Why in the world should TA work ?!

This is a discussion on Why in the world should TA work ?! within the General Trading Chat forums, part of the Reception category; Originally Posted by lolo55 Here's my final conclusion. But first I'd like to thank you all. Really appreciated! The " ...

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Old Jan 11, 2017, 9:22am   #31
barjon's Avatar
Joined May 2003
Originally Posted by lolo55 View Post
Here's my final conclusion. But first I'd like to thank you all. Really appreciated!

The " If it is good to be true, it's probably is" or " it can't be that simple, you moron! " Mentality is the root of all failures, for me at least. Here is why; because everyone must start somewhere, you just can't start big although you must be big to win!. Going lean is the only way to make it. You need to read, learn, ask others, do the math, think but at the end you must only follow your heart, make a hypothesis, a reference or starting point, it doesn't matter how stupid or lacking it is, all what maters is what you believe most. Yes you will fail a lot but you must figure it out at the end. All you need to do is to keep trying, adjust and make modifications when things don't work. but first you must start somewhere and jump with both feet, you just can't know until you try. I keep thinking and thinking and never reached a firm conclusion where is the truth!. If it seems too good to be true, most of the time it is probably is. but there are very few situations where it is not the case , and you can never know which is which until you try, even if you didn't reach from 1st trail you will get some clues that get you closer to the right answers.Trust what you see not what others say or what your mind tell you. If you believe in trend following go and try it, if it didn't work, then find out what is missing and try again maybe the concept is fundamentally flawed, or maybe it require fine adjustment you will know what to do when you are there, but first you have to begin somewhere.
To win in this game you must have an edge, but to find an edge you got to check your big brain at the door and jump! That's pretty much it!
Yes and as you go through all that you are quite likely to discover that the edge you seek is in you and not within your chart patterns.

TA gives you some reason for entering a trade but it's what you do from there that matters more and where your edge develops commensurate with your skill in managing that trade.
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Old Jan 11, 2017, 1:56pm   #32
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Joined Aug 2003
An old and familiar argument. One's edge is "the knowledge you gain through your research and testing that a particular market behavior offers a level of predictability that provides a consistently profitable outcome over time". Trade management, risk assessment, discipline, etc, etc are necessary components, but they do not constitute an edge any more than lucky socks.

Too many (most) beginners believe that all they have to do is be "disciplined" and "focused" and "keep trying" and eventually they will succeed. The fact that their trading plan, if any, leaks like a sieve never enters into the equation.

Jumping in with both feet and hoping for the best is not a recipe for success. But preventing beginning traders from throwing away their money is a near impossibility. Witness nearly all of the journals, here and elsewhere.
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