shadowninja
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Back-testing and forward-testing is your only hope in terms of helping you trust your indicators/setup more, I'd have thought.
traderunner1
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guess what you cannot predict, no-one can, no indicator can., you only can put odds in your favor
TR
You can't know exactly what the market will do next. But this is a game of probabilities, so its possible to line up what might happen in order of probability. And then, you must know very precisely in advance what YOU will do. Definitely don't wait until you're in a position before you work out what you will do if...
At this stage, concentrate on making only very small losses.
At this stage, concentrate on making only very small losses.
trader_dante
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If you wanted to buy a vintage car on Ebay and you knew the exact make, model and condition you wanted but not the price you would be expected to pay, what would you do?
Rossini
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Err, google it ;-)
Rossini
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Serious answer,
I don't want to get into the debate of PA vs indicators etc... but if you are comfortable using them then learn to build a structure around that thought.
At the very least you will need to know:
1. What's your entry trigger?
2. What's you exit signal?
3. How are you going to absorb losses quickly, yet preserve a winning trade?
4. What money management are you going to use?
5. Can you be bothered doing all of the above and 100 times more? If not save your self the time and money.
Cheers
R
trader_dante
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Hehe
But I was thinking more of the fact that you would look at the highest price it was offered and the lowest price and take other factors into account such as how many bidders there were at what price and how much time each offer had until expiry.
In laymans terms, you would go on the one thing that is immediately identifiable and puts the "value" in context: namely, the price itself.
What you wouldn't do is draw a list of all the car prices on ebay and then apply a 14 period RSI over it in order to make you decide what to bid...
Would you?
Honestly, indicators baffle me.
meanreversion
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I've struggled to find any statistical edge in indicators, over many different time frames (and I've tested out a LOT of indicator based strategies). What I have tended to find is that each indicator has its day in the sun, when it encounters the right conditions and becomes profitable, until such time as it stops being profitable. You might find that an indicator based set of rules works very well for a couple of years, and then bombs. How do you know when the indicator is just going through drawdown or its usefulness has expired? Tough one..
traderunner1
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The only indicator based strategy i found useful, that i use extensively for over 5 years in all markets i am in are oscillator (or momentum) based divergences. I will only take those as set ups in case there is a clear support/resistance present. This absolutely works. The higher the timeframe the better the odds
There are however periods that also divergences seem to "dry up"mainly in lower volatility periods. heard someone else mention that earlier. In my experience this has to do with lack of clear S/R areas, as clearly visualised with Market profile.
TR
There are however periods that also divergences seem to "dry up"mainly in lower volatility periods. heard someone else mention that earlier. In my experience this has to do with lack of clear S/R areas, as clearly visualised with Market profile.
TR
new_trader
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No, it's not a tough one at all. Avoid them ALL and start using your brains and think like a real trader instead of depending on some geek software engineers idea of what is what.
Rossini
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I didn't want to get into this debate as the thread could quickly go off topic, but to answer your post Tom: No you wouldn't randomly apply a 14 period RSI (or any other indicator for that matter) over your results and expect to come out with something meaningful.
What you might do is experiment and if you find some other sort of pattern (based on indicators or not) then you might try to exploit it. For example, if you found that these cars tend to fetch a higher price down south you might buy the cars up north then sell them down south for a profit. This is a pattern and you can obviously exploit it.
The fact is that patterns in the markets are no different than patterns in other forms of business. So find a pattern, form a plan, and trade the f**k out of it.
Whether this is a pattern using indicators, PA, fundamentals, or anything and everything in-between it really does not matter.
P.S. NT, your eyes are so firmly shut that im surprised you don't walk around bumping into stuff ;-).
new_trader
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Rossini, as usual, you are 'talking' when you ought to be 'listening'. Now, go and paint some pretty coloured lines all over your 7 (or is it 9 now?) screens in case you miss a 'set-up' or guess or whatever...
In regards to the OP, I think I was in a similar situation to you when I first started trading a few months ago. I remember trying out loads of indicators hoping to find the perfect combination and setups etc. But actually, Ive found that whats more important is finding a market you are comfortable with(e.g. do you prefer volatile markets? trading hours? roughly know when the big plays of the day will happen etc) and getting to know that market inside and out. Once you do this you can start to forget what the indicators are telling you (well sort of) because the knowledge you've gained from trading that particular market will (I believe) give you a better judgement than what the indicators are telling you.
meanreversion
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No, it's not a tough one at all. Avoid them ALL and start using your brains and think like a real trader instead of depending on some geek software engineers idea of what is what.
Does a moving average count as an indicator?
B
Black Swan
Rossini, as usual, you are 'talking' when you ought to be 'listening'. Now, go and paint some pretty coloured lines all over your 7 (or is it 9 now?) screens in case you miss a 'set-up' or guess or whatever...
I always thought your avatar looked like a snake as opposed to the tape, equally appropriate...
meanreversion
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I don't see how you can trade in the absence of all indicators. How do you determine position size if you don't know the ATR, for example?
oiltanker
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op
yes, unless one has order clerk mates who tell you where the big offers and and bids are, we are all 'guessing' what the institutions, cbs and sovereigns are doing and hoping to piggy back on their moves.
every system works in a trend [players are not scalping for 10pts but larger moves]. so its a question of limiting the risk.
if you trade any setup you really do not 'know' what will happen next. what you can know is what you will do if price goes to x or y and through backtesting what the likelihood of it doing so e.g 6 out 10 or whatever.
if we do not play our game we are playing someone else's game which is just being meat for the grinder?
yes, unless one has order clerk mates who tell you where the big offers and and bids are, we are all 'guessing' what the institutions, cbs and sovereigns are doing and hoping to piggy back on their moves.
every system works in a trend [players are not scalping for 10pts but larger moves]. so its a question of limiting the risk.
if you trade any setup you really do not 'know' what will happen next. what you can know is what you will do if price goes to x or y and through backtesting what the likelihood of it doing so e.g 6 out 10 or whatever.
if we do not play our game we are playing someone else's game which is just being meat for the grinder?
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N Rothschild
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i trade with the abscence of all indicators, infact i dont even know what ATR is? not sure why you would need an indicator to determine your position size
