facebook IPO 18th May Predictions

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Old May 29, 2012, 9:16pm   #181
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Re: facebook IPO 18th May Predictions

61.8b mcap
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Old May 29, 2012, 10:22pm   #182
 
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Re: facebook IPO 18th May Predictions

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Originally Posted by barjon View Post
? You don't believe they made $2billion for 2011 then.
Do you? Numbers don't add up to me. Either price is OT or earnings out of kilter.


1. FB net income is @ $700m

2. Compare that to Google's net income @ $2.7bn

3. Now compare to an existing productive company of my choice Corning Inc with tangible products and glowing future GLW.

Corning Inc net income @ $500m, PE @ 8 and ... + dividends @ 2.3%,


....................................Net Income $bn 0.7 : 2.7 : 0.5
4. Now compare P/E ratios FB:Google:GLW === 63 : 18 : 8



So is it the price or earnings???
A. FB pricing inconsistent to peer ie Google
B. FB price no comparison to regular technology industry player ie Corning


FB GOOGLE GLW
Current P/E Ratio (ttm) 63.1087 17.9767 8.071
Estimated P/E (12/2012) 52.686 13.6204 9.6423
Earnings Per Share (USD) (ttm) 0.46 32.98 1.62
Est. EPS (USD) (12/2012) 0.551 43.528 1.356
Market Cap (M USD) 69,049.08 193,185.22 19,842.52
Dividend Indicated Gross Yield 0 0 2.2945

Spot the white elephant in the room?

I find it difficult to believe people buy this kind of nonsense to be honest.


PS. Sorry guys but tabulation gets removed. I'm sure you can work it out.
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Old May 29, 2012, 10:33pm   #183
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Re: facebook IPO 18th May Predictions

Quote:
Originally Posted by scose-no-doubt View Post
Still even at 15x on 3 billion gives a MCap of 60. Where are we now?
why 60 ?
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Old May 29, 2012, 11:27pm   #184
 
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Re: facebook IPO 18th May Predictions

Quote:
Originally Posted by Atilla View Post
Do you? Numbers don't add up to me. Either price is OT or earnings out of kilter.


1. FB net income is @ $700m

2. Compare that to Google's net income @ $2.7bn

3. Now compare to an existing productive company of my choice Corning Inc with tangible products and glowing future GLW.

Corning Inc net income @ $500m, PE @ 8 and ... + dividends @ 2.3%,


....................................Net Income $bn 0.7 : 2.7 : 0.5
4. Now compare P/E ratios FB:Google:GLW === 63 : 18 : 8



So is it the price or earnings???
A. FB pricing inconsistent to peer ie Google
B. FB price no comparison to regular technology industry player ie Corning


FB GOOGLE GLW
Current P/E Ratio (ttm) 63.1087 17.9767 8.071
Estimated P/E (12/2012) 52.686 13.6204 9.6423
Earnings Per Share (USD) (ttm) 0.46 32.98 1.62
Est. EPS (USD) (12/2012) 0.551 43.528 1.356
Market Cap (M USD) 69,049.08 193,185.22 19,842.52
Dividend Indicated Gross Yield 0 0 2.2945

Spot the white elephant in the room?

I find it difficult to believe people buy this kind of nonsense to be honest.


PS. Sorry guys but tabulation gets removed. I'm sure you can work it out.

I wasn't quarrelling with an unfavourable comparison, merely about needing to see some real earnings. Real earnings they have, coupled with extraordinary cash flow, minimal debt and a 44% year on year increase in quarterly revenues.

They need to keep up such stellar growth to justify the ipo valuation which may be unlikely but not impossible. We need to wait for some audited accounts for some solid figures - at the moment everywhere you look you find a different set.
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Old May 29, 2012, 11:43pm   #185
 
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Re: facebook IPO 18th May Predictions

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Originally Posted by barjon View Post
I wasn't quarrelling with an unfavourable comparison, merely about needing to see some real earnings. Real earnings they have, coupled with extraordinary cash flow, minimal debt and a 44% year on year increase in quarterly revenues.

They need to keep up such stellar growth to justify the ipo valuation which may be unlikely but not impossible. We need to wait for some audited accounts for some solid figures - at the moment everywhere you look you find a different set.

Good point add no track record to that list of strikes against FB compared to established and audited businesses.

Not quarrelling either - just that my point is, all these big investment bankers and so called analysts and as you rightly state no consistent assessment or accurate visibility of the business.

Yes I would dispute their real earnings and cash flow too as we need independent review. Tescos and Utilities have better dependable cash flow imho.


What does all this tell Joe Public about the top investment bankers GS and MS???
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2. 80% of what happens to you can be attributed to 20% of your behaviour

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Last edited by Atilla; May 30, 2012 at 8:17am.
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Old May 29, 2012, 11:50pm   #186
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Re: facebook IPO 18th May Predictions

I would just like to chime in with company's questionable acquisitions such as instagram 1bln, now talk of buying opera.. None of this inspired confidence. It's a bit disgusting and an insight into the contempt wall street holds retail investors with. Facebooks users can and will leave, it's old hat twitter is the new thing but for how long.
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Old May 30, 2012, 12:13am   #187
 
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Re: facebook IPO 18th May Predictions

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Originally Posted by eighteen View Post
I would just like to chime in with company's questionable acquisitions such as instagram 1bln, now talk of buying opera.. None of this inspired confidence. It's a bit disgusting and an insight into the contempt wall street holds retail investors with. Facebooks users can and will leave, it's old hat twitter is the new thing but for how long.
Absolutely - and to me that smacks of desperation. They need to leverage the business model with something that's going to produce 'synergies' (buzz word they like to use) but I'm thinking horizontal & vertical and nothing jumps at me.

What do spotty teenagers want from FB would be the big ask and how much they are prepared to spend out of their pocket monies?


Dunno - games & zit cream??? No offence Eighteen
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Old May 30, 2012, 12:36am   #188
 
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Re: facebook IPO 18th May Predictions

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Originally Posted by tar View Post
why 60 ?
Dunno. 3bn and 15x PE is about as far as unrealistic gets in my book.
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Old May 30, 2012, 9:21am   #189
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Re: facebook IPO 18th May Predictions

Maybe Facebook and LinkedIn could buy each other? The total value of FaceIn or LInkedBook would have to be at least $0 in real terms.
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Old May 31, 2012, 12:13am   #190
 
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Re: facebook IPO 18th May Predictions

Hulbert: Facebook's Stock Should Trade for $13.80 - MarketWatch Video
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2. 80% of what happens to you can be attributed to 20% of your behaviour

Learn to deal with it and remember what goes around comes around...
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