Tips for 5 min betting ?

This is a discussion on Tips for 5 min betting ? within the Fixed Odds & Binary Betting forums, part of the Markets category; Originally Posted by Splitlink 5 minute trading is random. You are at the mercy of the next big trade that ...

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Old Apr 23, 2008, 9:20am   #8
 
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Originally Posted by Splitlink View Post
5 minute trading is random. You are at the mercy of the next big trade that comes along and you don't know whether that trade will be a buy or sell. In addition, the marketmakers will be, constantly, trying to take out stops.The spikes will be a factor, as well.

5 minute traders with close stops are on a hiding to nowhere. The mm's love them, they are the bread and butter.

The problem is that there are a lot of sprats trying to make money in the markets. How do they do that? They go to intraday trading and put close stops on the trades. The bigger traders go for the longer term and have stops farther away. The marketmakers are in the market for the easiest pickings---pure business.

There are arguments against the spreadbetting companies and for the direct trading ones.

Get wise! There is no difference. The firms are not the gamblers, the majority of traders are, and it makes no difference where they go, they will lose their money unless very close attention is paid to probabilities. Bar size is extremely important when placing stops. Anyone placing a stop withing the average, recent, bar length is almost certain to get stopped.

Split
In which case, why not trade that bar. Given one is almost certain to get stopped there, you will be almost certain to make a profit.
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Old Apr 23, 2008, 9:46am   #9
 
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I've gotta say I'm with fxscalper on this one split.

The sub 1 hour world is not random. It is noisy. It is manipulable. And the longer moves perceived in this world are created by something at a larger level.

But who cares.

The trick is that to achieve the things you describe the "big boys" are obliged to follow patterns that repeat. So you study. And you build an understanding. And you figure out how some days are different to others and if there is a way of taking advantage of this.

Then you sit quietly, like a wild cat, and when the market sets up you watch for the "big boys" to do their thing. And you jump, and hang on, and feed from their actions even though you're too small to do it yourself. Too small for them to even notice you. You're not at the mercy of the "next big trade" - it's effects and the actions needed to fill it are your bread and butter.

My world is sub-5 minute but I still only take 3 trades per day from each contract I trade; I wait a lot. The sub-hour world can be a lot of fun and very profitable.

But you do need good execution with timely information, no extra distortions, and the minimum cost. Which eliminates the spreadbetting companies.
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Old Apr 23, 2008, 11:00am   #10
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Originally Posted by FXSCALPER2 View Post
In which case, why not trade that bar. Given one is almost certain to get stopped there, you will be almost certain to make a profit.
Why not? I've been doing it, this morning on Footsie and am 18 points up. Nevertheless, it's not certain that stops and buying orders will make much difference. There is luck in this and a lot of random behaviour. I can , just as well be down by lunchtime.

Actually, Stevespray (hope I've got it right) put this forward a few months ago but it didn't go down too well. Newbies are sold on the breakout idea. It works---sometimes---
but you must keep an eye on the stops, in case, but the scalpers and marketmakers do push the price up and down before the breakout happens, making lots of money for themselves. This is all short timeframe stuff and dangerous for beginners.Beware of average crossovers, too, which is the same trap. The crossover lovers are normally getting into the market too late.
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Old Apr 23, 2008, 11:17am   #11
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Originally Posted by nine View Post
I've gotta say I'm with fxscalper on this one split.

The sub 1 hour world is not random. It is noisy. It is manipulable. And the longer moves perceived in this world are created by something at a larger level.

But who cares.

The trick is that to achieve the things you describe the "big boys" are obliged to follow patterns that repeat. So you study. And you build an understanding. And you figure out how some days are different to others and if there is a way of taking advantage of this.

Then you sit quietly, like a wild cat, and when the market sets up you watch for the "big boys" to do their thing. And you jump, and hang on, and feed from their actions even though you're too small to do it yourself. Too small for them to even notice you. You're not at the mercy of the "next big trade" - it's effects and the actions needed to fill it are your bread and butter.

My world is sub-5 minute but I still only take 3 trades per day from each contract I trade; I wait a lot. The sub-hour world can be a lot of fun and very profitable.

But you do need good execution with timely information, no extra distortions, and the minimum cost. Which eliminates the spreadbetting companies.
Noise, whichever way you look at it, is randomness. I trade 5' TF, too, but I have an idea on which way the trend is on the longer timeframe and I accept the fact that that 5' is unpredictable. I just keep my stops close, but manual. Which means no leaving the computer! This morning, for instance, I am a short trader.

I like your use of metaphores. Some wildcat, I would make

No comment on spreadbetting----

Split
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Old Apr 23, 2008, 2:26pm   #12
 
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No its not random. I am being pedantic in rejecting the word. The reason I take this view is that it looks random when you don't understand it or are misperceiving it on the day but it is is not random.

It's purposive movement to a price point or region (and thus not random). It's noisy, I think, because it needs to be: there is more opportunity to fill in the jitter, those who don't see what's happening take the wrong side, the noise disguises the actual signal.
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Old Apr 23, 2008, 3:43pm   #13
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Wow, I remember I did 1 minute trades made 2k in one day from a basic £100 but from then on I never did as well, TBH I was seeing how quickly you could sum up the markets when you knew a rise was coming you would long then quickly run a short and back to a long rather fun. Stop loss's where no greater than 20 pips.
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Old May 20, 2008, 9:27am   #14
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Originally Posted by tar View Post
Any Tips for 5 mintues betting ( choice odds ) ?
try betonmarkets.com, go for the flash up/down bets. you can choose between 1 to 5 min
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