trader_dante
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Ok, here is the idea.
6 Markets.
1. Dax
2. Bund
3. Crude Oil
4. Corn
5. Euro/Gbp
6. Usd/Jpy
A throw of one dice will decide the market.
Another roll will determine:
Even number (2, 4 or 6) - Long position
Odd number (1, 3 or 5) - Short position
Therefore a market and a position in that market will be dictated completely randomly.
There will be no market, fundamental or techncial influence or consideration of any kind.
The dice will then be thrown a third time.
1. Enter as soon as the dice stops rolling
2. Enter on the markets next open
3. Enter at precisely noon.
4. Enter at 4pm
5. Enter using my best judgement
6. Enter on the markets next close
And so that is it.
One will note that, in the above, I have absolutely NO CONTROL over:
- The market chosen.
- The direction I am placed in.
I will have a 1/6 chance of CONTROLLING my time of entry.
The only element I have proper control over will be where I will exit.
Rules:
1. Obey the dice in everything
2. As soon as possible after a position is closed, the dice must be re-thrown.
3. The experiment will continue for a period of three months.
I initially aimed to try and prove that a random entry system can be profitable and that what is vital is the trade management (stop placement and exit strategy). And in doing so I wanted to venture a little further into the realms of randomness then the experiments I have seen before e.g. Pick a market (one that you trade all the time). Toss a coin. Long or short. Fixed stop. Fixed target. That kind of thing.
But most people that I have run this by (on this board and elsewhere) don't dispute that it would be profitable and expect the experiment to be a success if a fixed risk is taken on every trade.
That is partly because since there is only long or short to take and the market must go one way they expect a 50/50 outcome. The natural expectation follows that if your targets are slightly wider than your stops, one would expect a positive outcome.
At any rate, I don't want to get too hung up on this.
What I really want to do with this thread is test the boundaries of randomness and have some fun along the way.
I will be trading with real money and I will throw the dice tomorrow at 7am which will be Wednesday 3rd June.
I will start a new journal entry. I will call the trades as I take them on there. This thread will be for discussion purposes.
As I've said, this will be for fun (although you may take from it what you will).
-Tom
6 Markets.
1. Dax
2. Bund
3. Crude Oil
4. Corn
5. Euro/Gbp
6. Usd/Jpy
A throw of one dice will decide the market.
Another roll will determine:
Even number (2, 4 or 6) - Long position
Odd number (1, 3 or 5) - Short position
Therefore a market and a position in that market will be dictated completely randomly.
There will be no market, fundamental or techncial influence or consideration of any kind.
The dice will then be thrown a third time.
1. Enter as soon as the dice stops rolling
2. Enter on the markets next open
3. Enter at precisely noon.
4. Enter at 4pm
5. Enter using my best judgement
6. Enter on the markets next close
And so that is it.
One will note that, in the above, I have absolutely NO CONTROL over:
- The market chosen.
- The direction I am placed in.
I will have a 1/6 chance of CONTROLLING my time of entry.
The only element I have proper control over will be where I will exit.
Rules:
1. Obey the dice in everything
2. As soon as possible after a position is closed, the dice must be re-thrown.
3. The experiment will continue for a period of three months.
I initially aimed to try and prove that a random entry system can be profitable and that what is vital is the trade management (stop placement and exit strategy). And in doing so I wanted to venture a little further into the realms of randomness then the experiments I have seen before e.g. Pick a market (one that you trade all the time). Toss a coin. Long or short. Fixed stop. Fixed target. That kind of thing.
But most people that I have run this by (on this board and elsewhere) don't dispute that it would be profitable and expect the experiment to be a success if a fixed risk is taken on every trade.
That is partly because since there is only long or short to take and the market must go one way they expect a 50/50 outcome. The natural expectation follows that if your targets are slightly wider than your stops, one would expect a positive outcome.
At any rate, I don't want to get too hung up on this.
What I really want to do with this thread is test the boundaries of randomness and have some fun along the way.
I will be trading with real money and I will throw the dice tomorrow at 7am which will be Wednesday 3rd June.
I will start a new journal entry. I will call the trades as I take them on there. This thread will be for discussion purposes.
As I've said, this will be for fun (although you may take from it what you will).
-Tom
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