N Rothschild
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carry on...
Potential setups 2
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CTGCollins
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Discontinuation of "Potential setups 1"
I have my doubts that us small time traders are any bother to the big fish. However, I can see how they would use the information that we post (especially where our stops are!!). I didn't think the bigger traders would bother stop hunting small fry like us, but then TD may have other knowledge of this.
I am still short EURUSD from 1.3996 with 2 units. I won't say where my stop is, but I tried to add to the position on the last retrace yesterday and found that it had stopped out overnight while I was asleep - bugger. At least I took some profit on the new shorts- enough to almost cover the losses I incurred with earlier shorts on the way to the top that got stopped out. The trade is still looking OK so might try adding again if I can see a better top forming again.
Addendum 1: Shocker of a day. have been trying to short each new peak today thinking it's going to be reasonable and turn around and head south again. Crazy me! Has cost lots of account and now looks like its going to stop me out again. Wish I had gone long at the break of the short trendline from yesterday instead. I should learn that when a trend learn is broken it is time to think about the opposite position. Instead I seem to get locked into this mindset that the bigger trend is down and that I should only go short. Well this has cost some hundreds of my demo account today so am hanging my head in shame... Yet another newbie foible...
Regards Chris
you really think people are doing that to a basic pin bar setup on trade2win?
I have my doubts that us small time traders are any bother to the big fish. However, I can see how they would use the information that we post (especially where our stops are!!). I didn't think the bigger traders would bother stop hunting small fry like us, but then TD may have other knowledge of this.
I am still short EURUSD from 1.3996 with 2 units. I won't say where my stop is, but I tried to add to the position on the last retrace yesterday and found that it had stopped out overnight while I was asleep - bugger. At least I took some profit on the new shorts- enough to almost cover the losses I incurred with earlier shorts on the way to the top that got stopped out. The trade is still looking OK so might try adding again if I can see a better top forming again.
Addendum 1: Shocker of a day. have been trying to short each new peak today thinking it's going to be reasonable and turn around and head south again. Crazy me! Has cost lots of account and now looks like its going to stop me out again. Wish I had gone long at the break of the short trendline from yesterday instead. I should learn that when a trend learn is broken it is time to think about the opposite position. Instead I seem to get locked into this mindset that the bigger trend is down and that I should only go short. Well this has cost some hundreds of my demo account today so am hanging my head in shame... Yet another newbie foible...
Regards Chris
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Jaydee
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you really think people are doing that to a basic pin bar setup on trade2win?
Can't see why not if certain, bigger locals made squeeze plays and assuming enough volume got put in at these levels from people following the thread. Can see it happening on shorter timeframes - longer ones would obviously be more difficult. There's plenty of people following the thread, whether they are actually trading it is a different matter.
I was trading Footsie pinbar, this morning, and am ahead. It's a poor market and it's only a few points.
If you back test what happened on previous occasions you might get an idea of how far the big boys are willing to test your stops. Lots of guys follow the book and put the SL just beyond the pin. If everyone does that, you can imagine what the pros are going to do! Those stops will get triggered in no time---unless the market does make a serious attempt to go in your direction at once.
Split
If you back test what happened on previous occasions you might get an idea of how far the big boys are willing to test your stops. Lots of guys follow the book and put the SL just beyond the pin. If everyone does that, you can imagine what the pros are going to do! Those stops will get triggered in no time---unless the market does make a serious attempt to go in your direction at once.
Split
So, what should be the ideal solution then? personally sticking with 4hry and dailies, dont really think some come can manipulate that far and in forex
Jaydee
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So, what should be the ideal solution then? personally sticking with 4hry and dailies, dont really think some come can manipulate that far and in forex
Wouldn't make a difference in FX market as it is strongly fundamental driven and super deep. However, it could make a difference with the index futures markets, as one example, as they are often driven speculatively.
So, what should be the ideal solution then? personally sticking with 4hry and dailies, dont really think some come can manipulate that far and in forex
Pin Bars Introduction
You have, probably, read much of this stuff in other articles but this guy acknowledges that the SL should be beyond the bar high/low. He suggests 10 points. Anyway, see what you think. Each instrument must be different but backtesting a bit should give an idea of what might be prudent.
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I don't think that traders should be naive about this SL business. If an article, or book is published, with an idea and part of that idea is stop position, or distance, with the result that everyone does it, the professionals will visit that area, during the session, and clean them all out.
It's not a question that the big boys aren't interested in tiddlers' positions. The problem is that the shoal of tiddlers is in the wrong place at the wrong time and along comes this shark, with its mouth open and that's it! The lot goes in, big'uns and little'uns and the market doesn't even know that they were there.
It's not a question that the big boys aren't interested in tiddlers' positions. The problem is that the shoal of tiddlers is in the wrong place at the wrong time and along comes this shark, with its mouth open and that's it! The lot goes in, big'uns and little'uns and the market doesn't even know that they were there.
trendie
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wont that just create a new pattern?
a pin-bar followed by an engulfing pin-bar. (the first pin-bar, where the tiddlers enter at eye-line. then a second pin-bar going beyond the nose, taking out the stops, and then rebounding back to the original eye-line, and then onwards)
if there is sufficient data to say pin-bar set-ups are being faded, wont number-crunching show this, and in so doing, create a new pattern where you take the trade at the nose of the previous pin-bar. this might give a better risk/reward, as the stop-loss could be tighter.
just be sure to tear this post up, and eat it. dont mention this to anyone. shhh. TOP SECRET.
trendie
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maybe missed it by a bit, but a lower TF OB hook back into the downmove, perhaps?
Attachments
Thanks Split, although I am still a kind of newbie in trading world but what I have seen is most of the time a nice pinbar on higher time frames are usually a head and shoulders pattern in a smaller TF and signals a trend reveral in that particular TF ( formation of new HH-HL/ LL-LH). So, traditionally people dont place the stops at extremes or even 10 pips below the pivot. I look for retracement of the original pinbar in higher TF,if it is a nice setups then I would like to enter at 38 fib retracement or I look for a pinbar/ bearish or bullish setup at 38 fib retracement or even 50 fib if the prices exceed the beyond the 61.8 fib then there is highly likely chances of failures of pinbar. I mean thats what my observation is, may be i am totally wrong and I dont mind at all.
But, honestly I undertand where ur comming from if proper A++ pinbar have a 90% probability of winning then it will be really conservative to keep a stops 10 pips away from the nose and risking the same amount or %. The problems comes with small traders like me who cannot afford a monster pinbar +10 pips stoploss, as sometimes risk: reward are like 1:1 or I get stopped whilst trailing the stops.
Probably, i should spend some time backtesting and see the results.
Cheers!
Technically Fundamental
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But having stop losses below the pin is nothing new. And having your stop loss below the low or high of an inside bar when it breaks is nothing new. Sometimes it triggers an inside bar or a pin bar one way then comes back and just knocks out the stops. It was doing that months ago and for as long as I have been looking at pin bars and inside bars. There have always been plenty of fakeouts.
Anyway even if you are worried about that, then why not adjust? Wait for the pin to trigger, but don't enter until a pull back, or have your stop in a different place, or if fading the pin is what these 'big' traders are doing, then fade the pin yourself
Anyway even if you are worried about that, then why not adjust? Wait for the pin to trigger, but don't enter until a pull back, or have your stop in a different place, or if fading the pin is what these 'big' traders are doing, then fade the pin yourself
Technically Fundamental
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Dont use stops. Haven't you ever been stopped out to just see the market turn back around and go your way?
foredog
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Maybe there's just nothing ideal setting up?
doing nothing is a position.
Think I'll go for a swim instead and come back after the 1330 (uk) figures.
vinicius
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But having stop losses below the pin is nothing new. And having your stop loss below the low or high of an inside bar when it breaks is nothing new. Sometimes it triggers an inside bar or a pin bar one way then comes back and just knocks out the stops. It was doing that months ago and for as long as I have been looking at pin bars and inside bars. There have always been plenty of fakeouts.
Anyway even if you are worried about that, then why not adjust? Wait for the pin to trigger, but don't enter until a pull back, or have your stop in a different place, or if fading the pin is what these 'big' traders are doing, then fade the pin yourself
You dont need to wait the pin or inside bar to trigger.. Just find a good level of S/R and play the LEVEL. You get really tight entries and SL pretty small.
A LOT of times you get an entry at the nail of the pin.
To be honest, I dont know what you guys see at pins, inside bar and stuff. You just need to know where the price is going to stop and move back. It does not matter if it`s a reversal or just a retracement. If you look you find the hot spots pretty easy.
Agree, Its the LEVEL thats important, pullbacks and bounces to S/R, supply and demand.
There seems to be too much emphasis on looking for the Trigger at these Levels.
Technically Fundamental
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That all depends on the size of your account. I know I cant afford to be getting stopped out all the time so I need my stops to be as tight as poss.
Jaydee
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Sure, but you could drop the size you are trading to wear a slightly larger stop. Trading a 1 lot future with a stop of 20 ticks has the same theoretical risk as trading 2 lots with a stop of 10 ticks.
