College Fund Challenge

This is a discussion on College Fund Challenge within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; Ouch again! Now you are down to just $63.12 profit. Not looking too good....

View Poll Results: How close to my goal of $2,000,000 do you think I will get?
You think I will blow the account and my $100 will be lost. 79 58.52%
You think I will somewhat earn a profit $200-$1,500. 17 12.59%
You think I will get a pretty good return but not close to $2,000,000. 27 20.00%
You think I will get way more then $2,000,000. 12 8.89%
Voters: 135. You may not vote on this poll

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Old Jan 3, 2012, 8:28pm   #541
mjj
Joined Mar 2005
Re: College Fund Challenge

Ouch again! Now you are down to just $63.12 profit. Not looking too good.
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Old Jan 3, 2012, 8:42pm   #542
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Re: College Fund Challenge

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Originally Posted by mjj View Post
Ouch again! Now you are down to just $63.12 profit. Not looking too good.
Yeah, it's a rough past 15 days or so. Now I'll try to get that back in the next 4 trades as that went down on the 1hr chart.
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Old Jan 3, 2012, 9:39pm   #543
 
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Re: College Fund Challenge

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Originally Posted by tkbieber View Post
The logic would be that at the end of a month I'm up over 15%, take my profits and run. The open trades could be potential looses which would take away from my profits down the road. And now that would leave new opportunities for new good set-ups. If you notice on the Duration tab that the majority of the trades closed in under four days and most of the remaining close in under eight days leaving just a few good trades closing in 8-16 days.

Example: Lets say the EURUSD made a buy just before the market began to fall. Also, let's say I just reached 18% after 30 days and cut off all trades including the what-would-be looser. Now the EURUSD is only making sells as it is in a nice bearish trend.

By the way, I've seen where even a trade that becomes a loser and loses 5%, while the market is going against the trade, several good trades happen. I've seen up to 10 good trades. Basically while losing 5% it can get 2-3% back.

I was hoping there'd be some logic in regards to the market. I would of accepted "funds do a lot of positioning at the start of the month and I want to be out for that" or something, it'd be flimsy but I'd accept that you may have thought about it.

I mean, why not close them mid week, pre NFP, when there's a report of a virgin birth, you've essentially just added a random element to your "system".

Now you're closing some losers a day after you opened them, and some 20 days afterwards, when there's no difference between them bar one was opened at the start of the month and one was opened at the end.
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Old Jan 3, 2012, 9:40pm   #544
 
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Re: College Fund Challenge

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Originally Posted by Masquerade View Post
Tell us about the fund which is using your system.

Just basic things such as: how they came about your system, their progress with it etc.
£50 on Renaissance.
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Old Jan 3, 2012, 9:51pm   #545
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Re: College Fund Challenge

tkbieber started this thread
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Originally Posted by Hotch View Post
I was hoping there'd be some logic in regards to the market. I would of accepted "funds do a lot of positioning at the start of the month and I want to be out for that" or something, it'd be flimsy but I'd accept that you may have thought about it.

I mean, why not close them mid week, pre NFP, when there's a report of a virgin birth, you've essentially just added a random element to your "system".

Now you're closing some losers a day after you opened them, and some 20 days afterwards, when there's no difference between them bar one was opened at the start of the month and one was opened at the end.
It's all down to +9% from over 20% now so that is why I may want to close all out at the end of each month if equity is +15% each month.
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Old Jan 3, 2012, 11:15pm   #546
 
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Re: College Fund Challenge

Not posting the charts and results like you usually do? What have you been up to lately? What's next, go even bigger. I know that trick, never fails!

Click the image to open in full size.

You also got rid of the open trades bit, I wonder why..

43 days, 11 pips. That's the way to do it. How much does it cost to hold that trade?

Click the image to open in full size.

Last edited by Masquerade; Jan 3, 2012 at 11:29pm.
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Old Jan 3, 2012, 11:36pm   #547
 
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Re: College Fund Challenge

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Originally Posted by tkbieber View Post
It's all down to +9% from over 20% now so that is why I may want to close all out at the end of each month if equity is +15% each month.
Ok, I think the difference is that I need some "logic" as to why my strategies work, otherwise I'd go:

1-There were really high wind speeds today in the UK.
2-The market went up
3-I'll buy when there are really high wind speeds in the UK.

Correlation != Causation.

Hopefully that explains it, I'll leave it there.
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Thanks! The following members like this post: mjj
Old Jan 3, 2012, 11:49pm   #548
Joined Sep 2010
Re: College Fund Challenge

tkbieber started this thread
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Originally Posted by Hotch View Post
Ok, I think the difference is that I need some "logic" as to why my strategies work, otherwise I'd go:

1-There were really high wind speeds today in the UK.
2-The market went up
3-I'll buy when there are really high wind speeds in the UK.

Correlation != Causation.

Hopefully that explains it, I'll leave it there.
Yeah, EA's don't have logic just follow rules. A good trader should follow rules, whatever they may be and keep emotion out.
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Old Jan 4, 2012, 3:05am   #549
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Re: College Fund Challenge

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Originally Posted by tkbieber View Post
Yeah, EA's don't have logic just follow rules. A good trader should follow rules, whatever they may be and keep emotion out.
Quite right.

And do not lose sight of the fact that despite some recent thumping losses, you are still up over 10% over a two and a half month period.

Do not let the overly critical posts here deter you from your trading goal.
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Old Jan 4, 2012, 3:15am   #550
 
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Re: College Fund Challenge

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And do not lose sight of the fact that despite some recent thumping losses, you are still up over 10% over a two and a half month period.
How do you know that without seeing his open trades? He could be sitting on $400 of losses currently. He was sitting on $500 loss only a few weeks ago. He just lost 60% of his profit, that should be concerning to anyone. It's not about being overly critical, it's called realistic.

Last edited by Masquerade; Jan 4, 2012 at 3:22am.
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Old Jan 4, 2012, 3:53am   #551
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Re: College Fund Challenge

tkbieber started this thread
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How do you know that without seeing his open trades? He could be sitting on $400 of losses currently. He was sitting on $500 loss only a few weeks ago. He just lost 60% of his profit, that should be concerning to anyone. It's not about being overly critical, it's called realistic.
Do you not know how to click on this link:

Click the image to open in full size.

and look at the equity on the upper left of the page?? Look at the balance. Now look at the equity. What do you see?? I see Equity at 100% which means NO OPEN TRADES.

Anytime the equity is LOWER than the balance there is one or more open trades totaling less than the balance. Any time the equity is higher than the balance, their are open trades in the positive.

Let's get educated here guys.
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Old Jan 4, 2012, 3:55am   #552
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Re: College Fund Challenge

tkbieber started this thread
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Originally Posted by marbig View Post
Quite right.

And do not lose sight of the fact that despite some recent thumping losses, you are still up over 10% over a two and a half month period.

Do not let the overly critical posts here deter you from your trading goal.
Yes and generally I have good winning runs. Let's hope for a good January.
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Old Jan 4, 2012, 5:40am   #553
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Re: College Fund Challenge

YIKES!!! That loss hurt...yes lets hope for a good January with lots of volume and a volitile trending market...that is what your system needs to trade at a profit I believe.
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Old Jan 4, 2012, 6:26am   #554
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Re: College Fund Challenge

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Originally Posted by Masquerade View Post
How do you know that without seeing his open trades? He could be sitting on $400 of losses currently. He was sitting on $500 loss only a few weeks ago. He just lost 60% of his profit, that should be concerning to anyone. It's not about being overly critical, it's called realistic.
Masquerade, I am a cynical and jaded professional trader who has seen it all and heard it all before. So don't think that I am a soft touch.

BUT his trading method is built on high risk/high return basis. (He has previously tanked his two previous accounts.)

BUT he is slowly but surely morphing his method into something less extreme and much more interesting.

AND even though he has lost 60% of his account, it is still alive and showing 10.98% over a 10 week period.

Admittedly it is a wild ride for his trading, BUT he has shown persistence with his method and it is interesting to watch his trading progress using a purely mechanical system.
I agree with you that he SHOULD show his open trades (I think that he is being dishonest to the max OR maybe he is being unnecessarily paranoid), but I am prepared to cut him a bit of slack for a while as he continues to work to progress his mechanical trading.
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Old Jan 4, 2012, 10:50am   #555
 
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Re: College Fund Challenge

Quote:
Originally Posted by tkbieber View Post
Do you not know how to click on this link:

Click the image to open in full size.

and look at the equity on the upper left of the page?? Look at the balance. Now look at the equity. What do you see?? I see Equity at 100% which means NO OPEN TRADES.
Funny....because we could see your open trades before and now:

Click the image to open in full size.

Why the sudden change of mind to lock them back up again?
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