facebook IPO 18th May Predictions

This is a discussion on facebook IPO 18th May Predictions within the General Trading Chat forums, part of the Reception category; Originally Posted by wackypete2 That's why I don't trade this stuff. It's just gambling. It's is beyond my comprehension why ...

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Old May 20, 2012, 4:44am   #121
 
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Re: facebook IPO 18th May Predictions

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Originally Posted by wackypete2 View Post
That's why I don't trade this stuff. It's just gambling. It's is beyond my comprehension why anyone would place orders to buy (or sell) a stock that has not yet traded a single share and no one has any idea of the market's view of a fair value price.

Peter
Well - if it's beyond your comprehension, you shouldn't give people instructions for trading it's first day...
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Old May 20, 2012, 10:33am   #122
Joined Jul 2010
Re: facebook IPO 18th May Predictions

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Originally Posted by Atilla View Post
Just looking at IG Index Insight and Client Sentiment has

82% Long
18% Short

Well there you go... It must be right when they say only 5% of traders make money...


Who would have believed that IG Index's clients would bet on FB being undervalued????


Helloooooooooooo anybody home????
82% long? Are they the punters who bought at $40 and still haven't had their stop-losses hit or run out of margin? Bumper profits for the SBs, I think.
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Old May 21, 2012, 5:09am   #123
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Re: facebook IPO 18th May Predictions

its going to be a brilliant short, for a few reasons,

1. the valuation is absolutely mental, big wall streeters keep spinning off ipo's using words like "Tech" "future" ect to try and justify 100* earnings valuations. if i tried to ipo a manufacturing firm at 100* profits people would look at me like a nutcase, but this is Facebook, (drumroll for the ever present words) so this time its different.. the valuation makes no sense, (i aint gonna give you a better valuation fyi, but i think 6$ a share seems more reasonable, although id still hold out for 3$, even then... the underwriters had to step in to maintain 38$ a share, they are not going to be around even a week from now to prop this share up at all.

2. margin stanley has spent around 2 billion trying to prop the ipo price up according to the rumour mill, estimates vary between 500 million/2 billion on the high end, if the lead underwriter has to go to such extreme undertakings to make sure it seems worth 38$ then it isn't. the fact they even had to says major things about this stock.

3. groupon zynga, just look at those 2 ipo's they suck totally, share price obliterated, can't buck the market, Facebook seems to be heading the same way as those 2, both big overhyped. the people losing out here are the mom and pop investors who get sold this crap from wall st.

4. face books growth is slowing, its profits are inconsistent, if we look at this chart of google trends, we can see the searches for Facebook seem to have peaked, Google Trends: facebook
, in a survey 56% of users said they would not trust Facebook with their bank details ect... so hardly a way to monetize there. the main thing here is though, Facebook may have peaked, a lot of people i know personally are tired of it, (I'm 21) we went from myspace to Facebook, if something better comes along we will go to that, I'm sure of it.. the barriers to entry aren't exactly huge. its lost its cool factor, people don't like to be ipo'd (or get the idea they are a product). The idea of people paying to post is obviously a major turn off for people. also note, we were told that the idea of Facebook being a power brand, everyone is gonna want to own some Facebook, ect. well it turns out, no no they don't. ( or sorry, not enough people to prop up the share price)

5. courtesy of Zerohedge heres some chart porn FaceBook: The Complete Forensic Post-Mortem | ZeroHedge

6. 90% of the FUTURE revenue, they have no idea where they are going to make it from, zuckerbergs acquisitions have been wasteful buying instagram for 1billion? are you serious? even with the best scenarios envisaged 38$ is too much today, not to mention the complete control over the company zuckerberg has, (someone likened him to kim jong un minus nuclear weapons), promoting this edgy idea called the hacker way, its start the current idea circulating is to let users pay to display posts, such as twitter does... this i can't say as an avid user, will be used very much if at all, and further more i can't see it bringing in the revenues that will justify the valuation.

so thats just my quick break down, overvalued, underwriters had to buy stock to keep it above ipo price (big red warning sign that), zynga, group on both died after ipo. Facebook has/is peaking, there is no plan for growth at all certainly not one used to justify the current valuation.
myspace wasn't eternal and Facebook isn't either, happy shorting people.

oh one last thing, id give it a few days before a big short, we have no idea whats gonna happen with the delayed orders ect, so we could get a big spike unexpectedly which aint good, but just looking at it, anything above 41$ seems to encounter heavy selling pressure, if it goes below 37, id probably short then too.
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Old May 21, 2012, 9:25am   #124
Joined Jul 2010
Re: facebook IPO 18th May Predictions

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Originally Posted by eighteen View Post
id give it a few days before a big short, we have no idea whats gonna happen with the delayed orders ect, so we could get a big spike unexpectedly which aint good,
That's the worry.
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Old May 21, 2012, 10:13am   #125
Joined Jul 2005
Re: facebook IPO 18th May Predictions

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Originally Posted by Ross Spur View Post
That's the worry.
Yes, although if I had a delayed order in I'd be cancelling it after Friday's performance.
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Old May 21, 2012, 1:32pm   #126
Joined Apr 2012
Re: facebook IPO 18th May Predictions

quite agree with eighteen above. think a lot of people are not buying its business model or have concerns whether it can extract value to justify its valuation...

but a the same time these IPO stocks can be very volatile and squeeze in your face.

what do you think lads? short it, buy put or sell call?
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Old May 21, 2012, 2:02pm   #127
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Re: facebook IPO 18th May Predictions

Short it on any spikes up and hope the spikes don't get bigger.
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Old May 21, 2012, 2:14pm   #128
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Re: facebook IPO 18th May Predictions

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Originally Posted by Ross Spur View Post
Short it on any spikes up and hope the spikes don't get bigger.
I almost feel a moral responsibility to short facebook..

reason 1)

A recent survey, thought by many to be extremely conservative, indicated that businesses are losing over 230 million hours every month as a result of employees "wasting time" on social networks.
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Old May 21, 2012, 3:39pm   #129
Joined Jul 2010
Re: facebook IPO 18th May Predictions

lol........
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Old May 21, 2012, 3:46pm   #130
Joined Apr 2012
Re: facebook IPO 18th May Predictions

there we go.. down 11%
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