College Fund Challenge

This is a discussion on College Fund Challenge within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; Originally Posted by Hotch Bieber, for teh lulz where does your edge come from? Just setting the rules and following ...

View Poll Results: How close to my goal of $2,000,000 do you think I will get?
You think I will blow the account and my $100 will be lost. 79 58.52%
You think I will somewhat earn a profit $200-$1,500. 17 12.59%
You think I will get a pretty good return but not close to $2,000,000. 27 20.00%
You think I will get way more then $2,000,000. 12 8.89%
Voters: 135. You may not vote on this poll

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Old Apr 5, 2012, 6:18pm   #646
Joined Sep 2010
Re: College Fund Challenge

tkbieber started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hotch View Post
Bieber, for teh lulz where does your edge come from?
Just setting the rules and following them. No deviation.
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Old Apr 6, 2012, 11:22pm   #647
 
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Re: College Fund Challenge

Quote:
Originally Posted by tkbieber View Post
Just setting the rules and following them. No deviation.
That's not your edge though is it. Follow rules of a negative expectancy system wouldn't be an edge.

What about the rules gives you an edge?
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Old Apr 7, 2012, 1:37am   #648
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Re: College Fund Challenge

tkbieber started this thread
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Originally Posted by Hotch View Post
That's not your edge though is it. Follow rules of a negative expectancy system wouldn't be an edge.

What about the rules gives you an edge?
All systems have negative expectancy. That's why 95% of traders don't make any money and the 5% that do figured out how to handle negative trades.

A system can work great but most people can't follow a system's rules, thus they get in trouble.

Cheers mate, it's a holiday.
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Old Apr 10, 2012, 12:22pm   #649
 
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Re: College Fund Challenge

Quote:
Originally Posted by tkbieber View Post
All systems have negative expectancy. That's why 95% of traders don't make any money and the 5% that do figured out how to handle negative trades.

A system can work great but most people can't follow a system's rules, thus they get in trouble.

Cheers mate, it's a holiday.
So you're saying your system has negative expectancy.
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Old Apr 10, 2012, 1:18pm   #650
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Re: College Fund Challenge

tkbieber started this thread Ok, all trades are closed and back on track with the recovery from the loss last week. It's at it's all-time high of +113%

I'm shutting it down for two weeks because I am going on vacation and can't be around to monitor it. I should be able to begin again on the 25th.

Click the image to open in full size.
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Old Apr 11, 2012, 7:29am   #651
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Re: College Fund Challenge

Quote:
Originally Posted by tkbieber View Post
Thanks. I agree that 40% (drawdown) is big.
The flaw I have with this system is if there is ever 3 bad trades in a row, that just devastates the account. In the last year and a half, I have not seen that but it's just a matter of time I'd say.
Hi tkbieber,

This method has copped a bit of a beating in the last couple of months but as long as it is recognised to be a high risk-high reward, wild ride it is still interesting to me.

Two questions:
1. Are you doubling up your trade size each time you have a losing trade?
2. Have you done an analysis of what your biggest INDIVIDUAL drawdown in pips and percentage of equity would have been IF you had NOT used a stop loss on any of your trades?

As I have said previously, I think you are on the right track. Good luck. This EA is morphing into something that is getting very interesting.

PS I am a professional trader.
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Old Apr 11, 2012, 1:05pm   #652
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Re: College Fund Challenge

tkbieber started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by marbig View Post
Hi tkbieber,

This method has copped a bit of a beating in the last couple of months but as long as it is recognised to be a high risk-high reward, wild ride it is still interesting to me.

Two questions:
1. Are you doubling up your trade size each time you have a losing trade?
2. Have you done an analysis of what your biggest INDIVIDUAL drawdown in pips and percentage of equity would have been IF you had NOT used a stop loss on any of your trades?

As I have said previously, I think you are on the right track. Good luck. This EA is morphing into something that is getting very interesting.

PS I am a professional trader.
Hello,
1: Yes, I use to take the loss in $ amount and divide by 2 trades or 80 pips. Now, I just take the loss in $ and divide by 40 pips to get in back in one trade.
2: No, but a SL is necessary as I've seen about once or twice a year where the market seems to have an endless trend and can go for 500-900 pips before any kind of entrancement happens. That just crazy risk if I had no sl. Also, I determine the % of risk I want to trade by using a SL. I start out trading at 5% risk.

To the best I can, I have tested this trading style back to July, 2010 and this Dec/Jan has been the toughest stretch yet. It all ended well.

Yes, it's monopoly money and I didn't risk more than I can afford to lose. So if I get the account to $500,000 before it tanks, I've just lost $500 of my own money.

We will see how it goes.
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Old Apr 16, 2012, 9:12pm   #653
 
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Re: College Fund Challenge

This is a lesson in how not to trade folks.
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Old Apr 17, 2012, 1:47am   #654
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Re: College Fund Challenge

tkbieber started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by tony1979 View Post
This is a lesson in how not to trade folks.
Whether you trade this way or not,, it works thus far. Anyway, it's only until it gets to $2,000,000 than I'm cutting it off.
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Old Apr 17, 2012, 9:33am   #655
 
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Re: College Fund Challenge

Well you've lost $1723.3 in your ponzi scheme, of course, that's not your money I guess, so you can ignore that.

You've lost $1809.3 trading the original system.

Now you've changed it marginally, shakily made $652.3 and claim it's working.

You also bought (or obtained) tom's EA which leads me to believe (even more so) that there' no malice in your actions, but should point out how silly you're being.
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Old Apr 17, 2012, 9:41am   #656
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Re: College Fund Challenge

Quote:
Originally Posted by tkbieber View Post
Whether you trade this way or not,, it works thus far. Anyway, it's only until it gets to $2,000,000 than I'm cutting it off.
Click the image to open in full size.

Peter
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Old Apr 17, 2012, 10:50am   #657
 
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Re: College Fund Challenge

Quote:
Originally Posted by tkbieber View Post
Whether you trade this way or not,, it works thus far. Anyway, it's only until it gets to $2,000,000 than I'm cutting it off.
You know at 3 losers in a row will wipe you out. So your strategy is to hope that doesnít happen. There are no safeguards in place to stop it happening.

This is not a strategy, you are gambling. Your $2m relies on the fact that you will be lucky from now until you get the money. You have no idea on what the return is, how long it will take, how likely 3 losers in a row actually are in a year let alone up to the $2m.

This is basic information you need to research. Letís say your system would have blown up once in the last 10 years (but you donít know that because you havenít done enough backtesting!) therefore weíll say you have a 10% chance of wipeout in a year Ė if you trade it for 5 years then the chances of losing all your money is 40% before the time is up. Trade it for 10 years Ė itís 65%. Would you trade a system for 10 years that you know only has a 35% chance of success?

But you donít know. You donít know how long £2m is going to take. You donít know how likely you are to get there. What if you get to $1.5m in 3 years and you get the 3 losers Ė how sick will you feel then?

This is why people fail at trading. Their strategies are based on assumptions and hope, they ignore the risks and deluisionally believe they will be lucky.

You will only ever succeed when youíve studied your strategy, understand the risks & rewards and have plans in place for worst case scenarios.
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Old Apr 17, 2012, 5:08pm   #658
 
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Re: College Fund Challenge

Quote:
Originally Posted by marbig View Post
Hi tkbieber,

This method has copped a bit of a beating in the last couple of months but as long as it is recognised to be a high risk-high reward, wild ride it is still interesting to me.

Two questions:
1. Are you doubling up your trade size each time you have a losing trade?
2. Have you done an analysis of what your biggest INDIVIDUAL drawdown in pips and percentage of equity would have been IF you had NOT used a stop loss on any of your trades?

As I have said previously, I think you are on the right track. Good luck. This EA is morphing into something that is getting very interesting.

PS I am a professional trader.
It's a pile of cr@p - how can you think he's on to something if you're allegedly a "professional trader". I think someone must be telling porkies!
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Old Apr 18, 2012, 1:09am   #659
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Re: College Fund Challenge

tkbieber started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoggums View Post
You know at 3 losers in a row will wipe you out. So your strategy is to hope that doesnít happen. There are no safeguards in place to stop it happening.

You donít know how long £2m is going to take. You donít know how likely you are to get there. What if you get to $1.5m in 3 years and you get the 3 losers Ė how sick will you feel then?
I won't feel sick at all because I started with $500 and I have two other working systems so no big deal. It won't be fun but I've lost $500 before so it wouldn't be the first time.

By the way, I've had three losers in a row already and made it. You don't realize that within the losses there are wins being made from the hedging. To a degree, these wins are off-setting the losses. True, it gets the DD out there but it still managed to stay afloat and bounced back.
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Old Apr 26, 2012, 2:51pm   #660
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Re: College Fund Challenge

tkbieber started this thread Ok, I'm back from vacation so back to trading again.
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