## Predict the market with 90% accuracy

This is a discussion on Predict the market with 90% accuracy within the First Steps forums, part of the Reception category; Maybe all of you already know this that where is a way to predict the market with 90% accuracy. Because ...

 Sep 19, 2005, 3:33pm #1 Joined Sep 2005 Predict the market with 90% accuracy Maybe all of you already know this that where is a way to predict the market with 90% accuracy. Because that is what W.D. Gann accomplished. If he has done it and continually for several years (got 1800% pa on average for several yeas) it means that there is a way to predict the market. Doesn’t it really hurt you to know that there really is a way to predict the market with 90% accuracy if one just has the knowledge?
 Sep 19, 2005, 6:54pm #2 Joined Jan 2003 There are those who can correctly predict the market direction 90% of the time but still lose money. This is because the issue is not one of prediction but how much profit you make when correct compared to how much you lose when incorrect. For example if you make \$10 profit on 9 of your trades but then lose \$100 on your tenth trade your net position is a loss. Paul
Sep 19, 2005, 7:12pm   #3
Joined Sep 2005
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Trader333 There are those who can correctly predict the market direction 90% of the time but still lose money. This is because the issue is not one of prediction but how much profit you make when correct compared to how much you lose when incorrect. For example if you make \$10 profit on 9 of your trades but then lose \$100 on your tenth trade your net position is a loss. Paul

Well, he did get 1800% in retun on average, which sugessts that the returns on the winners were much higher than the losers.

And since he could predict the market so accurately and also got 1800 pa, I assume that the losers only deviated by a small amount from his orignal predicitons and that the losses as a result were very small and far compensated by the winners volume of profit.

Having a 90% market prediction dosnt just mean a 90% rate of winners and a 10% rate of losers,but also a grasp sense of how much profit one will earn for every trade(90 percent accurateness that the profit will be x amount for instance). The Pa he got speaks for it self though.

 Sep 19, 2005, 8:15pm #4 Joined Dec 2001 So is there proof that Gann was that good or is it just something that was made up to sell some of the vast amount of trading materials he seems to have produced? I have read all sorts of allegations about him, from being a great trader, to being unable to trade and only able to teach. The truth might be somewhere in the middle but it is hard to believe he was that good when he didn't seem to be that wealthy. As his "Great Master Course" sold for US\$5,000 in 1954, around the average price of a house, I would have thought that if he could also trade so well, he would be the richest person around at that time. Perhaps he just knew how to spend it
 Sep 19, 2005, 8:57pm #5 Joined Apr 2004 I agree with what has been said here, as i move from a newbie trader status into a more accomplished trader status i am learning more and more about the value of money management, 80% or 90% accuracy really doesnt mean anything unless you know when to let your winners run. I find letting winners run far harder than cutting losses, a good scalper will have about a 90% accuracy strike rate but the risk reward is very often unprofitable, i think this is why a lot of newbies look for information on scalping drawn by the attraction of how easy it is to get a couple of points at a time out the market , but i guarantee if you learn how to look after your money you dont need to be nearly as good as Gann at predicting the market. Get the market right just 50% of the time, but have sound money management you can make what Gann made and more. Tom
 Sep 19, 2005, 9:51pm #6 Joined Aug 2005 hmmm is there a bigger con factor operating into todays market though ? sort of I know that you know so , more chaos .
Sep 20, 2005, 7:05am   #7
Joined Sep 2005
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Bigbusiness So is there proof that Gann was that good or is it just something that was made up to sell some of the vast amount of trading materials he seems to have produced? I have read all sorts of allegations about him, from being a great trader, to being unable to trade and only able to teach. The truth might be somewhere in the middle but it is hard to believe he was that good when he didn't seem to be that wealthy. As his "Great Master Course" sold for US\$5,000 in 1954, around the average price of a house, I would have thought that if he could also trade so well, he would be the richest person around at that time. Perhaps he just knew how to spend it
He allocated over 50 million dollar during his lifetime which is approximately 500 million dollar today.

Where are varios newsmagasins that have been reporting his astronomic returns
and why would someone attend his seminars if it costs as much as a house if he isn't any good?

these facts speak for itself. I don't want to be rude, but it feels like som people are just making up excuses and try to deny the possible.

This thread was actually done to encourage people to go out and get the knowledge to predict the market with the same accuracy and get over 1800% in return every year, because such knowledge is available for those trying to seek it.

 Sep 20, 2005, 8:13am #8 Joined Dec 2001 People pay huge fees for courses today, I don't think that necessarily means they are worth the money. Did Gann ever claim to have made 50 million dollars or is it just the people selling his trading materials? Are you sure about your facts? I found this quote from a search and hope it is correct. Perhaps someone who has the book can confirm it:- Quote from 'Trading for a Living' by Alexander Elder. p23 "Various opportunists sell 'Gann courses' and 'Gann software'. They claim that Gann was one of the best traders that ever lived, that he left a \$50 million estate, and so on. I interviewed W.D. Gann's son, an analyst for a Boston bank. He told me that his famous father could not support his family by trading but earned his living by writing and selling instructional courses. When W.D. Gann died in the 1950s, his estate, including his house, was valued at slightly over \$100,000. The legend of W.D. Gann, the giant of trading, is perpetuated by those who sell courses and other paraphernalia to gullible customers."
 Sep 20, 2005, 9:51am #10 Joined Oct 2003 epic767, "W.D. Gann has got 1800 pa on his investments, but I'm sure he kept the secrets with himselfs, and such information is not available by all the trading materials." I see you're still a believer!
Sep 20, 2005, 10:12am   #11

Joined Jul 2004
Quote:
 Originally Posted by epic767 Doesn’t it really hurt you to know that there really is a way to predict the market with 90% accuracy if one just has the knowledge?
No, it doesn't hurt me at all epic, because it can't be done. End of.

Anyone else smelling "Specially Processed Assorted Meat" in a can?

Sep 20, 2005, 10:18am   #12

Joined Feb 2005
Quote:
 Originally Posted by epic767 it feels like som people are just making up excuses and try to deny the possible. This thread was actually done to encourage people to go out and get the knowledge to predict the market with the same accuracy and get over 1800% in return every year, because such knowledge is available for those trying to seek it.
just because such returns are possible doesnt mean that you or anyone will necessarily find the same or similar returns, even in much the same way that it might be possible for a competition fisherman to land a huge prize bass - indicating that such a feat is also possible, but not necessarily replicateable by anyone else.

 Sep 20, 2005, 3:19pm #13 Joined Sep 2005 A dashing Blade: give me evidence why it's not possible =) There is evidence that he got really big returns.
Sep 20, 2005, 3:21pm   #14
Joined Sep 2005
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Arbitrageur just because such returns are possible doesnt mean that you or anyone will necessarily find the same or similar returns, even in much the same way that it might be possible for a competition fisherman to land a huge prize bass - indicating that such a feat is also possible, but not necessarily replicateable by anyone else.
It's still possible becuase the human mind doesnt change over a couple of decades.

 Sep 20, 2005, 3:42pm #15 Joined Feb 2005 the markets do though. market dynamics of today are way different from what they were back in the early 20th century when Gann was trading. Just look at the difference between the markets of 1998-2000 and 2004-2005 - what worked 5/6 years ago wouldnt work in todays markets.