Predict the market with 90% accuracy

This is a discussion on Predict the market with 90% accuracy within the First Steps forums, part of the Reception category; Bigbusiness: good points, such claims have only been done by a third party. I whould however never by his trading ...

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Old Sep 20, 2005, 8:12am   #9
Joined Sep 2005
epic767 started this thread Bigbusiness: good points, such claims have only been done by a third party. I whould however never by his trading materials since it obviously don't work. If it did work, the authour of the books wouldn't be selling his trading materials, they would be earning 1800 pa on the stockmarket instead.

That's why it so obvious and embarrasing when I see scams like this:

I don't usually send out stuff like this, but what I have to tell you is just too good. For the last 6 months I've been developing the ULTIMATE TRADING PROGRAM.


I've figured out exactly HOW TO PICK THE NEXT MICROSOFT. In fact, over the last year I've had a 3000% return on my investment!!!
In my investing program there is absolutely NO RISK. In fact, it's such a SURE THING that we'll guarantee you cannot lose your investment. All you have to do to get in on this action is sign up, using your credit card for only $499.95.

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Please, if you are doing so well, why the heck are you trying to share your ideas and wasting your time with this work that won't give you as much return. People who believe in this is really just to naive. And I'm a very open minded person, but not stupid.

W.D. Gann has got 1800 pa on his investments, but I'm sure he kept the secrets with himselfs, and such information is not available by all the trading materials.

here is a quote from www.investopedia.com which is only an educational centre:

What Are the Gann Studies?
In 1908, Gann discovered what he called the "market time factor", which made him one of the pioneers of technical analysis. To test his new strategy, he opened one account with $300 and one with $150. It turned out to be wildly successful: Gann was able to make $25,000 profit with his $300 account in only three months; meanwhile, he made $12,000 profit with his $150 account in only 30 days! After his results were verified, he became famous on Wall Street as one of the best forecasters of all time.
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Old Sep 20, 2005, 8:51am   #10
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epic767,

"W.D. Gann has got 1800 pa on his investments, but I'm sure he kept the secrets with himselfs, and such information is not available by all the trading materials."

I see you're still a believer!
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Old Sep 20, 2005, 9:12am   #11
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by epic767
Doesn’t it really hurt you to know that there really is a way to predict the market with 90% accuracy if one just has the knowledge?
No, it doesn't hurt me at all epic, because it can't be done. End of.

Anyone else smelling "Specially Processed Assorted Meat" in a can?

Take your b*lls*t rip-off investment schemes elsewhere please.
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Old Sep 20, 2005, 9:18am   #12
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by epic767
it feels like som people are just making up excuses and try to deny the possible.

This thread was actually done to encourage people to go out and get the knowledge to predict the market with the same accuracy and get over 1800% in return every year, because such knowledge is available for those trying to seek it.
just because such returns are possible doesnt mean that you or anyone will necessarily find the same or similar returns, even in much the same way that it might be possible for a competition fisherman to land a huge prize bass - indicating that such a feat is also possible, but not necessarily replicateable by anyone else.
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Old Sep 20, 2005, 2:19pm   #13
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epic767 started this thread A dashing Blade: give me evidence why it's not possible =)

There is evidence that he got really big returns.
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Old Sep 20, 2005, 2:21pm   #14
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epic767 started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by Arbitrageur
just because such returns are possible doesnt mean that you or anyone will necessarily find the same or similar returns, even in much the same way that it might be possible for a competition fisherman to land a huge prize bass - indicating that such a feat is also possible, but not necessarily replicateable by anyone else.
It's still possible becuase the human mind doesnt change over a couple of decades.
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Old Sep 20, 2005, 2:42pm   #15
 
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the markets do though. market dynamics of today are way different from what they were back in the early 20th century when Gann was trading. Just look at the difference between the markets of 1998-2000 and 2004-2005 - what worked 5/6 years ago wouldnt work in todays markets.
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Old Sep 20, 2005, 2:58pm   #16
 
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epic,

nothing works. and everything works.

If Gann was so good, then why dont other Gann specialists replicate the 1800% pa returns ?
If Gann traders were so good, the big banks would probably have head-hunted most of them.
If Gann "kept his secrets to himself", then unless someone rediscovers them, nobody is going to get 1800% pa returns.
If YOU have rediscovered Ganns secrets, you would be too busy making 1800% pa returns to bother posting.

I have looked at Gann, And I cant make it work. This does not mean nobody can make it work.
The patterns and angles look lovely AFTER the event.
There are so many lines and angles, you are going to get a hit sooner or later.

This is similar to Fibonacci ratios. There can be so many, that you will find correlations.
( I personally use only 1.618 and 0.618 Fibs - NO MORE. Otherwise I end up fooling myself.
Although I find no value in Gann generally, I must admit there seems to be a good correlation when looking at charts when seen from solstices/equinoxes. But this is large timeframe.
For shorter time-frames, I find Marc Rivallands variation on Ganns 3-bar reversals more useful. )

If you do use Gann, you tend to use other mechanisms to cross-verify.

nothing works. and everything works;
I have found that any idea or indicator can make money. Its your money management that will keep you ahead of the game.

If you use Gann - fine. Trade the signal. But, if it is wrong, get out quickly. Sooner or later a trade will run in your favour.
If you use Fibs - fine. Trade the signal. But if it is wrong, get out quickly. Sooner or later a trade will run in your favour.
If you use Ross Hooks - fine. Trade the signal. But if it is wrong, get out quickly. Sooner or later a trade will run in your favour.

Get the idea ??

( Why did it take me so LONG ( three years ), and so MUCH ( several thousands ), to understand that !! )

NB: Still learning. Still trading.
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