Joey's MP Journal

This is a discussion on Joey's MP Journal within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; Hey Joey Your post on EURJPY here really helped me http://www.trade2win.com/boards/704140-post4718.html They won't let me rep you but I wanted ...

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Old Mar 25, 2009, 12:58am   #231
 
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Thanks Joey

Hey Joey
Your post on EURJPY here really helped me
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/704140-post4718.html
They won't let me rep you but I wanted to say thanks!
Nicola
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Old Mar 25, 2009, 10:31pm   #232
Joined Mar 2005
ES June Setup for Thursday

Joey25 started this thread Nice looking Balance Area to fade for Thursday, with the mean also a good pivot level.

Upper Edge: 818.00
Mean: 812.00
Lower Edge: 808.75

I'm starting to "hope" a lot at the moment, which probably isn't a good sign...
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essetup.jpg  
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Old Mar 26, 2009, 8:09pm   #233
Joined Mar 2005
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Joey25 View Post
Nice looking Balance Area to fade for Thursday, with the mean also a good pivot level.

Upper Edge: 818.00
Mean: 812.00
Lower Edge: 808.75

I'm starting to "hope" a lot at the moment, which probably isn't a good sign...
I'm afraid a 15.40 points loss on this one.

The good run with the method occurred when the general market trend was down - an effective pullback-continuation method.

I built this particular method during the sustained bear market, which has been pretty fruitful, but I can't continue only trading the short side with it.

Plus, it doesn't work as effectively when entries are just from the mean - the edges play an important role aswell.

Overall, not too disastrous due to some good FTSE positions, but still a work in progress.

Edit: Just a couple of notes to myself re: S&P trading so that I don't forget:

1) Value must be migrating and not coming into balance

2) Only trade in the direction of the trend, where trend is defined by the change in Value

Last edited by Joey25; Mar 26, 2009 at 8:15pm.
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Old Mar 26, 2009, 9:46pm   #234
Joined Mar 2005
Defining Trend Using Market Profile

Joey25 started this thread The next chart is a bit "busy", but is the best I can come up with to try and capture the current condition of the market.

Basically, the minimum for an uptrend is a rising mean and vice-versa for a downtrend.

However, a market in consolidation will contain a minor trend or a slightly rising or falling mean. Unfortunately that is where the discretion comes in!

There's about 45 minutes to go in the current day, but I doubt that Thursday's Balance Area will change much. The market today, although overlapping in terms of Value with Wednesday, has made enough of a shift, in my opinion, to warrant being called an Uptrend.

Indeed, it looks like the market will open the next session above value - a good guide for continuation.
Attached Thumbnails
trend.jpg  

Last edited by Joey25; Mar 26, 2009 at 10:28pm. Reason: Added the final chart.
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Old Mar 27, 2009, 11:19pm   #235
Joined Mar 2005
Joey25 started this thread The balancing process which began Thursday was completed today with a close near Thursday's mean and overlapping Value. Correspondingly, today was an Inside Bar on the Daily.

For the method I'm using for the S&P, I now stay out until the market gives clues to where it is next headed.
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esdaily.jpg   balance.jpg  
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Old Mar 28, 2009, 2:59pm   #236
Joined Mar 2005
Balance Breakout Strategy

Joey25 started this thread I've been trying to work out how the product that I've barely got any experience at all in (spot FX) is subsidising failed trades in something I've nearly been doing for a year (the S&P). I think it's to do with initiating trades with short term momentum in FX, whilst being guilty of top & bottom picking in S&P.

I think I've fallen into the trap of using Value Areas, Means etc. as levels to fade, rather than using them across days to indicate Market Condition. By accident more than design the post late last night made me realise this!

As stated earlier, in this situation I think it's best to let the market show it's hand. It's possible that the market may continue to balance, extending the range one way or the other, but the biggest reward lies in a continuaton breakout to the upside or a retracement breakout to the downside.

The Strategy

Dependent on the market opening within the range late Sunday evening:

Trade 1

Entry Buy Stop @ 831.20
Protective Stop @ 823.20

2/3 of position Limit target @ 843.20
1/3 of position run 'til close

Trade 2 (One Cancels Other)

Entry Sell Stop @ 806.80
Protective Buy Stop @ 814.80

2/3 of position Limit target 794.80
1/3 of position run 'til close

The chart is the same as yesterday's but highlighting the Bracket limits.
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breakoutprep.jpg  

Last edited by Joey25; Mar 28, 2009 at 3:15pm.
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Old Mar 29, 2009, 8:17pm   #237
Joined Mar 2005
Joey25 started this thread Just one more change to the previous post - the final 1/3 of the position is now being run as far as possible and isn't limited until the close of the day of entry.

The main reason for this final nail in the coffin for daytrading for me is twofold:

(a) I'm psychologically comfortable with holding positions overnight - I've been doing this with my FTSE futures / options strategy since 2001, so I know I'm not kidding myself with this.

(b) That final 1/3 of the position could well be where the bulk of the "surprise" profits lie - I haven't looked at this in great detail, but it would seem to follow that if you're fortunate enough to get in at the beginning of a move, then why would that move be constrained by the end of the day of entry?

I'm looking forward to seeing how it goes
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Old Mar 30, 2009, 8:52am   #238
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Joey25 View Post

I'm looking forward to seeing how it goes
As am I.
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Old Mar 31, 2009, 1:33pm   #239
Joined Mar 2005
Joey25 started this thread ES June 09

Yesterday, I got filled on the downside breakout of the 2-day Balance Area.

The first 2/3 of the position was covered for a 12 point profit:

(30th March) Sold 2 units @ 806.80
(30th March) Bought 2 units @ 794.80

P/L = 2 x 12.00 = 24.00 points.

I'm still running with the remaining 1/3.

Yesterday's profile saw non-overlapping Value (trend) vis-a-vis the preceding 2-day Balance Area, and in the overnight session today, price is drifting towards Monday's Mean ahead of the economic data out at 3pm BST.

The first alert to closing the remainder of the position comes when Value starts to overlap, and the market comes into balance again.
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balancebreakout.jpg   ticket.jpg  

Last edited by Joey25; Mar 31, 2009 at 2:04pm. Reason: Put a clearer chart in
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Old Mar 31, 2009, 9:59pm   #240
Joined Mar 2005
Joey25 started this thread ES June 09 continued

Today's action has seen a Balance Area contained completely within Monday's, suggesting consolidation, even though at first glance it felt like a strong rally.

Of great interest to me was the failed auction above the "outside" Balance Area. In theory, if price gets outside of Value and is swiftly rejected, then market participants will panic and flock to test the other side. In Mind Over Markets, they reckon the probability of this happening is about 80%, but others reckon it's more like 60%.

The chart shows the two Balance Areas (today's Upper Edge is also confluent with Monday's Mean).

I'll be moving my stop to 810.10 at the end of today - at a safe distance from the range, and I'll see what happens next.
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