Is this the beginning of a Bull market?

Is this a bull market?

  • Yes

    Votes: 4 10.3%

  • No

    Votes: 29 74.4%

  • Waiting for more info (please specify)

    Votes: 6 15.4%
  • Total voters
    39
M

MrGecko

Senior member
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Whats with these equities?

First it was a bull trap, then a sucker rally, then a longer term retracement......

Are we in a bull market?
 
bear market rally/dead cat bounce.....call it what you will. you can't reinflate a debt bubble with (wait for it) more debt......wait until unemploymetn really hits. the syndicated debt on non-MBS securities will cause another wave of bank write downs...you just wait. perfet time to be long puts/put gamma. VIX over 50 too....long vol of vol
 
gooseman said:
bear market rally/dead cat bounce.....call it what you will. you can't reinflate a debt bubble with (wait for it) more debt......wait until unemploymetn really hits. the syndicated debt on non-MBS securities will cause another wave of bank write downs...you just wait. perfet time to be long puts/put gamma. VIX over 50 too....long vol of vol
Click to expand...

I read somewhere that the banks are killing it for 1st quarter earnings... we're gonna see profits splashed across every news station any time.
I think they're trying to focus on re-building confidence and then if things pick up the debts will start to take care of themselves. From a Balance Sheet perspective anyway.
 
of course-you tried dealing bid/offer spreads otc? of course they are killing it.

let's see how they handle a vanilla static vol market. 2H profits will be rubbish.....i will write bank calls all day here.
 
short selling is not the problem-having crap balance sheets is. rate desks are doig well. FX, commodity and equities not so sure....
 
Commodities are having a nightmare because of reduced demand from the BRIC in the wake of all this debt madness. Surely short selling would drive the prices down faster if you have huge funds. Isn't that what Soros done to the pound back in the day?

Wtf is a rate desk?
 
Interest rate have nowhere to go but up, now im not saying that this will happen any time soon (I have no idea) but once rates start increasing I think thats just one factor that will stifle any bull market.
 
you forget the size of the buy side.....think dividends. ie yield.

rate desks-interest rates mate- clue is in the name.
 
My view is that earnings are going to move by a bwedge; the era of conspicuous consumption is over, and won't come back for a lonnggggg tiimmee.
 
you ****ting me?

money markets mate....swaps, futures, FRA's etc. it's a big market, you might like to take a look at it sometime.

short sterling, euribor, eurodollar short end. bund, bobl, schatz, gilt, 2/5/10/30 in UST's long end. and that's just the listed stuff.
 
Oh you mean money market... Bonds and all that sh*te? Okay.
Not too sure about all how interest rates affect those to be honest I only look at the charts...
 
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