Learning profitable automated trading

This is a discussion on Learning profitable automated trading within the General Trading Chat forums, part of the Reception category; Originally Posted by meanreversion True, but my medium term project is to try to evaluate if there is value in ...

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Old Apr 20, 2010, 7:06pm   #166
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Re: Learning profitable automated trading

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Originally Posted by meanreversion View Post
True, but my medium term project is to try to evaluate if there is value in optimizing my parameters in the future. I use Amibroker, which has an excellent walk forward application.. I have about 5 or 6 parameters.... does it make sense to re-optimize once a year? It's going to take a bit of testing to work it out.
I do not believe in optimisation or optimising every so often. A strategy must stand the test of time without any changes, unless improvements are added.If parameters are optimised to suit today's market conditions, market conditions tomorrow could revert to previous conditions etc etc etc , so you are always chasing your tail optimising and constantly re optimising.
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Old Apr 20, 2010, 7:07pm   #167
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Re: Learning profitable automated trading

Well, my approach is this .. the market takes no prisoners so you need to be very honest about your capabilities. If you're good at discretionary, good luck to you. I know I suck at it.. moreover, having spent over ten years trading at some fairly large banks, I know that the vast majority of traders suck at it. If there are 100 traders at a sell side institution, I doubt if more than 5 are good discretionary traders.. nearly all of them make money from client flow. So, each to their own devices. If I was a multi-billionaire from trading, I would feel in a position to advise others. But I'm not, so I'll only say what works for me. Each person needs to find their own method.
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Old Apr 20, 2010, 7:10pm   #168
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Re: Learning profitable automated trading

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Originally Posted by oildaytrader View Post
I do not believe in optimisation or optimising every so often. A strategy must stand the test of time without any changes, unless improvements are added.If parameters are optimised to suit today's market conditions, market conditions tomorrow could revert to previous conditions etc etc etc , so you are always chasing your tail optimising and constantly re optimising.
Have you backtested to see whether re-optimization actually works? Simpy saying 'it's like chasing your tail' has no basis in empirical evidence ... you should know better than that.
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Old Apr 20, 2010, 7:11pm   #169
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Re: Learning profitable automated trading

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Originally Posted by N Rothschild View Post
simple fact is, if you were capable of discretionary trading you would do it. you turn to automated systems in the hope they will make you rich because you cant do it yourself. well guess what, its not going to make you rich!
You should only be trading three to four trades a year, the automated systems do pick those trades

Sitting infront of a computer sweating ,tense,missing trades , frustrated and bonkers with same old underwear 250 days a year..
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Old Apr 20, 2010, 7:30pm   #170
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Re: Learning profitable automated trading

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Originally Posted by meanreversion View Post
Have you backtested to see whether re-optimization actually works? Simpy saying 'it's like chasing your tail' has no basis in empirical evidence ... you should know better than that.
I used to optimise strategies , but gave up in favour of robust systems.I found the strategies needing optimisation failed sooner or later.

If you look at market conditions over a period of time, and I am talking about currencies,there is no fixed time or pattern as to how long current market conditions will remain in place, or when they will change, and to what market conditions.

Optimisation can work but you gotta know what exactly to optimise.This is why one needs to have expert knowledge in the instruments traded.Re optimisation will work if expert knowledge is applied.

O D T
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Old Apr 20, 2010, 7:38pm   #171
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Re: Learning profitable automated trading

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Originally Posted by N Rothschild View Post
simple fact is, if you were capable of discretionary trading you would do it. you turn to automated systems in the hope they will make you rich because you cant do it yourself. well guess what, its not going to make you rich!
Misconception:If rule based automated systems can produce a profitable strategy, a manual discretionary should be able to do exactly the same as a computer.

Manual traders suffer from all the disadvantages and weaknesses.
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Old Apr 20, 2010, 7:48pm   #172
 
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Re: Learning profitable automated trading

its not a misconception, your thread demonstrates perfectly how crap these systems are
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Old Apr 20, 2010, 7:54pm   #173
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Re: Learning profitable automated trading

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its not a misconception, your thread demonstrates perfectly how crap these systems are

How come 95% of traders lose money when such profitable and robust methods are considered crap?Are they using crappier methods?
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Old Apr 20, 2010, 8:00pm   #174
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Re: Learning profitable automated trading

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Originally Posted by oildaytrader View Post
I used to optimise strategies , but gave up in favour of robust systems.I found the strategies needing optimisation failed sooner or later.

If you look at market conditions over a period of time, and I am talking about currencies,there is no fixed time or pattern as to how long current market conditions will remain in place, or when they will change, and to what market conditions.

Optimisation can work but you gotta know what exactly to optimise.This is why one needs to have expert knowledge in the instruments traded.Re optimisation will work if expert knowledge is applied.

O D T
Ok look.. I think we are on the same page as far as using mechanical systems is concerned, however some of your responses are a bit flaky and indicate lack of clarity in your thinking.

Of course a system needs to be robust, it goes without saying.

You don't use optimization? Wrong. Any system you use will have at LEAST 4 parameters, and how did you select them.... you just guessed? And having guessed these numbers, you didn't then think to see how your system might have worked if you altered them slightly? You're being economical with the truth OR your thinking is woolly.

Bill Dunn at Dunn Capital re-optimizes every now and then, and he has considerably more money than you.

You're on the right track but your pseudo-scientific responses betray a lack of thorough understanding at times.
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Old Apr 20, 2010, 8:04pm   #175
 
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Re: Learning profitable automated trading

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How come 95% of traders lose money when such profitable and robust methods are considered crap?Are they using crappier methods?
i would bet that the ratio of failed discretionary traders is lower than failed automated heaps
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Old Apr 20, 2010, 8:10pm   #176
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Re: Learning profitable automated trading

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i would bet that the ratio of failed discretionary traders is lower than failed automated heaps
The number of failed discretionary traders is probably in millions >xm +, number of failed automated heap < 100k
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Old Apr 20, 2010, 8:16pm   #177
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Re: Learning profitable automated trading

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i would bet that the ratio of failed discretionary traders is lower than failed automated heaps


The world's most consistently profitable and successful trader uses computer models

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/gene...st-trader.html

Says a lot about the discretionary losers.
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Old Apr 20, 2010, 8:20pm   #178
 
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Re: Learning profitable automated trading

now you are really displaying your ignorance.

you think the "computer models" are in anyway related to the complete crap you make? lol.
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Bullsh!t, Bearsh!t all smells the same to me!

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Old Apr 20, 2010, 8:21pm   #179
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Re: Learning profitable automated trading

oildaytrader started this thread
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now you are really displaying your ignorance.

you think the "computer models" are in anyway related to the complete crap you make? lol.
Mine is more profitable
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Old Apr 20, 2010, 8:28pm   #180
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Re: Learning profitable automated trading

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Originally Posted by cr6196 View Post
u can actually see some of his research papers on an old version of his website...yeh i can't see him hammering away on mt4 at $1 a point
pennies make pounds .I always like to start small and increase stakes , don't worry stakes will go up to $100 pp eventually.

Stochastic entries may be random , but only if you knew what other intellectual knowledge was coded to make it non random.

The metatrader is better than platforms used hedgies.
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