Profi-forex's Forex Commentary

Forex Commentary 16.08.2004

16.08.2004 (6:30am Us Time).

TODAY`S DATA:

8:30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Index (Aug) PREV. 36.54 FOR. 32.15

8:30 CAD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m (Jun) PREV.-2.6% FOR. -2.0%

13:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index (Jul) PREV. 67 FOR 66

19:50 GBP RICS House Price Survey (Jul) PREV. 17 FOR. 10

USD/JPY(CURRENT LEVEL 110.92) – FRIDAY`S FATAL US DATA WEAKED USD TO 110.40 REGION. TODAY DURING JAPANESE SESION WE TESTED THE NEST MINIMUM AT 110.32 REGION. NOW WE ARE WITNESSES THE CORECTION, WHICH SHOULD GO TO 111.00/40. UNTILL COURSE IS BELOW 112.50 STILL IS A CHANCE FALL BELOW 110.00.

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1.2339) – AS WE EXPECT FRIDAY`S CLOSE ABOVE 1.2350 SUGGEST THAT LONG POSITION WAS REBUILT AT 1.2320 AND THERE SHOULD FIND NEW TRADERS EAGER TO BUY EUR AND IN THIS WEEK WE SHOULD SEE TEST 1.2500 REGION.

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1.2427) – AS WE EXPECT AT FRIDAY 1.2490 REGION WAS BROKEN AND WE REACH MINIMUM AT 1.2380 REGION. AT 1.2470/80 SHOULD FIND NEW TRADARS EAGER TO BUY CHF.

GBP/USD ( CURRENT LEVEL 1.8441) – FRIDAY`S CLOSE ABOVE 1.8340/60 CHNGE NEGATIVE IMAGE OF GBP, AT 1.8340/60 SHOULD APPEAR THE NEXT DEMAND FOR GBP. IN THIS WEEK BULLS SHOULD MANAGE RESISTANCE AT 1.8460 AND THEN WE SHOULD SEE TEST 1.8550 REGION.

Forex Commentary 17.08.2004

17.08.2004 (5:08am US Time)

TODAY`S DATA:

03:15 CHF – PPI m/m (Jul) prev. -0.3% for. 0.2%

05:00 EUR – Industrial Production m/m (Jun) prev. 0.7% for. -0.7%

05:00 DEM – ZEW Survey Econ. Sentiment (Aug) prev. 48.4 for. 48.0

05:00 DEM – ZEW Survey Current Situation (Aug) prev. -69.3 for. -69.0

08:30 USD – CPI m/m (Jul) prev. 0.3% for. 0.2%

08:30 USD – CPI Core m/m (Jul) prev. 0.1% for. 0.2%

08:30 USD – CPI y/y prev. 3.3%

08:30 USD – CPI Core y/y (Jul) prev. 1.9% for. 1.8%

08:30 USD – Housing Starts (Jul) prev. 1.924k for. 1.900k

08:30 USD – Building Permits (Jul) prev. 1.945k for. 1.950k

15:15 USD – Industrial Production m/m (Jul) prev. -0.3% for. 0.5%


USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 110.49) - BULLS FIGHT AT 110.30. IF THIS REGION HOLDS WE SHOULD SEE BOUNCE TO 111.00 OR EVEN 111.40. LATER THIS WEEK WE EXPECT FALL BELOW 110.00.


EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1.2340) – YESTERDAY`S CLOSE ABOVE 1.2350 SUGGEST POSIBILITY TO TEST 1.2500 REGION. STRONG RESISTANCE AT 1.2380/90, SUPPORT AT 1.2315.

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1.2431) – SUPPORT AT 1.2370, RESISTANCE 1.2480 – 1.2500. WE EXPECT TO BREAK ABOVE-MENTIONED SUPPORT LATER THIS WEEK AND FALL TOWARDS 1.2300. WATCH MARKET CAREFULLY.

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1.8373) – RISE TOWARDS 1.8550 AND FALL NEAR 1.8250 IS LIKE 50/50 IN A FEW DAYS. WATCH MARKET CAREFULLY. STAND ASIDE.

Forex Commentary 18.08.2004

18.08.2004 (04:10am US Time)


USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 109.84 ) - SUPPORT AT 110.30 DIDN`T HOLD THATS WHY COURSE FALL BELOW 110.00. THE NEAREST SUPPORT 109.70, WHEN WE BREAK THIS REGION, WE COULD SEE 109.10/45. WEAK BRENET HELP JPY.

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1.2324) – AT THIS MOMENT WE HAVE RANGE: 1.2315 – 1.2385. WE DON`T EXCLUDE TEST 1.2280/1.2300 REGION, BUT ON THE END OF THE WEEK WE SHOULD BREAK 1.2385 REGION.

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1.2452 ) - SUPPORT AT 1.2370, RESISTANCE 1.2480 – 1.2500. WE EXPECT TO BREAK ABOVE-MENTIONED SUPPORT LATER THIS WEEK ABD FALL TOWARDS 1.2300. WATCH MARKET CAREFULLY.


GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1.8273) – GBP TESTED SUPPORT AT 1.8240/60. NOW WE CANNOT EXLUDE FALL TO 1.8220 AND EVEN 1.8180. ONLY RISE ABOVE 1.8405 REGION WILL PERMIT TO RISE TO 1.8450 AND EVEN 1.8550.

Forex Commentary 19.08.2004

19.08.2004 (04:17am US Time)

Today`s data:

04:30 GBP – Retail Sales m/m (Jul) prev. 1.1% for. -0.3%

04:30 GBP – M4 Money Supply m/m (Jul) prev. 0.5% for. 0.5%

04:30 GBP – Public Finances (Jul) prev.. 10.6b for.. -6.6b

08:30 USD – Initial Jobless Claims (Aug) prev. 333k for. 335k

10:00 USD – Leading Indicators (Jul) prev.. -0.2% for. -0.2%

12:00 USD – Philadelphia Fed Factory Survey (Aug) prev. 36.1 for.. 30.5

11:00 – 13:00 – USD – Snow speeks

19:50 JPY – Tertiary Industry Index m/m (Jun) prev. -1.0% for. 0.4%

19:50 JPY – All Industry Activity Index m/m (Jun) prev. -0.7% for. 0.0%


USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 109.56) – YESTERDAY WE TESTED 109.10/45 REGION. NOW WE EXPECT BOUNCE TOWARDS 110.00 MAYBE 110.40 AND THEN WE SHOULD SEE FALL BELOW 109.00.

EURUSD (CURRENT LEVEL 1.2141) - STRONG RESISTANCE AT 1.2395. EUR IS STILL BELOW THIS REGION. IN OUR OPINION TODAY WE COULD TEST AGAIN 1.2280 OR EVEN 1.2260 REGION. AFTER THIS BULLS SHOULD AGAIN ATTACK ABOVE-MENTIONED RESISTANCE.

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1.2345) - STRONG RESISTANCE 1.2505/15, SUPPORT AT 1.2370. CHF SHOULD BE STRONGER TO THE END OF THE WEEK.

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1.8212) - SUPPORT 1.8130/50, RESISTANCE 1.8300/20.

Forex Commentary

20.08.2004 (5.04am US Time)

USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 109.15) – MINIMUM 108.94, SUPPORT NEAR 108.80. HIGH BRENT PRICES COULD HELP USD TO BACK NEAR 110.00 REGION.

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1.2364) – YESTERDAY WE TESTED ONLY 1.2320/30 REGION. FROM THERE WE BACK ABOVE 1.2350. SO IN OUR OPINION WE OPINION WE SHOULD SEE 1.2460/80 REGION.

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1.2422) - STRONG RESISTANCE 1.25/05, SUPPORT AT 1.2370. CHF SHOULD BE STRONGER TO THE EBD OF THE WEEK.

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1.8315) – THE NEAREST SUPPORT 1.8280/90. THE NEAREST RESISTANCE 1.8350).

Forex Commentary 23.08.2004

23.08.2004 (3:08am US Time)

Today`s data:

08:30 CAD – Retail Sales m/m (Jun) prev. 0.5% for. 0.1%

08:30 CAD – Retail Sales Less Autos m/m (Jun) prev. 1.4% for. 0.3%

CAD – BoC Dep Gov Longworth speaks on Monetary Policy

USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 109.27) – SUPPORT AT 108.80 HOLD. TODAY WE EXPECT BOUNCE TO 109.70/110.00 REGION. ONLY BREAK 110.70 REGION WILL CHNGE IMAGE ON THIS MARKET ON POSITIVE FOR USD.

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1.2294) – IN LAST WEEK BULLS DIDN`T BREAK VERY STRONG RESISTANCE AT 1.2395 REGION. AT FRIDAY EUR WEAKED TO 1.2280 REGION. AT THIS REGION SUPPORT HOLDS WHAT COULD SUGGEST POSIBILITY TO TEST ABOVE-MENTIONED RESISTANCE. IF WE BREAK 1.2280 WE COULD SEE FALL TO 1.2250 AND EVEN 1.2200 REGION

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1.2525) – RESISTANCES: 1.2575 AND 1.2650. SUPPORT 1.2480 AND 1.2400.

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1.8165) – SUPPORTS: 1.8120 AND 1.8080. RESISTANCES: 1.8250 AND 1.8350.

Forex Commentary 2408.2004

24.08.2004 (04:04am US Time)

USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 109.79) - STRONG RESISTANCE AT 110.60/80 REGION. SUPPORT 109.30/60. TODAY WE COULD TEST ABOVE-MENTIONED RESISTANCE. BREAK THIS REGION WILL OPEN THE WAY TO RISE ABOVE 111.00 REGION. FALL TOWARDS 109.00 REGION WILL OPEN THE WAY TO TEST 107.00 REGION.

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1.2148) - STRONG BUYING USD WHICH WE COULD SEE AT FRIDAY AND MONDAY PROBABLY DISCONT GOOD DATA FROM USA, WHICH WE WILL KNOW IN THIS WEEK. BREAK SUPPORT AT 1.2180 OPEN THE WAY TO TEST 1.2050 AND EVEN 1.1950 REGION. BROKEN YESTERDAY SUPPORT AT 1.2180/1.2200 REGION IS NOW RESISTANCE. PAY ATTENTION TO FRIDAY`S US DATA.

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1.2692) - THE NEAREST SUPPORT 1.2640. STRONG RESISTANCE 1.2715/25. IF WE BREAK THIS REGION WE SHOULD HAVE POSIBILITY TO RISE TOWARDS 1.2840.

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1.8062) - RESISTANCE 1.8120. AT THIS REGION WE COULD EXPECT NEW SELLERS GBP. WE SHOULD FIND SUPPORT AT 1.7975/1.8020 REGION.

Forex Commentary 25.08.2004

25.08.2004 (03:18am US Time)

Today`s data:

06:30 CHF – KoF Swiss Leading Indicator (Aug) prev. 1.1% for. 1.0%

08:30 CAD – Leading Indicator m/m (Jul) prev. 1.1% for. 0.8%

08:30 USD – Durable Goods Orders (Jul) prev. 0.9% for. 1.0%

08:30 USD – -Less Transportation (Jul) prev. -0.4% for. 1.7%

10:00 USD – New Home Sales (Jul) prev. 1326k for. 1292k

12:30 USD – Fed Duynn Speaks on US Economy

18:45 NZD – Imports (Jul - final) prev. 3.1B

18:45 NZD – Exports (Jul - Preliminary) prev. 2.70B

18:45 NZD – Trade Balance (Jul - Preliminary) prev. -401M

19:50 JPY – Merchandise Trade Balance Total (Jul) prev. Y1147.0B for. Y950.0B

19:50 JPY – Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance Total (Jul) prev. Y942.8B for. Y943.9B


USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 109.57) - YESTERDAY WE WATCHED COSOLIDATION - RANGE: 109.40 - 110.00. NEXT DIRECTION DEPEND ON BREAK THIS RANGE. BUT WE EXPECT MOVE UP TOWARDS 111.00.

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1.2084) - AS WE EXPECT YESTERDAY EUR FOUND SUPORT AT 1.2050/60 REGION. TODAY WE SHOULD SEE BOUNCE TOWARDS 1.2140/60 AND MAYBE EVEN TO 1.2200. DURING US SESION INFLUENCE AT LEVEL COULD HAVE TODAY`S US DATA.

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1.2716) - THE NEAREST RESISTACNCE 1.2780, THE NEAREST SUPPORT 1.2640/60. AT ABOVE-MENTIONED SUPPORT SHOULD FIND NEW BUYERS EUR. LATER THIS WEEK WE SHOULD TEST 1.2780/1.2820 REGION.

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1.7951) -AS WE EXPECT YESTERDAY AT 1.8080/1.8120 FOUND MANY SELLERS GBP. FROM THIS REGION GBP WEAKED BY 200 PIPS BREAKING STRONG SUPPORT AT 1.7975/1.8020. IN THIS MOMENT BROKEN SUPPORT WILL BE THE FIRST SERIOUS RESISTANCE.

Forex Commentary 26.08.2004

26.08.2004 (04:58am US Time)

Today`s data:
04:00 DEM – IFO Ind. Survey Bus. Climate (Aug) prev. 95.6 for. 95.1

08:30 USD – Initial Jobless Caims prev. 331k

10:00 USD – Help Wanted Index (Jul) prev. 38 for. 38

19:50 JPY – Jobless Rate prev. 4.6% for. 4.6%

19:50 JPY – Tokyo CPI y/y (Aug) prev. -0,2% for. -0.1%

19:50 JPY – Worker`s Household Spending y/y (Jul) prev. -3.5%

19:50 JPY – National CPI y/y (Aug) prev. 0.0% for. -0.1%


USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 110.13) - WE HAVE STILL CONSOLIDATION: 109.60 - 110.40. NEXT DIRECTION DEPEND ON TODAY`S JAPANESE DATA AND TOMMOROW`S DATA FROM USA. BREAK ABOVE 110.40 SHOULD PERMIT RISE ABOVE 111.00, BUT BREAK SUPPORT COULD WEAKEN USD TOWARDS 109.00 AND EVEN 108.00 REGION.

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1.2061) - YESTERADY VERY STRONG RESISTANCE WAS 1.2115/25. DURING JAPANESE SESION WE TESTED SUPPORT AT 1.2040/60 FROM WHERE WE HAD BOUNCE TO 1.2080/90. ANOTHER UNSUCCESFUL TEST SUPPORT AT 1.2040/60 COULD CAUSE REALIZATION PROFITS FROM SHORT POSITIONS AND VIOLENT BOUNCE ABOVE MENTIONED RESISTANCE.

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1.2766) - STRONG RESISTANCE 1.2780, SUPPORTS 1.2720 AND 1.2670. ANOTHER UNSUCCESFUL TEST RESISTANCE COULD CAUSE REALIZATION PROFITS FROM LONG POSITIONS AND FORTIFY CHF LATER THIS WEEK.

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1.7943) -SUPPORT AT 1.7880/1.7900 REGION. STRONG RESISTACNCE 1.8015/30 REGION. WATCH MARKET CAREFULLY.

Forex Commentary 27.08.2004

27.08.2004 (04:50am US Time)

Today`s data:

04:30 GBP – GDp Q2 q/q prev. 0.9%

04:30 GBP – GDp Q2 y/y prev. 3.7%

05:30 GBP – GfK Consumer Confidence Survey prev. -3

08:30 USD – GDP Q2 prev. 3.0% for. 2.8%

08:30 USD – GDP Price Deflator Q2 prev. 3.2% for. 3.2%

08:30 USD – Personal Consumption Q2 prev. 1.0% for. 1.3%

09:50 USD – U. of Michigan Confidence prev. 94 for. 94

10:00 USD – Greenspan to Give Opening Remarks At Fed Symposium in Wyoming


USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 109.56) - AFTER JAPANESE DATA AND LOWER OIL PRICES USD/JPY BROKEN SUPPORT AT 109.60 AND TESTED 109.00 REGION. NOW WE HAVE BOUNCE TOWARDS 109.60 AHEAD US DATA AND A.GREENSPAN SPEACH. TECHNICAL: BREAK 109.00 WILL OPEN THE WAY TO FALLS TOWARDS 108.00, BUT BREAK 110.40/60 WILL PUSH THIS PAIR HIGHER EVEN TO 112.50 AGAIN.

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1.2087) - WORST THAN EXPECTED US WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS EUR TESTED AGAIN 1.2115/25 REGION AND NEXT RISIES WAS STOPPED THERE. TODAY MORNING AFTER TRADERS CLOSED THEIR SHORT POSITIONS ABOVE-MENTIONED RESISTANCE WAS TESTED ONE MORE TIME. SUPPORT AT 1.2040/60. WE THINK BEFORE US DATA AND A.GREENSPAN SPEACH WE COULD STAY IN 1.2060/1.2120 RANGE. NEXT DIRECTION DEPEND ON TRADER`S INTERPRETATION TODAY`S INFORMATIONS. IF WE BREAK SUPPORT NEXT TARGET IS 1.1950 BUT IF RESISTANCE WILL BE BRAKE NEXT TARGET IS 1.2180/1.2200 REGION.

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1.2743) - STRONG RESISTANCE 1.2780 AND 1.2840, SUPPORTS 1.2720 AND 1.2690. NEXT DIRECTION DEPEND ON TRADER`S INTERPRETATION TODAY`S INFORMATIONS.

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1.7985) -STRONG SUPPORT 1.7880/1.7900, STRONG RESISTANCE 1.8015/30. WAITING ON DATA FROM UK GBP TESTED ABOVE-MENTIONED RESISTANCE. NEXT DIRECTION DEPEND ON TRADER`S INTERPRETATION TODAY`S INFORMATIONS.

Forex Commentary 30.08.2004

Today`s data (30.08.2004):


08:30 CAD – Industrail Product Price m/m (Jul) prev. -0.5% for. -0.5%

08:30 CAD – Raw Materials Price m/m (Jul) prev. -1.7% for. 0.7%

08:30 CAD – Current Account q2 prev. 9.5B for. 13.3B

08:30 USD – Personal Income (Jul) prev. 0.2% for. 0.5%

08:30 USD – Personal Spending (Jul) prev. -0.7 for. 0.7%

08:30 USD – PCE Deflator y/y (Jul)prev. 2.5% for. 2.4%

08:30 USD – PCE Core y/y (Jul) prev. 1.5% for. 1.6%

09:00 NZD – MBNZ Business Confidence (Aug) prev. -12.9%

18:45 NZD – Building Permits m/m (Jul) prev. 32.4%

19:30 JPY – PMI Manufacturing (Aug)

19:50 JPY – Industrial Production m/m (Jul) prev. -1.3% for. 1.1%

19:50 JPY – Industrial Production y/y (Jul) prev. 8.9% for. 7.3%


WEEKLY REPORT(30.08. - 03.09.2004):

LAST WEEK DECIDEDLY BELONG TO USD. EVERYBODY BUY USD AWAITING TO GOOD DATA FROM USA AND FOR INEXPENSIVE BRENT AND GOLD SAKE. BUT COMING WEEK SHOULD SHOW HOW STRONG USD REALY IS, BECAUSE INFLUENCE ON COURSE WOULD HAVE FOLLOWING ELEMENTS :

- STARTING REPUBLICANS CONVENTION IN NEW YORK CITY, WHICH INCREASE WORRIES ABOUT TERRORISM ATTACKS IN THIS TOWN. IT COULD TO CAUSE RISES BRENT AND GOLD PRICES, WHAT COULD HAVE NEGATIVE INFLUENCE ON USD;

- ENDING WEEK AND WITH THIS GOING TRADERS INTENTION TO BOOK PROFITS FROM LONG POSITION ON USD + NEAR STOPLOSS;

- FRIDAY`S MONTHLY NFP. FORECAST RISE FROM 32 THOUSANDS TO 150 - 160 THOUSANDS . NOW WE COULD HEAR SPECULATIONS ABOUT LOWER VALUE THAN PROSPECTIVE;

- TECHNICAL STRONG OVERBOUGHT USD MARKET AND COURSE WITH OTHERS CURRENCIES IS AT VERY IMPORTANT SUPPORTS AND RESISTANCES;

- REMEMBER IN SUBCONSIOUS ABOUT 11 SEPTEMBER.

Forex Commentary 31.08.2004

Today`s data (31.08.2004):


04:30 GBP – M4 Money Supply m/m (Jul) prev. 0.5%

04:30 GBP – M4 Money Supply y/y (Jul) prev. 7.8%

04:30 GBP – M4 Streling Lending (Jul) prev. 11.2B

04:30 GBP – Net Consumer Credit (Jul) prev. 2.1B for. 1.7B

04:30 GBP – Net Lending on Dwellings (Jul) prev. 9.2B for. 9.2B

04:30 GBP – M0 Money Supply m/m (Aug)prev. 0.2%

04:30 GBP – M0 Money Supply y/y (Aug) prev. 5.6% for. 5.3%

05:00 EUR – Euro-zone CPI Estimate y/y (Aug) prev. 2.3% for. 2.4%

06:00 GBP – CBI Distributive Trades

07:30 CAD – GDP y/y prev. 2.4% for. 4.5%

08:30 CAD – GDP m/m (Jun) prev. 0.3% for. 0.4%

10:00 USD – Chicago PMI (Aug) prev. 64.7 for. 60

10:00 USD – Consumer Confidence prev. 106.1 for. 103



31.08.2004 (03:35 US Time)


USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 109.88) -COURSE STILL IN RANGE: 109.00 - 110.40. DURING JAPANESE SESSION AFTER WORST THAN EXPECTED DATA FROM JAPAN WE TESTED 110.20 AND NEXT TO HOURS WE TESTED 109.50REGION BREAKING THROUGH 50MA 109.66. NOW WE HAVE BOUNCE TO 109.80/110.00, AFTER THIS WE EXPECT FALL TOWARDS 109.30 AND EVEN 109.00. FRIDAYS DATA FROM US SHOULD CHANGE IMAGE ON THIS MARKET.

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1.2073) - NOW WE HAVE BACK TO BROKEN 100MA AT 1.2123 REGION. FIRST RESISTANCE IS AT 1.2080/90. WE EXPECT AGAIN TEST LAST MIN. AND NEXT DIRESTION ON EUR/USD MARKET DEPEND ON HOLDING 1.1950 1.2000 REGIONS. STRONG INFLUENCE ON COURSE WOULD HAVE DATA FROM USA..


USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1.2766) - ON THE END OF JAPANESE SESION WE BROKE SUPPORT AT 1.2785REGION WHAT COULD SUGGEST FALLS TOWARDS 1.2700.


GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1.7930) - STRONG RESISTANCE AT 1.8000, SUPPORT - 1.7840/50. WATCH MARKET CAREFULLY.

Forex Commentary 01.09.2004

Today`s data (01.09.2004):


04:30 GBP – CIPS PMI Manufacturing for. 56

05:00 CHF – PMI prev. 55.5

05:00 EUR – Euro-zone Uemployment Rate prev. 9.0%

10:00 USD – Construction Spending prev. -0.3% for. 0.4%

10:00 USD – ISM Manufacturing prev. 62 for. 60

10:00 USD – ISM Prices Paid prev. 77 for. 78



01.09.2004 (04:43 US Time)


USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 109.32) - AS WE EXPECT YESTERDAY WE TESTED 109.00 REGION. WITH THIS HELP US INEXPENSIVE BRENT AND REPORT BOJ ABOUT NO INTERVENTION ON FOREX MARKET IN AUGUST AND ALSO WORST THAN EXPECTED US DATA. MINIMUM WAS AT 108.75 REGION. NOW WE HAVE CORECTION AND BACK TOWARDS BROKEN SUPPORT AT 109.50/66. AT THIS LEVEL WE SHOULD STAY UNTILL TODAY`S US DATA.


EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1.2166) - AFTER WORST THAN EXPECTED US DATA WE BROKE RESISTANCE AT 1.2123 AND 1.2170 AND TESTED 1.2200 REGION. NOW WE COULD SEE BACK TOWARDS BROKEN RESISTANCES AND IF TODAY`S AFTERNOON DATA WILL BE JUST LIKE EXPECTED OR WORST WE SHOULD BREAK 1.2200 REGION.


USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1.2651) - ON AS WE EXPECT YESTERDAY BREAKING SUPPORT AT 1.2785 CAUSE FALLS TOWARDS 1.2700 AND AFTED US DATA WE BROKE NEXT SUPPORT AT 1.2690 REGION. NOW WE HAVE BOUNCE TO 1.2700 AND THIS REGION SHOULD BE USED TO TAKE SHORT POSITION ON USD.


GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1.7949) - WE STILL HAVE RANGE: 1.7840/50 - 1.8000/30. iF WE BREAK SUPPORT WE SHOULD SEE FALLS TO 1.7500 REGION BUT BREAKING RESISTANCE WILL OPEN THE WAY TO RISE TOWARDS 1.8080 AND EVEN 1.8130.

Forex Commentary 02.09.2004

Today`s data (02.09.2004):


03:55 DEM – Unemployment Change prev. 11.0k przewid. 10k

03:55 DEM – Unemployment Rate EU Def prev. 9.9% for. 9.9%

03:55 DEM – Unemployment Rate prev. 10.6% for. 10.6%

03:55 DEM – Employment Change prev. -10k for. -10k

04:30 GBP – CIPS PMI Constructions

05:00 EUR – Euro-Zone PPI m/m prev. 0.0% for. 0.4%

05:00 EUR – Euro-Zone PPI y/y prev. 2.4% for. 2.8%

07:45 EUR – ECB Interest Rate Announcement prev. 2.0%

08:30 USD – Non - Farm Productivity Q2 prev. 2.9% for. 2.8%

08:30 USD – Unit Labor Costs Q2 prev. 1.9%% for. 2.0%

08:30 USD – Initial Jobless Claims prev. 331k

10:00 USD – Factory Orders prev. 0.7% for. 1.0%



02.09.2004 (02:31 US Time)


USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 109.48) - REGION 109.00 HOLD, EHICH SHOULD BE TODAY TEST ONES MORE. VERY STRONG RESISTANCE FOR BULLS SHOULD BE 109.75 REGION, THERE SHOULD FIND NEW SELLERS USD. IT LOOKS LIKE BREAKINGTHROUGH SUPPORT AND FALL TOWARDS 108.30 IS ONLY MATTER OF TIME.


EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1.2176) - THE BEARS TRIED YESTERDAY HOLD RESISTANCE AT 1.2200 REGION HELPED THEM EXPIRED YESTERDAY OPTIONS. BUT ANNOUCEMENT ABOUT EVACUATION WORKERS FROM ONE OF WASHINGTON OFFICE LET AT TEST FOR A MOMENT 1.2215/20 REGION. SUPPORT AT 1.2150. THE NEAREST TARGET - 1.2230/70.


USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1.2615) - AFTER ANNOUCEMENT ABOUT EVACUATION IN WASHINGTON THIS PAIR TESTED 1.2550/70. THE NEAREST RESISTANCES 1.2670, 1.2735/40. .


GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1.7920) - WE STILL HAVE RANGE: 1.7840/50 - 1.8000/30. iF WE BREAK SUPPORT WE SHOULD SEE FALLS TO 1.7500 REGION BUT BREAKING RESISTANCE WILL OPEN THE WAY TO RISE TOWARDS 1.8080 AND EVEN 1.8130.

Forex Commentary 06.09.2004

Today`s data (06.09.2004):


US MARKET IS CLOSE TODAY

05:30 GBP – NTC, Deloitte & REC Report of Jobs

06:00 DEM – German BBK Factory Orders m/m prev. -3.4% for. 1.5%

06:00 DEM – German BBK Factory Orders y/y prev. 4.2% for. 5.7%

13:00 GBP – BRC Retail Sales Monitor prev. 1.8% for. 2.0%

19:50 JPY – Official Reserve Assets prev. $819.2B



06.09.2004 (03:15am US TIME)


AT FRIDAY USD CONSIDERABLY FORTIFY TO MOST CURRENCIES AFTER US DATA (NFP). NUMBER 144K WAS ALMOST LIKE WAS EXPECTED WHAT HELPED USD. ADDITIONALLY NUMBER CAUSED THAT TRADERS EXPECT NEXT RISE RATE BY FED. ONLY CAD AND NZD LEAN MORE REDUCTION OF PRICES WHAT DEPEND ON RISE THERE RATE IN THIS WEEK. ON MONDAY WE COULD BE WITNESSES VERY QUEIT DAY BECAUSE OF HOLIDAY IN USA, DURING EUROPEAN SESSION WE EXPECT A LITTLE BOUNCE.
FROM THUSDAY MARKET COULD START DISCONT WEDNESDAY`S BEIGE BOOK.

EUR/USD

TECHNICAL MARKET STILL STAY WITHOUT RESUTLS. THE NEAREST SUPPORT AT 1.1950/80 REGION, WHICH LATELY THREE TIMES RESTAIN PRESSURE BELIVERS USD,BREAKINGTHROUGH THIS VERY STRONG SUPPORT COULD OPEN THE WAY TO 1.1500 WITH EARLIER SUPPORT AT 1.1750/ 1.1800 REGION.

AND FROM THE OTHER SITE STRONG RESISTANCE IS 1.2195 AND NEXT 1.2350/95. ONLY BREAKING ABOVE 1.2500 COULD OPEN THE WAY TO ATTACK NEW TOPS.

Forex Commentary 07.09.2004

Today`s data (07.09.2004):

JPY

01:00am – Leading Economic Index prev. 60.0% for. 66.7%

01:00am – Coincident Index prev. 88.9% for. 77.8%

07:50pm – Money Suply yy prev. 1.9% for. 1.9%

CHF

01:45am – Unemployment Rate prev. 3.6% for. 3.6%

01:45am – Unemployment Rate s.a prev. 3.9% for. 3.9%

GBP

04:30am – Industrial Production m/m prev. -0.3% for. 0.4%

04:30am – Industrial Production y/y prev. 0.5% for. 0.5%

04:30am – Manufacturing Production prev. -0.7% for. 0.5%

08:30am – NIESR GDP Estimate prev. 0.9%

EUR

05:00am – Euro-zone GDP s.a. q/q prev. 0.6% for. 0.5%

05:00am – Euro-zone GDP s.a. y/y prev. 1.3% for. 2.0%

05:00am – EC Publishes Q3 & Q4 GDP Forecasts

DEM

06:00am – Industrial Production m/m prev. -1.4% for. 0.9%

06:00am –Industrial Production y/y prev. 2.7% for. 1.5%

CAD

08:30am – Building Permits m/m prev. 27.1%

10:00am – Ivey Purchasing Managers Index prev. 51 for. 55

USD

01:00pm – Fed McTeer Speaks on Outlook for Economy

AUD

07:30pm – RBA Monetary Policy Announcement poprz. 5.25% przewid. 5.25%



07.09.2004 (02:22am US TIME)


USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 109.75) - SUPPORT 109.75, IF THIS REGION HOLD, THIS SHOULD LET US RISE TOWARDS 111.00 REGION.

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1.2082) - RESISTANCE 1.2085/1.2110, SUPPORT 1.2040. BECAUSE OF HOLIDAYS IN USA YESTERDAY IS PRACTICAL WITHOUT HISTORY. MARKET WAIT FOR GREENSPAN SPEACH.

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1.2683) - SUPPORT AT 1.2660, RESISTANCE AT 1.2735. WE SHUOLD BREAK ABOVE-MENTIONED RESISTACNE TO HAVE POSIBILITY TO RISE ON THIS PAIR.

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1.7836) - COURSE BELOW 1.7850 REGION WHAT CONFIRM SELL SIGNAL. THE NEAREST STRONG RESISTANCE IS AT 1.7930 REGION. COURSE SHOULD GO TOWARDS 1.7500 REGION.

Forex Commentary 09.09.2004

Today`s data: (09.09.2004)

JPY

02:00am – Machinery Orders m/m prev. -2.2% for. 3.9%

02:00am – Machinery Orders prev. 10.4% for. 10.4%

03:00am – Machine Tools Orders prev. 43.9%

07:50pm – GDP q/q prev. 1.1% for. 0.6%

07:50pm – GDP y/y prev. 1.7% for. 1.9%

07:50pm – Domestic Consumer Goods Price Index m/m prev. 0.4% for. 0.2%

07:50pm – Export Price Index m/m prev. 0.6%

07:50pm – Import Price Index m/m prev. 0.0%

DEM

03:00am – German CPI m/m prev. 0.3%

03:00am – German CPI – EU Harmonised m/m prev. 0.4%

03:00am – German CPI y/y prev. 1.8%

03:00am – German CPI – EU Harmonised y/y prev. 2.0%

03:00am – German Trade Balance prev. E14.7B for. E15.0B

03:00am – German Current Account Balance prev. E8.2B for. E6.0B

EUR

04:00am – ECB to Release September Monthly Report

GBP

04:30am – Visible Trade Balance GBP/Mn prev. -4973M for. -4800M

04:30am – Trade Balance Non EU25 GBP/Mn prev. -2640M for. -2400M

07:00am – Bank of England Monetary Policy Announcement prev. 4.75% for. 4.75%

CAD

08:15am – Housing Starts prev. 218.7K for. 226.5K

08:30am – Capality Utylization Rate (Q2) prev. 83.5% for. 84.3%

08:30am – New Housing Price Index m/m prev. 0.7% for. 0.5%

USD

08:30am – Import Price Index m/m prev. 0.2% for. 0.6%

08:30am – Initial Jobless Claims prev. 362K for. 346K

10:00am – Wholesale Inventories prev. 1.1% for. 0.6%

08:00pm – Fed Yellen Speaks on Economy Outlook

NZD

06:45pm – Terms of Trade Index q/q prev. 2.1%



07.09.2004 (04:06am US TIME)


USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 109.65) - MARKET COULDN`T BREAK 110,20 NEITHER FALL BELOW 109,00 WHAT COULD SUGGEST THAT WE SHOULD HAVE RANGE 109,00 - 110,00.

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1.2086) - YESTERDAY`S GREENSPAN SPEACH (INVESTORS DIDN`T HEAR NOTHING NEW) CAUSE THAT INVESTORS RESOLVE HOLD SUPPORT AT 1,2000. REALIZED PROFITS + STOP ORDERS BROKE RESISTANCES AT 1,2075 AND 1,2125 WINDING UPCOURSE TOWARDS THE MOST SERIOUS RESISTANCE AT 1,2195. yESTERDAY`S CLOSE ABOVE 1,2140 COULD SUGGST COUNTINUATION RISES TOWARDS 1,2300.

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1.2622) - YESTERDAY`S RISES TOWARDS 1,2785 WAS FALSE BUY SIGNAL. AFTER GREENSPAN SPEACH WE SAW BIG USD SELL OFF AND IN A FEW MINUTES USD FALL BY ABOUT 200 PIPS. TODAY WE SHOULD BE WITNESSES TEST 1,2500 REGION.

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1.7865) - DISSAPOINTED GREENSPAN SPEACH CAUSE FORTIFY GBP BY ABOUT 200 PIPS. IF GBP/USD WILL BREAK 1,8040 WE COULD TALK ABOUT STRONG GBP.

Forex Commentary 10.09.2004

Today`s data: (10.09.2004)

CHF

01:45am – GDP q/q prev. 0.4% for. 0.5%

01:45am – GDP y/y prev. 1.5% for. 2.0%

JPY

02:00am – Consumer Confidence prev. 48.7 for. 48

02:00am– Bank of Japan Monthly Report

DEM

03:00am – German Current Account Balance prev. E8.2B for. E6.0B

EUR

06:00am – Euro-Zone OECD Leading Indicator prev. 106.3

CAD

08:15am – Housing Starts prev. 218.7K for. 226.5K

08:30am – Capality Utylization Rate (Q2) prev. 83.5% for. 84.3%

08:30am – New Housing Price Index m/m prev. 0.7% for. 0.5%

USD

08:30am – Producer Price Index m/m prev. 0.1% for. 0.2%

08:30am – PPI EX Food and Energy m/m prev. 0.1% for. 0.1%

08:30am – PPI EX Food and Energy y/y prev. 1.7% for. 1.8%

08:30am – Producer Price Index y/y prev. 4.0% for. 3.6%

08:30am – Trade Balance prev. -$55.8B for. - $51.5B

09:30am – Fed McTeer Speaks in Dallas

10:30am – Fed Pianatlo Speaks on Economy



10.09.2004 (02:21am US TIME)


USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 110,01) - WEAKER THAN EXPECTED JAPANESE DATA AND YESTERDAY`S ROSE BRENT PRICES CAUSED THAT NOW WE ARE TESTING 110,00 REGION. TODAY WE EXPECT ON US DATA (TRADE BALANCE) AND PROBABLY ON THIS DATA DEPEND NEXT DIRECTION.

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2229) - ALL DAY WE HAD RANGE 1,2160 - 1,2200. THE END OF THE DAY WAS VERY INTERSTING. WE BROKEN RESISTANCE AT 1,2215 AND TESTED 1,2240. IN THE END OF JAPANESE SESSION WE REACHED MAX ON 1,2255 REGION. THIS BEHAVIOUR THE MARKET MIGHT SUGGEST ATTACK 1,2400 REGION AND BREAKING COSOLIDATION 1,1990 - 1,2390 AT THE TOP. POSSIBLE WORST DATA FROM USA AND TOMMOROW`S ANNIVERSARY WTC ATTEMPT COULD HELP IN THIS.

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2600) - MARKET SHOULD STAY IN RANGE: 1,2500 - 1,2640. NEXT DIRECTION DEPEND ON TODAY`S US DATA.

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,7883) - HOLDING SUPPORT AT 1,7840 MIGHT SUUGGEST POSIBILITY TO RISE TOWARDS 1,7990/1,8040 REGION.

Forex Commentary 13.09.2004

Today`s data: (13.09.2004)

DEM

02:00am – Wholesales Price Index m/m prev. 0.2% for. 0.3%

02:00am – Wholesales Price Index y/y prev. 3.9% for. 3.9%

GBP

04:30am – PPI Input m/m prev. 0.6% for. 1.2%

04:30am – PPI Input y/y prev. 3.0% for. 3.4%

04:30am – PPI Output m/m prev. 0.1% for. 0.3%

04:30am – PPI Output y/y prev. 2.5% for. 2.6%

04:30am – PPI Output (ex. FBTP) y/y prev. 1.6% for. 1.6%

04:30am – ODPM UK House Prices y/y prev. 13.9% for. 14.0%

CAD

08:30am – Labor Productivity q/q prev. 0.4% for. 0.6%

USD

02pm:00 – Monthly Budget Statement prev. -$76B for. -$40B



13.09.2004 (04:25am US TIME)


USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 110,01) - WE STILL HAVE RANGE: 109,00 - 110,20/40. ONES MORE BULLS HOLD 109,00 REGION WHAT GIVE WEIGHT TO THIS REGION. CLOSE TODAY BELOW THIS REGION WILL BE STRONG SELL SIGNAL.

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2263) - THE NEAREST RESISTANCE AT 1,2330/40, BREAKINGTHROUGH THIS REGION WILL OPEN THE WAY TO RISE TOWARDS 1,2450. THE NEAREST SUPPORT 1,2200/1,2195. BUT FIRST WE COULD SEE FALL TO 1,2160 AND EVEN 1,2100, WHERE BULLS WOULD WANT HOLD THIS REGION. IT SEEMS LIKE FED DECISION ABOUT RISE RATE MIGHT BE IN PRICES NOW, INFLUENCE ON COURSE WOULD HAVE DATA PUBLSHED LATE THIS WEEK TOO.

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2567) - IN A FEW DAYS WE SHOULD STAY IN RANGE: 1,2520 - 1,2680. NEXT DIRECTION DEPEND ON US DATA AND SWISS BANK DECISION ABOUT RISE RATE.

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,7960) - GBP TESTED ON FRIDAY VERY IMPORTANT RESISTANCE AT 1,8030/40 REGION. FROM THIS REGION WE COULD BE WITNESSES CORRECTION TOWARDS 1,7900 BEFORE NEXT TEST ATTACK ABOVE-MENTIONED RESISTANCE. BREAKINGTHROUG THIS REGION WILL OPEN THE WAY TO RISE TOWARDS 1,8080 - 1,8140, THE MOST IMPORTANT IN MIDDLE TERM.

Forex Commentary 16.09.2004

TODAY DATA: (16.09.2004)

JPY

2:00am - Leading Economic Index prev. 66.7%

2:00am - Coincident Index prev. 77.8%

GBP

08:30am - Retail Sales m/m prev. -0.4% for. -0.3%

08:30am - Retail Sales y/y prev. 6.6% for. 5.7%

EUR

05:00am - EuroZone CPI m/m prev. -0.2% for. 0.2%

05:00am - EuroZone CPI y/y prev. 2.3% for. 2.3%

CHF

08:00am - Swiss National Bank Reports Monetary Policy Assessment prev. 0.5% for. 0.75%

USD

08:30am - Consumer Price Index m/m prev. -0.1% for. 0.2%

08:30am - CPI Ex Food & Energy m/m prev. 0.1% for. 0.2%

08:30am - CPI Ex Food & Energy y/y prev. 1.8% for. 1.8%

08:30am - Consumer Price Index y/y prev. 3.0% for. 2.8%

08:30am - Initial Jobless Claims prev. 319k for. 348k

09:00am - US Treasury International Capital Flow Data

12:00am - Philadelphia FED Survey prev. 28.5 for. 25

01:00pm - US Fed Gramlich Speaks On Oil and Monetary Policy


15.09.2004 (06:07am US TIME)


USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 109,57) - WE STILL HAVE RANGE: 109,00 - 110,20/40. ONES MORE BULLS HOLD 109,00 REGION WHAT GIVE WEIGHT TO THIS REGION. CLOSE TODAY BELOW THIS REGION WILL BE STRONG SELL SIGNAL.

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2236) - DESPITE YESTERADAY`S VERY WEAK US DATA BULLS DON`T BREAK DURABLE 1,2300 REGION, THATS WHY WE DON`T EXCLUDE FALL TOWARDS 1,2100 REGION WHAT COULD BE CONNECED WITH SHOPPING USD AHEAD FED IN NEXT WEEK. THE NEAREST SUPPORT 1,2225 AND NEXT 1,2160/70.

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2597) - IN A FEW DAYS WE SHOULD STAY IN RANGE: 1,2520 - 1,2680. NEXT DIRECTION DEPEND ON US DATA AND SWISS BANK DECISION ABOUT RISE RATE (ON THURSDAY)

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,7868) - YESTERDAY FALSE BOUNCE ABOVE 1,8020 CAUSED THAT TRADERS MASS CLOSING LONG POSIOTIONS ON THIS PAIR. TODAY WE DON`T EXCLUDE TEST 1,7780 REGION, BREAKINGTHROUGH WILL OPEN THE WAY TO NEXT FALLS EVEN TOWARDS 1,7550 REGION.