Joey's MP Journal

This is a discussion on Joey's MP Journal within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; I've decided to concentrate solely on this pair and perhaps gradually build a longer-term position in the direction of the ...

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Old Apr 7, 2009, 9:02am   #256
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USDJPY setup

Joey25 started this thread I've decided to concentrate solely on this pair and perhaps gradually build a longer-term position in the direction of the general trend.

Potentially a nice inside bar continuation trade, with the added bonus that if the top of the inside bar is tested then there will already have been a fakeout to the downside (increasing the probability of success).
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Old Apr 7, 2009, 6:21pm   #257
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Joey25 View Post
I've decided to concentrate solely on this pair and perhaps gradually build a longer-term position in the direction of the general trend.

Potentially a nice inside bar continuation trade, with the added bonus that if the top of the inside bar is tested then there will already have been a fakeout to the downside (increasing the probability of success).

USDJPY

I attempted to use the H4 pin as a springboard for a breakout from the 100.81 level, but I was stopped out very quickly:

Bought @ 100.85
Sold @ 100.34

P/L = -51 pips
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Old Apr 7, 2009, 9:20pm   #258
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ES Update

Joey25 started this thread "As you were" with this one, although the Auction Chart of value is suggesting that a significant downward movement has occurred today.

Stubborn support at 811.00, though.
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Old Apr 8, 2009, 2:18am   #259
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Joey25 View Post
although the Auction Chart of value is suggesting that a significant downward movement has occurred today.
agreed. let's hope this brief Rally is finally over and we can put a stop to ridiculous comments about having found the bottom, turned the corner etc etc.
some of the comments on forums as well as from "professional" commentators on CNBC/Bloomberg etc have been hilarious in their mis-placed optimism .....
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Old Apr 8, 2009, 6:52am   #260
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ES Initial Target Hit

Joey25 started this thread The initial target has been hit in the overnight session:

Sold @ 818.0
Bought @ 807.5

P/L = 2 units x 10.5 = +21.0 points.

With regard to USDJPY, I must remember to only trade in the direction of the daily candle. There's no need to make trading more difficult than it already is.
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Old Apr 8, 2009, 6:16pm   #261
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USDJPY (Rolling Spread)

Joey25 started this thread I've been stopped out on the remaining 1/3 of the S&P trade for a loss of 7.00 points.
I now review whether the market is back in balance at the close of business.

Meanwhile,

USDJPY

Sold @ 100.10
Stop @ 100.40
2/3 Target @ 99.65
1/3 Runner

Have just been filled on the initial target for 2 units x 45 = +90 pips profit.

Whereas with ES I'm finding that using a 240 minute chart provides clarity in a volatile market, I feel that the same timeframe removes too much detail and makes the stops uncomfortably large for USDJPY.

Therefore the attached chart is an hourly, with the trend defined by the channel.
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Old Apr 8, 2009, 7:22pm   #262
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yen rallied , now G/J on a support line again ( hourly )
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Old Apr 9, 2009, 3:18pm   #263
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Pyramiding / Reversing

Joey25 started this thread I've been paying particular attention this morning to pyramiding into a longer term position using the 1/3 runner portions of a setup. Also, these positions can potentially be used to soften the impact of fakeouts, or alternatively be used to stop and reverse.

It's a real headache to develop this in journal format, and tends to interrupt the flow, so from now on I'll only concentrate here on the first leg of the strategy (the 2/3 portion).

Today's ES Balance Area Breakout

Bought @ 834.50
Stop @ 827.30
2/3 Tgt @ 845.30
1/3 runner

Just filled on first 2/3 for 2 units x 10.8 = +21.6 points.
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Old Apr 9, 2009, 5:33pm   #264
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Usdjpy 09/04/09

Joey25 started this thread I feel like I'm starting to get some benefit from concentrating just on this pair, gradually getting used to the levels etc.

Bought @ 100.22
Stop @ 100.01
2/3 Tgt @ 100.54
1/3 runner

Initial target hit for 2 units x 32 = +64 pips
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Old Apr 14, 2009, 2:13pm   #265
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Usdjpy 14/04/09

Joey25 started this thread Quite typical of price action around news releases this one, with an identical pattern happening in the S&P on NFP day.

Firstly a false break above the channel, then a return back within range, and finally a genuine break.

Sold @ 99.71
Stop @ 99.92
2/3 Tgt @ 99.39
1/3 runner

Initial Target hit for 2 units x 32 = +64 pips.
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Last edited by Joey25; Apr 14, 2009 at 2:19pm.
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Old Apr 14, 2009, 9:35pm   #266
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ES Balance

Joey25 started this thread Could go either way with this one, with the market coming into balance over Monday and Tuesday, whilst collectively developing Value above Thursday's area.

(I think I've finally lost it - the Auction Chart keeps reminding me of The Simpsons)
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Old Apr 14, 2009, 10:34pm   #267
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Im hoping to see 810 on the ES this week.
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Old Apr 14, 2009, 11:01pm   #268
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Quote:
Originally Posted by candles View Post
Im hoping to see 810 on the ES this week.
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Old Apr 15, 2009, 9:55am   #269
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ES 15th April

Joey25 started this thread Got filled on the short side, but stopped out for a full loss:

Sold @ 835.50
Stop @ 841.90
2/3 Tgt @ 825.90
1/3 Runner

Bought @ 841.90 for -6.4 x 3 units = -19.2 points.
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Old Apr 15, 2009, 9:22pm   #270
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ES Analysis

Joey25 started this thread Not ready to trade this again as I feel it's very imbalanced (the awkward low volume days like Monday don't help).

Anyway, the chart is quite interesting because yesterday's Mean appears to be acting as a "line in the sand".

A note on tactics

I've decided that the 1/3 runners are used best as a pyramiding tactic, with a natural time stop of expiry for futures. This will mean identifying the current trend (probably from the Weekly chart) and entering breakouts from balance in accordance with this trend.

Constantly reversing, in effect not having a view on intermediate term trend, has, in my opinion, got me out of these position trades too early.

Also, by picking 2 extremely volatile instruments in ES and USDJPY, I should be able to capture the odd "home run" trend...
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