College Fund Challenge

This is a discussion on College Fund Challenge within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; It strikes me that losing 60pc is like 2 months' profit. If it were a lower risk eg 40pc I ...

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Old Sep 21, 2011, 2:09pm   #323
Joined Oct 2010
Re: College Fund Challenge

It strikes me that losing 60pc is like 2 months' profit. If it were a lower risk eg 40pc I have a strong conviction it would be an easier recovery and smoother equity curve. Accepting of course that 0.0 % risk is the smoothest equity curve but contains no opportunities for better.
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Old Sep 21, 2011, 2:19pm   #324
Joined Sep 2010
Re: College Fund Challenge

Stop loss hit
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Old Sep 21, 2011, 2:50pm   #325
 
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Re: College Fund Challenge

Quote:
Originally Posted by Masquerade View Post
Man...you were bragging about making 1/2 pips a day trading with some insane leverage. The writing was on the wall. Nice run but something does need to change.
The market.

P.S. where's the vendor tag? Not as if it wasn't obvious from the start, but I'll do my pboyles impression: http://s180group.webs.com/
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Old Sep 21, 2011, 4:07pm   #326
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Re: College Fund Challenge

tkbieber started this thread Well, the trade from the 13th finally got stopped out. -48.8% for the month so far. One more full trading week left so I could get about 5 or 10% back.

Well, it should take about 2 months to get it back.

Yes, for those risking about 10%, I would increase the leverage now and could get it back in a week or two. I won't be increasing the risk because I am already risking 60% so I'll just ride it out for 3 months.

14-month winning streak wasn't too bad. Let's see if I can do it again.
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Old Sep 21, 2011, 4:12pm   #327
Joined Sep 2010
Re: College Fund Challenge

tkbieber started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by wiseambitions View Post
It strikes me that losing 60pc is like 2 months' profit. If it were a lower risk eg 40pc I have a strong conviction it would be an easier recovery and smoother equity curve. Accepting of course that 0.0 % risk is the smoothest equity curve but contains no opportunities for better.
Average has been about +50% a month so over the next few months, it may be back on tack and back in profit. -60% isn't bad if the system is inaccurate about once every 12 months.
Again, what I would do if I was leveraged just 10% per trade is increase the risk right after a bad trade and should get it back rather quickly. This will will take a little longer.
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Old Sep 21, 2011, 9:39pm   #328
Joined Oct 2010
Re: College Fund Challenge

Quote:
Originally Posted by tkbieber View Post
Average has been about +50% a month so over the next few months, it may be back on tack and back in profit. -60% isn't bad if the system is inaccurate about once every 12 months.
Again, what I would do if I was leveraged just 10% per trade is increase the risk right after a bad trade and should get it back rather quickly. This will will take a little longer.

Ok, you do talk a lot of sense, I'll give you that.

For a long time I said when FMT was performing properly that a good idea would be to analyse for a given setting over a significant period of let's say 6 months, how much the capital would have grown at incremental % risks per trade. Then to determine the % risk at which any 1 per cent more would result in the capital growing less well. Once that has been determined one could then make the decision to trade such a set at below the optimium % risk. Alas the market conditions changed, and FMT was getting less than 60pc win rate, and it was difficult for 6 months to roll up capital at all.
Nevertheless with your settings, and the likelihood of getting knocked out say three times a year, (is that a fair estimate, at your SL?), then it is possible the optimum risk is anywhere between 40 and 70pc, but the exposure to go with depends on the individual's tolerance to loss, and whether or not they would want to baby sit trades or be happy to let them take their course.

Glad you have not lost your nerve

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Old Sep 21, 2011, 10:08pm   #329
 
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Re: College Fund Challenge

Quote:
Originally Posted by tkbieber View Post
Again, what I would do if I was leveraged just 10% per trade is increase the risk right after a bad trade and should get it back rather quickly. This will will take a little longer.
You mean like martingale?
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