Learning profitable automated trading

This is a discussion on Learning profitable automated trading within the General Trading Chat forums, part of the T2W Archive category; ODT, I think you're missing the point. I don't see anything wrong with wanting to automate some tasks since program ...

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Old Apr 20, 2010, 8:38pm   #183
Joined Sep 2008
Re: Learning profitable automated trading

ODT, I think you're missing the point. I don't see anything wrong with wanting to automate some tasks since program trading has been around for years although I dont want to discuss the pros or cons of that here. The issue here is you're trying to program a model in market(s) that you don't have enough experience in. You admitted in another thread somewhere you dont trade forex, just write programs for that market. Do you really understand what makes the dollar rise, or the pound fall, or the aussie consolidate?? Fundamentals are difficult to program at best but you absolutely have to understand WHY price does what it does for each specific market in order to create an automated program. Perfect example is the troublesome 4 digit/5 digit problem you were having trying to back test. There is an easy, few lines of code, solution to that. But you have a very poor explanation of why you were having trouble at all.

Several people here, myself included, have ridiculed some of your posts. I actually feel bad because I do understand what you are trying to achieve and I applaud you for it. You just don't have enough understanding of real trading to speak intelligently on the subject.

Another example, you show 30% drawdown, which in itself isn't extreme, but at the rate and size your program wins it takes forever to recover. Even someone using an autopilot program will shut it off after a very long drawdown period even if the drawdown is small. All good manual traders can recover from drawdowns within very reasonable time.

I hope this comes across right?

Peter
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Old Apr 20, 2010, 8:45pm   #184
Joined Jan 2009
Re: Learning profitable automated trading

If the CAGR of the system / max drawdown is less than 0.5, it's gonna be a tough one to make money from or stick with. For me, this is one of the better measures of a system's worth. Beyond that, look at the standard error, or variation in returns.

I'd be wary of trading a system with more than 40 pct drawdown in backtesting.. people will always underestimate their ability to tolerate drawdown. It's possible to devise systems with close to 100 pct annual returns but which might see a drawdown of 80 pct or so --- I don't believe anyone can tolerate that.

Start off small, become comfortable then increase the stake size and learn to live with the equity swings. If you've done your homework properly, you will have created statistical edge for yourself.
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Old Apr 20, 2010, 9:02pm   #185
 
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Re: Learning profitable automated trading

Well, just read this thread from the start and wanted to point a few things out. ODT was trying to show/teach people some of his systems (all of which are apparently posted to be unprofitable - don't really see the point in that).

However along the way he has shown a lot of contradicting posts. Personally I think this is just the mods messing around .

Quote:
This is your opportunity to experience trading at investment bank .
Right, apparently investment bankers are using systems like this on MT4. This should have been a warning sign right at the start he was a BSer

Quote:
The version in this threadl are entertainment versions ,and are not expected to make money.I use the professional versions which I do not discuss on forums.
Oh right, so investment bankers use unprofitable trading strategies to make their money! I don't really see the point in posting unprofitable systems, no knowledge to be gained apart from what to avoid!

Quote:
Originally Posted by everyonerich View Post
how come youre not sharing ea that are running on live accounts? can u pls share or are you trolling again..?
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ODT:
I have just shared some of my EAS.If I give out my edge over the rest , I will be unable to use the EAS for myself, because I will be paying 1 extra bar for my own trades.There the edge is gone.
Quote:
If 10,000 traders were to start using the same expert advisor on oil , trading 10 lots at the same time, you would get , 100,000 lots bid or sold at the same time.The system would start failing or become very successful.
Sorry??? Which one is it. Will the system become a self fulfilling prophecy or will it be a fight of latency?

Quote:
This thread was not about sharing private property .It took me 10,000 hours and a cost of $200,000 , to develop these EAS.
Oh right, so what's that? 1 1/2 years without sleeping? Hang on, you spent $200,000?

Quote:
The thread was to share some EAS for new traders to help in the experience of automated trading..

If ever I decide to sell EAS , I would contact the admin and sales of this forum to talk serious business.

We do not need to sell EAS , because at $100 per point * 50 points per day,they make $1,250,000 per annum.


O D T
Wait a minute there chap, you spent $200,000 - why not trade that $100 per point you were on about?

Quote:
If the EAS in this thread were profitable, they would cease to remain profitable because 100 k lots bids/offers simultaneously would kill the edge.
Glad we cleared that one up, so they won't become a self fulfilled prophecy they'll just fail hugely if he was to post them.

Quote:
We as small traders have to trade within our account sizes and make money.Our job is to trade with $10,000 , if that is all we have in our accounts.Our job is to follow trends, trends are confirmed in breakout zones .
Wait, you spent $200,000 on systems, and could be trading $100 a point - but infact you only have $10,000? What's the point in spending 95% of your capital on system creation?!

Quote:
I know everybody wants to make real money.

Here is an opportunity to sell signals based on this free system.When signals are generated ,send them out to signal buyers and earn real money.

Go to options and use the email function
Oh right, so that's why you have over 50 systems. To send out emails to C2 and Zulutrade. Now I understand why you have that vendor badge and didn't tell us why.

Quote:
Here is an update on automated currency programs. The programs went on live account on 21 st December 2009 with 6,500 and have produced 1532.51 profit in 3 months. The automated programs were trading $1 per pip with real money.
What about that $100 ODT? Thought you were making millions!

Quote:
My automated programs can make around $20 m a year in risk free income for a $300m currency fund .Bill Lipshultz A currency fund manager makes about $15 m a year in risk free income from fund management fees. Over 10 years they can generate $200 m in risk free income.This is why we must keep these programs a secret.
Wait a minute, I thought you said the bigger the size the more the system fails?

Quote:
The demo version is entertainment version and learning/experiencing automated trading.It wasn't meant to be a profitable system .
Again, why? It'd be more worthwhile to point someone to a pdf in MQL than posting a non-profitable system.

Quote:
Spread is included , commisision does not apply and knock 1 pip off for slippage , still left with a handsome 6 pips per trade
I thought you said previously that only amateurs don't include slippage?

Quote:
I don't back test after 2008, due to lack of data and most brokers switching to 5 digits,but use forward tests and live accounts for testing and trading.
This is easily overcome.

Quote:
Can get old data on the net ,but very little data after 2009.I suspect the bucket shops got worried about lawsuits on their fills ,stop hunting and spread widening.
You can't be serious?

-------------------
Just a few from the start of this thread, some other threads and the posts created today are crackers. Especially the comment about being more sophiscated IB's. Also the post about each EA costing $500 to make - (200000/500 = 400 EA's to send out false signals ).

Anyways, ODT I hope you recover from your massive 95% drawdown from trading capital due to investing in system creation. Also, good luck on getting past your pocket money phase. I hope you and your "team" bring some more entertainment to trade2win.

Phil.
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Old Apr 20, 2010, 9:06pm   #186
Joined Mar 2007
Re: Learning profitable automated trading

oildaytrader started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by wackypete2 View Post
Fundamentals are difficult to program at best but you absolutely have to understand WHY price does what it does for each specific market in order to create an automated program.

Perfect example is the troublesome 4 digit/5 digit problem you were having trying to back test. There is an easy, few lines of code, solution to that. But you have a very poor explanation of why you were having trouble at all.


Another example, you show 30% drawdown, which in itself isn't extreme, but at the rate and size your program wins it takes forever to recover. Even someone using an autopilot program will shut it off after a very long drawdown period even if the drawdown is small. All good manual traders can recover from drawdowns within very reasonable time.

?
Peter
W P

Price says everything , automated programs detect price movements , there is no need to code fundamentals.Price movements lag or precede fundamental triggers, smart money may get in earlier than fundamental triggers , or later than triggers.Price says it all.

4 into 5 digits back testing is a nightmare when there are almost 40 EAS to test , each e a has 3500 lines of code ,there are several pairs to test and each test can take 1 to 4 days run on a fast desk top.Changing digits on 40 EAS is very time consuming.

30 % drawdown is high , here we start with half the system for 15 % drawdown and increase to full system after sufficient profits are made to cover 30% .

Hope you understand

O D T
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Old Apr 20, 2010, 9:13pm   #187
Joined Jan 2009
Re: Learning profitable automated trading

ODT, you are making the erroneous assumption that you know more about mechanical systems and/or trading than the other recent respondants. The level of thought and intelligence which has gone into some of these replies highlights your lack of it, I'm afraid.
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Old Apr 20, 2010, 9:14pm   #188
Joined Jan 2009
Re: Learning profitable automated trading

RespondEnts.. sh*t, I knew that was mis-spelt the instant I sent it.... gazounds
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Old Apr 20, 2010, 9:19pm   #189
 
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Re: Learning profitable automated trading

hey odt, dug this out of my brokers transaction history, this was a superb day, nearly 1050 contracts traded, thats about 20 million in notional value.

i left my name clear so others can confirm my name is infact Andrew.

now whos trading pocket money?

how d'ya like those apples
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