donaldduke
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,665
- Likes
- 258
Its fair to say that atleast 80% of all people who attempt to trade are net losers.
That would mean 20,000 of the 23,000 members of this board have net lost money trading. Ands thats a optimistic estimate, it probably more like 22,000 or even higher.
Most would have quit trading by now and are no longer active on this board.
Ofcourse the amount lost varies, some would have given up after losing 500 some after
50,000.
That would mean 20,000 of the 23,000 members of this board have net lost money trading. Ands thats a optimistic estimate, it probably more like 22,000 or even higher.
Most would have quit trading by now and are no longer active on this board.
Ofcourse the amount lost varies, some would have given up after losing 500 some after
50,000.
roguetrader
Senior member
- Messages
- 2,062
- Likes
- 49
sun123 said:
Hi sun123 sorry to hear it's not going well. I am not profitable since I started but am moving up now, though I would imagine it will still be a while before I recover all losses. I am a little curious by the remark in quote, as to what you mean by that. You make it sound like you place your stops by attempting to judge how far is not too close or too far. What type of trading do you do by preference.
dbphoenix
Guest Author
- Messages
- 6,954
- Likes
- 1,266
sun123 said:
If you really want to improve then you'll ask yourself at least a couple of questions:
1. If it's a good trading plan, i.e., profitable, then why aren't you making money with it?
2. If you're not making money with your plan, how do you know it's profitable?
trendie
Legendary member
- Messages
- 6,875
- Likes
- 1,433
sun123,
you are not alone !! I have blown 2 "small" accounts while testing.
I agree, its mostly ego. Admit mistakes, and it is easier to move on.
How long have you been trading ?
The drawdown of 30,000 - over what time period have you lost it ?
Over how many trades ?
You say you have tried all time-frames - but for how long ?
Are you making a few consecutive losses, then deciding to look for something else ?
( ideally you should stick to a plan for a few months to identify whether it is good long-term )
If you have made a few hundred trades, you could identify which types of trades ( 1-2-3, swing, breakout, etc ) are profitable, and which types are losing.
Which trades were triggered in a trending market, which in a ranging market ?
Which style ( 1-2-3, swing, breakout etc ) are most profitable in which type of market ?
If you have enough data, you can identify which style works best for you in which type of market ( trend, range ).
You can then dentify the type of market, and decide to trade the style which is profitable, and not trade an inappropriate style.
Hope all the above makes sense.
The above is the reasoning I am using to decide whether to trade channels / retracements ( when the markets in a range ), and my usual trend-following when the markets trending. ( sometimes buying on a retracement in a trend ).
Remember, you must use the appropriate trade for the state of the market.
keep going.
you are not alone !! I have blown 2 "small" accounts while testing.
I agree, its mostly ego. Admit mistakes, and it is easier to move on.
How long have you been trading ?
The drawdown of 30,000 - over what time period have you lost it ?
Over how many trades ?
You say you have tried all time-frames - but for how long ?
Are you making a few consecutive losses, then deciding to look for something else ?
( ideally you should stick to a plan for a few months to identify whether it is good long-term )
If you have made a few hundred trades, you could identify which types of trades ( 1-2-3, swing, breakout, etc ) are profitable, and which types are losing.
Which trades were triggered in a trending market, which in a ranging market ?
Which style ( 1-2-3, swing, breakout etc ) are most profitable in which type of market ?
If you have enough data, you can identify which style works best for you in which type of market ( trend, range ).
You can then dentify the type of market, and decide to trade the style which is profitable, and not trade an inappropriate style.
Hope all the above makes sense.
The above is the reasoning I am using to decide whether to trade channels / retracements ( when the markets in a range ), and my usual trend-following when the markets trending. ( sometimes buying on a retracement in a trend ).
Remember, you must use the appropriate trade for the state of the market.
keep going.
Good points Trendie.
One I would add. You mention sun that you have backtested, and I assume optimised your strategy, but you still lose money. That may be because;
1) Either you have over-optimsed the system so it doesn't work in real time
2) There are variable factors with discretionary elements in your system which are obvious when analysing what has happened in the past, but more difficult to determine in real time
3) You don't have enough historical data in your backtesting
You don't mention whether your strategy loses money when you started trading it, or if the strategy makes money but you don't. If it is the latter, it should be worth analysing your trades against the strategy trades and seeing what you are doing differently.
There are far more experienced traders here then me but these are a few points that have helped me.
Recently I have also helped a couple of friends get interested in trading, and I have found that has helped my discipline. Moving more towards 'do as I do' rather than 'do as I say'.
With regards to profitability, I have been fortunate that I have never had any draw-down on my trading accounts. Average about £2k/month so far this year, on accounts of appx £22k, though currently having the first losing month since Feb, so am a bit pi**ed off just before Chrimbo.
Started spreadbetting indecies, and made about 10,000 points in my first 2 months, not having a clue what I was doing. As I have got more experienced, that has fallen dramatically!!! Currently trade FX with profit targets of 400-600 pips a month.
If you post some details of your strategy sun, some of the top guys here can give you some more pointers.
Keep going.
G-Man
One I would add. You mention sun that you have backtested, and I assume optimised your strategy, but you still lose money. That may be because;
1) Either you have over-optimsed the system so it doesn't work in real time
2) There are variable factors with discretionary elements in your system which are obvious when analysing what has happened in the past, but more difficult to determine in real time
3) You don't have enough historical data in your backtesting
You don't mention whether your strategy loses money when you started trading it, or if the strategy makes money but you don't. If it is the latter, it should be worth analysing your trades against the strategy trades and seeing what you are doing differently.
There are far more experienced traders here then me but these are a few points that have helped me.
Recently I have also helped a couple of friends get interested in trading, and I have found that has helped my discipline. Moving more towards 'do as I do' rather than 'do as I say'.
With regards to profitability, I have been fortunate that I have never had any draw-down on my trading accounts. Average about £2k/month so far this year, on accounts of appx £22k, though currently having the first losing month since Feb, so am a bit pi**ed off just before Chrimbo.
Started spreadbetting indecies, and made about 10,000 points in my first 2 months, not having a clue what I was doing. As I have got more experienced, that has fallen dramatically!!! Currently trade FX with profit targets of 400-600 pips a month.
If you post some details of your strategy sun, some of the top guys here can give you some more pointers.
Keep going.
G-Man
I´m catching up for tons of lost money - has taken me 5 years to "read" what MM´s really are up to. Paper-trading is probably the best way of avoiding losses. We as small traders don´t have the underlying information such as the momentary money flow in or out of the market. Many combining factors have an impact. 1999/2000 were nice years but the years that followed were ugly for almost everybody.
Some potentially very useful and helpful replies here for you, Sun.
Regarding G-Man's post, with one little exception I totally agree. And G-Man's post uncannily and almost unbelievably mirrors my own experiences. Really ... a very strange feeling to read a post you could almost have written word-for-word yourself!
However, I'm not sure about the "keep going" at the end ... in the longer-term perhaps, but I think that suffering a 30k drawdown from a 50k account is a very good time to _stop_ and reflect and not keep going for the moment. Time for reappraisal, reassessment, addressing DB's questions above, and things like this. (Maybe this was what you meant, anyway.)
"Reculer pour mieux sauter", as the French say, I think?
Regarding G-Man's post, with one little exception I totally agree. And G-Man's post uncannily and almost unbelievably mirrors my own experiences. Really ... a very strange feeling to read a post you could almost have written word-for-word yourself!
However, I'm not sure about the "keep going" at the end ... in the longer-term perhaps, but I think that suffering a 30k drawdown from a 50k account is a very good time to _stop_ and reflect and not keep going for the moment. Time for reappraisal, reassessment, addressing DB's questions above, and things like this. (Maybe this was what you meant, anyway.)
"Reculer pour mieux sauter", as the French say, I think?
Salty Gibbon
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,535
- Likes
- 6
Sun
If you have really lost 30K then you must have been pretty careless and almost certainly you have been playing with far too large a position size.
I started with USD 50K about 18 months ago nearly. The lowest that my pot ever got to was just below USD 49K.
I clawed my way back to USD50K, got up to USD 51K and then began to trade "freely" and with more comfort. I am now making daily profits and have been doing so for around 5 or 6 weeks.
I do not consider that I have "cracked it". That would be a dangerous assumption and I try to be humble although this is often difficult.
I traded very small position size for a long long time and have now increased it up to a point where I am still comfortable. One day I will be trading 1,000 or more shares at a time but not for a while yet. I just keep plugging away - applying my self-made methods - trying to maintain discipline and focus - and keep improving and winning.
Luck only plays a part if you diverge from your system and start to gamble - and it is usually bad luck.
I never realised that it could be such a hard game to win but I do believe that you can win it. It just takes a lot of bloody hard work and application.
timcannell
Member
- Messages
- 88
- Likes
- 1
You say its all about EGO and then say 'I don't have a problem with saying I don't make money, because nobody knows me'; well what part does EGO play in your trading then ? - one part of your trading plan is either flawed or not recieving sufficient care in its execution
sun123 said:Come on guy's does anyone make money from this game. Lets come out and say the truth, For me I lose at this game, im honest, I know there are some on here who try to look good, and if they where loosing they would not say,
It's all about EGO. Well, for me I don't have a problem with saying I don't make money, because nobody knows me.
How much does one make from this game week in week out. For me im down to 20k
So come guy's lets start a debate here, who is for real does anyone make money from trading,and if you do whats the best time frame,iv;e tied them all.and day trading i lost the most.
sun
I agree with salty. to lose that much (as I have done in terms of %) you have to be doing one or a combo of the following:
a) trading too big for account size
b) over trading
c) doubling up and chasing losses.
They are the usual suspects but of course there are others. If you SB then the whole process is a lot quicker. After losing 60% of capital I will be back level in spring. funny thing is, it took me 2.5 years ish to lose that level of capital, most of it on probably between 5 and 10 foolish (to say the least) trades. It will have taken me 10 months to get back even on a series of successful smaller trades.
what made the change? dunno really. I always knew what i had to do to be successfull but for whatever reason could not and did not apply it. Know am am applying it and it works, surprise surprise.
In short, it is possible to be successful but it is not easy and takes a lot of hard work, not just coming up with a system but to excercise the self control necessary to break on thru to other side. as Jim Morrison once said.
through adversity comes opportunity
a) trading too big for account size
b) over trading
c) doubling up and chasing losses.
They are the usual suspects but of course there are others. If you SB then the whole process is a lot quicker. After losing 60% of capital I will be back level in spring. funny thing is, it took me 2.5 years ish to lose that level of capital, most of it on probably between 5 and 10 foolish (to say the least) trades. It will have taken me 10 months to get back even on a series of successful smaller trades.
what made the change? dunno really. I always knew what i had to do to be successfull but for whatever reason could not and did not apply it. Know am am applying it and it works, surprise surprise.
In short, it is possible to be successful but it is not easy and takes a lot of hard work, not just coming up with a system but to excercise the self control necessary to break on thru to other side. as Jim Morrison once said.
through adversity comes opportunity
I've been doing some thinking and changes to my trading over the year, I think one of the biggest problems with trading is that when following even a good trading plan traders are almost always EXITING trades on price weakness.
An example if you go long a market and it goes against you ie weakness you get stopped out .
Even if the trade goes your way and you trail your stop that stop will always be hit on weakness as the price retraces from higher prices and larger profits.
Often giving back a lot of profit. I have changed my strategies to try and take profits only on strength, I think it is the main reason for turning my trading around.
An example if you go long a market and it goes against you ie weakness you get stopped out .
Even if the trade goes your way and you trail your stop that stop will always be hit on weakness as the price retraces from higher prices and larger profits.
Often giving back a lot of profit. I have changed my strategies to try and take profits only on strength, I think it is the main reason for turning my trading around.
have to do the correct amount of research and back testing so that the stop levels you set are realsitic, and so that you know with a high probabliity that if the price hits a particular level, it is likely to fall (or rise) further, depending on whether you are long or short.
that way you can filter out the noise.
that way you can filter out the noise.
hi Sun,
I am interested to know if you were successful at trading before you gave up work to trade? i gather that to give up your job and put £50k on the line you must have been doing pretty well - what happened?
I have been trading successfully for some time now and although I take regular losses, i have learnt to chop them early and let the winners run. i trade over a period of days to approx 1-2 months and very occasionally intraday. It sounds like your strategy is not as good as you thought it was. i would not agree with the post above that says time to stop, but would say it is time to seriously consider and revise your strategy. Are your stops set at support levels or where you feel happy? Are you over trading?
Good luck!
I am interested to know if you were successful at trading before you gave up work to trade? i gather that to give up your job and put £50k on the line you must have been doing pretty well - what happened?
I have been trading successfully for some time now and although I take regular losses, i have learnt to chop them early and let the winners run. i trade over a period of days to approx 1-2 months and very occasionally intraday. It sounds like your strategy is not as good as you thought it was. i would not agree with the post above that says time to stop, but would say it is time to seriously consider and revise your strategy. Are your stops set at support levels or where you feel happy? Are you over trading?
Good luck!
dbphoenix
Guest Author
- Messages
- 6,954
- Likes
- 1,266
sun123 said:5,Im sure there is more
Sun
Yes, there is. I rarely find beginners who have trading plans (I'd like to say "never", but there must have been one somewhere that I may have forgotten). And by "trading plan", I mean something that's detailed, specific, tested, and profitable. Instead, they have what is at best a collection of ideas that seem good and which they try out, often with real money, in order to see what happens. This is not a plan.
Anyone who trades with a plan is leagues ahead of those who don't, which is nearly everybody. I suppose no one bothers with it because it's work. But plan beats no plan every time.
