Predict the market with 90% accuracy

This is a discussion on Predict the market with 90% accuracy within the First Steps forums, part of the Reception category; epic, nothing works. and everything works. If Gann was so good, then why dont other Gann specialists replicate the 1800% ...

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Old Sep 20, 2005, 3:58pm   #16
 
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epic,

nothing works. and everything works.

If Gann was so good, then why dont other Gann specialists replicate the 1800% pa returns ?
If Gann traders were so good, the big banks would probably have head-hunted most of them.
If Gann "kept his secrets to himself", then unless someone rediscovers them, nobody is going to get 1800% pa returns.
If YOU have rediscovered Ganns secrets, you would be too busy making 1800% pa returns to bother posting.

I have looked at Gann, And I cant make it work. This does not mean nobody can make it work.
The patterns and angles look lovely AFTER the event.
There are so many lines and angles, you are going to get a hit sooner or later.

This is similar to Fibonacci ratios. There can be so many, that you will find correlations.
( I personally use only 1.618 and 0.618 Fibs - NO MORE. Otherwise I end up fooling myself.
Although I find no value in Gann generally, I must admit there seems to be a good correlation when looking at charts when seen from solstices/equinoxes. But this is large timeframe.
For shorter time-frames, I find Marc Rivallands variation on Ganns 3-bar reversals more useful. )

If you do use Gann, you tend to use other mechanisms to cross-verify.

nothing works. and everything works;
I have found that any idea or indicator can make money. Its your money management that will keep you ahead of the game.

If you use Gann - fine. Trade the signal. But, if it is wrong, get out quickly. Sooner or later a trade will run in your favour.
If you use Fibs - fine. Trade the signal. But if it is wrong, get out quickly. Sooner or later a trade will run in your favour.
If you use Ross Hooks - fine. Trade the signal. But if it is wrong, get out quickly. Sooner or later a trade will run in your favour.

Get the idea ??

( Why did it take me so LONG ( three years ), and so MUCH ( several thousands ), to understand that !! )

NB: Still learning. Still trading.
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Old Sep 20, 2005, 4:04pm   #17
 
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great comment Trendie.

Check out the Gann chart I posted in the traderpedia... I'd love to know how people make that work for 90% accurate trading.
http://www.trade2win.com/traderpedia/Gann
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Old Sep 20, 2005, 4:16pm   #18
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epic767 started this thread I;m quite sure that one can't learn gann's secret by reading all the books, because if his method was available and you could earn 1800 in return, everyone would do it. That's evidence that gann kept the secret to himself. What I want to stress is that I think it's possible to get the same returns If one has the knowledge, that's what distinguish a sucesfull investor in comparison to a loser after all.

But yes the market dynamics change all the time and being a sucesfull investor is about understanding the market variables and adapt to any changes. Everything can be described in mathematical terms,remember that.
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Old Sep 20, 2005, 4:39pm   #19
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by epic767
I;m quite sure that one can't learn gann's secret by reading all the books, because if his method was available and you could earn 1800 in return, everyone would do it.
No sh*t Sherlock.

Quote:
Originally Posted by epic767
That's evidence that gann kept the secret to himself.
No it's not. It's a supposition based on a rumour.

-Anyone else see this thread going the same way as the Blue Parrot sketch?-
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Old Sep 20, 2005, 5:33pm   #20
 
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Monty Python says....

Quote:
Originally Posted by A Dashing Blade
No sh*t Sherlock.



No it's not. It's a supposition based on a rumour.

-Anyone else see this thread going the same way as the Blue Parrot sketch?-
It's dead I tell you
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Old Sep 20, 2005, 5:43pm   #21
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"Everything can be described in mathematical terms,remember that." ...given that you have made this statement in such an emphatic manner perhaps you would oblige the rest of us reading it by compounding an 1800% annual return on any capital level you wish...by the time you get to year 5 you will undoubtedly begin to understand why your statements are being basically dismissed.
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Old Sep 20, 2005, 5:58pm   #22
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"Gann kept the secret to himself"

His 'secret' could have been a few lucky trades, and a good PR man. The only maket 'secret' I know of is hard work, observation, discipline, application and experience.
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Old Sep 20, 2005, 6:08pm   #23
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bigbusiness
People pay huge fees for courses today, I don't think that necessarily means they are worth the money. Did Gann ever claim to have made 50 million dollars or is it just the people selling his trading materials? Are you sure about your facts? I found this quote from a search and hope it is correct. Perhaps someone who has the book can confirm it:-

Quote from 'Trading for a Living' by Alexander Elder. p23

"Various opportunists sell 'Gann courses' and 'Gann software'. They claim
that Gann was one of the best traders that ever lived, that he left a $50
million estate, and so on. I interviewed W.D. Gann's son, an analyst for a
Boston bank. He told me that his famous father could not support his family
by trading but earned his living by writing and selling instructional
courses. When W.D. Gann died in the 1950s, his estate, including his house,
was valued at slightly over $100,000. The legend of W.D. Gann, the giant of
trading, is perpetuated by those who sell courses and other paraphernalia
to gullible customers."
How much was he worth when he died ! ? Maybe he was just keener to enjoy himself than most (ps: I would rather be a Gann than a Buffet)
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Old Sep 20, 2005, 6:10pm   #24
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chump
"Everything can be described in mathematical terms,remember that." ...given that you have made this statement in such an emphatic manner perhaps you would oblige the rest of us reading it by compounding an 1800% annual return on any capital level you wish...by the time you get to year 5 you will undoubtedly begin to understand why your statements are being basically dismissed.
Hi Chump,
please let me in, I am not as mathematical as you. what is the return on £1,000 for ten years?
thanks
BB
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Old Sep 20, 2005, 6:32pm   #25
 
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Gann was a 'magic method guru'. Gann certainly contributed alot to technical trading, But he was only human. I totally agree with Tuffty words here. The secret to the market is, there is no secret!

And big business, I was about to write out exactly the same stuff!

We certainly know how to kill a thread!
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Old Sep 20, 2005, 7:12pm   #26
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Here educate yourselves a little.

http://www.moneychimp.com/articles/f...s/fmfutval.htm
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Old Sep 20, 2005, 7:29pm   #27
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chump
thanks Chump,

the machine you recommended could not the math. clearly 1800% over 10 years is astronomical -

my rough calc is that if i follow the formula for just 5 years i will be turn £1,0000 into almost £2 billion.

Now i am not greedy - so if invest the £1,000, but you do the reading i am prepared to split the profit with you.

Billionaires both of us within 5 years!

How about it Chump? (oh and please dont tell anyone about Gann because it would be a shame if anyone else started using this)

BB
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Old Sep 20, 2005, 10:48pm   #28
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Bund,
It's the formula given on the link you that you should note ... and yes, the point I was making is that the kind of return suggested "1800%" is inescapably a nonsense when you do the simply arithmetic .
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Old Sep 21, 2005, 9:55am   #29
 
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I can predict the market with 100% accuracy.

If you ask nicely I'll tell you all.

JonnyT
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Old Sep 21, 2005, 10:07am   #30
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JonnyT
I can predict the market with 100% accuracy.

If you ask nicely I'll tell you all.

JonnyT

So can I. My first prediction is that the Dow will go up, down or sideways today. Seems to be what a lot of the analysts get paid to say every day
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