Day Trading & Forex Forum

The Baptist

Hi,

I have posted my favourite formation on this commodity (Coffee) for the monthly chart.

It has already given this pattern on both daily and weekly and broken through and I believe it will set up shortly for the annual mega pattern if 1467 is closed above. It is not too late.

I do not know what the fundamentals entail but the charts are making my hands clammy and i have already been in since 1175 for 275 pips. we will no doubt here the full reason later as this chart seems way more bullish than any other soft in my view.

I have posted the Monthly Baptist Flag and the possible Annual Baptist flag take out point. You read it here first, lets hope I am right.

The Baptist

attached

Attached Files

	Coffee Annually.doc (187.0 KB, 217 views)
	Monthly Coffee.doc (203.0 KB, 181 views)

The Baptist

The 1467 level has been utterly blitzed as a resistance line following last weeks failure to hold a close above this level, despite intraday clearance. The market is at 1576 at present after opening at 1411.

It seems mine is a lone voice in the wilderness, nobody is interested, I suppose this means it will run plenty more.

Anyone else want a 170 point single day profit day let me know, else maybe this is a commodity not worth covering with a thread.

I would expect some pullbacks from current highs before the close, given the size of the move.

Pippppin

Coffee is indeed shaping up nicely for a possible long-term move. However, this is a volatile commodity, and significant daily moves are not unusual. Fine if you are on the right side of them. Not enough evidence to my eyes yet.....I do seem to remember coffee being hyped up on an earlier thread. Good luck

DaveT

Interesting move today in London, BUT I see FOUR big factors to counter the runaway bull potential.

1) Poor closeability today - Sept closed around mid-range at 1500.

2) Most of the strength was in the nearby (sept) contract - look at November or January and the chart looks weaker - we counld NOT close above recent highs in those months.

3) Major bearish divergence on this rally, see CCI , or RSI (14).

4) Perceived Robusta supply squeeze is short-term, as harvest starts soon and following crop is expected to be learger.



These 4 factors lead me to expect a further period of consolidation at least. But I agree on the long-term charts (esp monthly) London looks ready to take off.

As for New York, well it's lagging significantly ofcourse, but about to enter it's bullish seasonal time frame. Consequewntly, I expect a correction in the Spread between the 2 markets and the possibility of New York regaining a lead if Flowering season proves dry in Brazil.

I have no position in either market yet, but watching closely now for an entry point.

FWIW.

__________________
David.

The Baptist

thank you both for your comments, for awhile I though nobody was out there.

Fantastic trading day for me as i had what I would describe as 'exceptional trade/ exceptional money management accepted loss ' conditions from the begining at 1175 On this opportunity.

DaveT you raised a couple of interesting ones there.

1. Technically the move was a blow off I could not believe my eyes for about 25 mins. Where the pace is too far to fast, a pull back which may even follow through to tomorrow is natural my most optimistic expectation for today was a close over 1467 the last technical high and place of last failure to close above.

So to me the pull back was expected rather than bad news and I managed to lighten up a bit after it was clear it had topped for the day. Although I have replaced the Buy stops lower down to keep scale on upside move.

2. I place greatest relevance to the contract I trade and its technical merits, it is as likely that the further contracts will firm as the near one will weaken. I am suspicious of broker speak of purely short term shortages, if that was common knowledge surely some particpants could reacted to nonimmediate supply.

3. Divergence of those two indicators is not a reason in its own that I accept (my CCI looks fine by the way, a bit round topped given the pullback I suppose), other indicators are far more confirming, I look at a lot of qtly, and monthly charts so we may be at cross purposes if you are primarily refering to just Daily.

4. Don't know about that statement it may well be accurate, but technically it looks long run up to me and I follow price action over news.

But It was worth while hearing a counterpoint and I appreciate your post and hopefully future others.

The Baptist

Quiet right, i think I am the sole hype merchant around here hence the heading on this one, the quieter it gets the harder I scream!

The Baptist

In the short term both of you may well be on the money as we seem to have an evening star in the making after failure again to hold on to the upper 1500's, I expect a close similar to yesterday after another beating back from 1570's.

Med/Long run still with this trade and have buy stops posted, expect down day tomorrow and possibly beyond for a spell.