Time has to be right. The time for reversals is 9 AM CET, and 9 PM CET. Hour more hour less. If the pivot is reached by that time, you can safely enter a position in the opposite direction and buy your 500 dollars lottery ticket (40 ticks stoploss). Today I've done it earlier.
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Old Nov 23, 2009, 8:56am   #756
 
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travis started this thread ...COMING UP WITH A FORMULA
Which means what? Which means that I'll be staying short (I've got my answer on how to exit!) until 9 PM tonight, and exit sooner should I see that it has reached a round number (1.48), a pivot level (S2), or that it's starting to reverse. I'll be making about 4000 today. That's a lot of money. That means I'll be able to trade many more of systems by the end of the week. Plus I've got yet another system to add, but this one I will first discretionary trade for a while. Then I'll automate it.

Oh, and i forgot: it has to be overstretched. At least +100 or -100 ticks. Otherwise stay away from it.

Summary:
time (9 am or 9 pm) + pivots (S2 or R2) + overstretched (-100 or -100) + reversal pattern (increasingly shorter legs)

What did I do wrong today?
1) time
I didn't wait (typical of me).

2) pivots
Ok: we were beyond them

3) overstretched
I didn't wait till it was enough (typical of me)

4) reversal pattern
I didn't wait to see one and anticipated (typical of me)

Basically the usual old stuff due to my impatience and craving for action, maybe to forget that nightmare I had.

But what about now? Would I enter now (yes) and would it be reasonable according to these above-mentioned rules?

1) time: yes

2) pivots: yes

3) overstretched: yes

4) reversal pattern: not yet

I will have to add yet another factor. Best if there's a bias compared to the EUR's twin, the GBP. If the GBP has risen much less, that's an extra factor in favor of a short (viceversa for LONG).

So, recapitulating, these are going to be my principles (not requirements because they don't have to all be met at once), in order of importance:

FINAL SUMMARY OF OVERSTRETCHED DISCRETIONARY SYSTEM
1) overstretched (-100 or -100)
2) time (9 am or 9 pm)
3) pivots (S2 or R2)
4) reversal pattern (increasingly shorter legs)
5) EUR/GBP difference in favor of trade

Last edited by travis; Nov 23, 2009 at 9:23am.
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