Greek Debt Crisis Simplified

This is a discussion on Greek Debt Crisis Simplified within the General Trading Chat forums, part of the Reception category; Originally Posted by forker One thing I have been struggling to work out is how the euro is holding its ...

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Old Jul 7, 2011, 8:49pm   #33
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Re: Greek Debt Crisis Simplified

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Originally Posted by forker View Post
One thing I have been struggling to work out is how the euro is holding its weight against sterling.
Well everything's relative, right? The euro is a piece-a-crap, but then again, so is Sterling. You know the scary Greek numbers (deficit etc)? Check them against ours, there's not that much difference.

So I put it down to Sterling being garbage rather than the euro being good.
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Old Jul 7, 2011, 8:50pm   #34
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Re: Greek Debt Crisis Simplified

Hey man, long time. How ya' been....
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Old Jul 7, 2011, 9:04pm   #35
 
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Re: Greek Debt Crisis Simplified

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Of course, convergence could also be achieved by going in the other direction too.
As to convergence, you're correct, without a doubt. Convergence is achieved by making richer states poorer and poorer states richer. Again, it's really all about whether you believe the intangible benefits are worth it. For both the convergence argument and for the fringe benefits, I am pretty sure that the one precedent we have, i.e. the US, suggests that it's all worth it in the end. In fact, if you look at American history, it's amazing how many parallels you find. For example, the states did face a very similar situation that the EU is facing now and, funnily enough, as one of the results of the bargain reached the capital of the US is Washington, rather than New York.
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As a corollary to the above, I can’t help feeling a little bemused at the concept of increasing wealth in poorer nation states by giving them money with the intent they buy stuff from the existing manufacturing base of the (relatively wealthy) producer states, when they quite sensibly decide to use their free (cheap is more politically correct, but free is more realistic in inflationary and risk terms) money to enhance their own infrastructure and manufacturing capacity in order to offer significant competition to the same groups they were ‘supposed’ to be buying from.
Well, that would actually be OK, because, as long as you're in the same boat and everyone plays by the rules, there's hope that there's enough pie for everyone to get a slice. It's the whole idea that trade, in general, is good for everyone in the long run and the more of it and the freer it is the better. To be sure, in all this, Greece is a special case, 'cause, quite clearly, they didn't do any of what you describe above.
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Old Jul 7, 2011, 9:06pm   #36
 
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Re: Greek Debt Crisis Simplified

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One thing I have been struggling to work out is how the euro is holding its weight against sterling.
It's just the carry munkies are running the show at the moment. Also, the Chinese have been buying EUR day in, day out, throughout all this.
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Old Jul 7, 2011, 9:08pm   #37
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Hey man, long time. How ya' been....
I am rollin', nearly 25% over the last three weeks alone since I got back from my jollies, and that's discounting the effects of compounding...still, it's only been a few months full time.

Like I said, the urge to over-trade is rising. I took a couple of lucky escapes, really only saved by the fact that I was right on the overall direction.

There might be a lesson in that somewhere...
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Old Jul 7, 2011, 9:08pm   #38
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They've been buying the dips at around $1 Billion per session.
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Old Jul 7, 2011, 9:13pm   #39
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Re: Greek Debt Crisis Simplified

rite, sometimes when I read what people who know their onions say about the world economy, political international relations and stuffs, they say about some old history thing in there argument.

Like that Wiemar book. Or what Martingoul did just then about the US. I'm sure there are lots of other examples all of which escape me. Hugh Hendry does it alot but the only reason I know about him is because he's got a bloody great big gob.

so, like, if you are a hedge fund manager, do you just read history books?
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Old Jul 7, 2011, 9:16pm   #40
 
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It's just the carry munkies are running the show at the moment. Also, the Chinese have been buying EUR day in, day out, throughout all this.
Thats an angle I didn't think about. Its easy to forget about those mountains of money who's owners haven't got debt in their headlines.
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