Currency Trading May 7 - 11

jacinto · May 6, 2007

Interesting week ahead:

Interest rate decisions may or may not end up playing their hand?
UK to raise rates by 25 or 50 basis points, or not at all? Where would the surprise be?

Market ended within the "bigger picture" range, so we cant really talk about reversals yet. Cable printed a rather large Doji on the weekly chart closing within the range, but also printing an outside bar, so in principle: Could we say that there is a bearish bias?

However....... other dollar pairs can be giving hints of overall dollar direction in the coming weeks. Will post charts later.

Edit: Cable has an up channel that appears broken.

Good trading

j

jacinto · May 6, 2007

USDYEN:

This pair has a rather interesting long opportunity and could be a "hint" for possible dollar strength in the coming weeks. see chart. looking for pullbacks to the 120-119.50 areas for swing entries.

USDCHF
pressuring a downtrend. Entry at current levels is an early entry for a long, I will keep an eye on breaks north.

good trading

j

oiltanker · May 7, 2007

as banks are still off loading dollars to buy euros [as the euro tries to become the oil currency] i can't see much change in the long term. any dollar strength might prompt sells and any euro weakness might/will prompt buys [on the dips].

so its looks like a game of where the support and resistance is.

today looks like a quiet morning and will wait for ny to wake up before deciding direction.

JohnG FX · May 7, 2007

JohnG FX said:
Morning all,

Well I'm looking for one more ITD pop up into Sunday/Monday open, ideal target would be 2.0060/70 area although it could well overshoot if the NFP is bad. Then looking to be taking shorts early Monday for the bigger leg down.

Support today at the the .682 and .382 fibs @ 9797 and 9780.

Gone long this morning @ 9865 stop 9778 although also downside protected by the 9880 and 9800 puts.

Of course it's all down to the NFP so I am probably 100% incorrect [/QUOTE

Morning everyone

Well NFP was bad but we didn't get much of a move up (yet ?)

I have to go with my original call, ITD high is due and all my charts are showing negative D and pointing down.

Just covered the 9865 long and reversed short @ 9964 but am prepared to add further up to 2.0060.

Although we could well flatine into the MPC, ECB and FOMC midweek.

brutusdog · May 7, 2007

short eur/jpy. 16323 10pip target.

2be · May 7, 2007

French election result should be EUR positive in a longer term with USD and GBP losing to EUR in its own way, however since January EUR has been gaining on GBP and both EUR and GBP have been gaining on USD. USD weakness might still continue for a long time, as it suits the US economy at the moment. The strength of GBP againts weak USD and at the same time weakness of GBP against EUR might be a warning that GBP is on a journey to get even weaker and the rise in the interest rates is just a natural reaction to slow internal inflation, possibly not having a long time effect on the overall strength of GBP. If there are more then two/three interest raise later on in the year followed by GBP decline, it might finally get the message through that the UK consumes more that it is able to generate. I have used weekly charts to compare the above, so the time frame is a long term one.

trendie · May 7, 2007

any trades today, anyone?

(got up late, so didnt start until about 10am. no real volatility, so null day today for me)

EDIT: turning into a pin-bar to the downside, similar to Apr-25th?
alos a narrow range day, although not sure about significance, as its Monday.

pipper · May 7, 2007

I closed out my short EURUSD position that I was holding since last week earlier today for a profit of 74 pips.

Other than that, no action for me. Things are pretty slow today.

JohnG FX · May 7, 2007

Holding 9964 short, first target 9770 could well take till thursday to get there but content to hold,

Also holding short GBPJPY from 239.34 a longer term trade and targeting a 238 break for 233

jacinto · May 7, 2007

trendie said:
any trades today, anyone?

yep, bought a house today. the only trade today. no screentime for me. will be moving soon to gloucestershire. cheltenham to be precise

j

just saw the charts. looks like a boring day. good i didnt stay. lets see what is there tomorrow.

Doctor Leo · May 7, 2007

Target on cable 19705. May reach even this week.

trendie · May 7, 2007

yesterday, I got myself a copy of Fooled by Randomness, by Nassim Taleb.
guess I know what I will be reading in between trades. (just as soon as I finish "Cosmic Ordering")

how do you spend the "down-time", when you can do nothing except wait?
this is because I trade cable on 30-mins, and all others on 4-hrs.
(or are you monitoring too many pairs to have a break?)

jacinto · May 7, 2007

Doctor Leo said:
Target on cable 19705. May reach even this week.

where do you get that target from Dr Leo? would be interesting to know

j

Priceman · May 7, 2007

jacinto said:
yep, bought a house today. the only trade today. no screentime for me. will be moving soon to gloucestershire. cheltenham to be precise

j

just saw the charts. looks like a boring day. good i didnt stay. lets see what is there tomorrow.

OMG I'm getting married in Cheltenham in October!! Spooky. No real trading for me for ages for various reasons. Good to see new faces posting on here though with fresh input although not many ideas as usual to why they chose their levels and targets. Is this because people don't want to give their 'grail' away or just that they don't want to look silly?

Anyway, good luck all as usual. I'll be watching :cheesy:

JohnG FX · May 7, 2007

Priceman said:
Good to see new faces posting on here though with fresh input although not many ideas as usual to why they chose their levels and targets. Is this because people don't want to give their 'grail' away or just that they don't want to look silly?

Anyway, good luck all as usual. I'll be watching :cheesy:

Attached is an overview of my forecast on cable for the next 2 months and what I will be trading

The Pearl Fisher · May 7, 2007

Hi All.

Hope you’ve all enjoyed the holiday.

Selling USD/JPY tonight at 120.10 (looking for 119.30)

SL at 120.45

First of the week……

TPF

Doctor Leo · May 7, 2007

Target for cable - well, easy, high at 20075, mid-point 19890, and it's already broken. But personally I do not trade such long moves, will see what happens. Though I keep in mind the declining sentiment and this target. That's it.

Doctor Leo · May 7, 2007

The Pearl Fisher said:
Hi All.

Hope you’ve all enjoyed the holiday.

Selling USD/JPY tonight at 120.10 (looking for 119.30)

SL at 120.45

First of the week……

TPF

Nice... I'm having a target at 120.45 exactly

Doctor Leo · May 7, 2007

trendie said:
how do you spend the "down-time", when you can do nothing except wait?

For example, I'm currently working on a very interesting and complex design - an exclusive booklet for an exhibition

jacinto · May 7, 2007

thanks Dr Leo

j

I actually have 9740 as an initial down target.

Currency Trading May 7 - 11

BOE will:

Raise rates by 50 basis points and Cable soar

Raise rates 25 basis and Cable go up

Raise rates 25 basis and Cable range

Raise rates 25 and Cable Tank

Do nothing and Cable range

Do nothing and Cable TANK

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