Bond Trades Journal

Arbitrageur said:
why long just there? the recent trend has been down.
Click to expand...

Seasonal longs will kick in from monday, should be interesting to see if it correctly calls the end of this bear mkt.
 
Arbitrageur said:
why long just there? the recent trend has been down.
Click to expand...
Bonds oversold since mid-April with traders on the sidelines since then, waiting for this week's FOMC meeting and auctions to be over.
 
minx said:
Seasonal longs will kick in from monday, should be interesting to see if it correctly calls the end of this bear mkt.
Click to expand...
Also, the barrage of events that kept traders on the sidelines for a few weeks is now over but most will wait until the beginning of the week before taking a new position.
 
algocode said:
Bonds oversold since mid-April with traders on the sidelines since then, waiting for this week's FOMC meeting and auctions to be over.
Click to expand...

Interesting fundamental views.

Do you have a stop on this position? The trend for now seems to be continuing the way it was going before and if you're still long there's half a handle of heat on this trade.
 
Arbitrageur said:
Interesting fundamental views.

Do you have a stop on this position? The trend for now seems to be continuing the way it was going before and if you're still long there's half a handle of heat on this trade.
Click to expand...
Good point but I felt confident that we were in the middle of a bottom and that the downtrend had just been broken.

Stop at 105 with limited number of contracts because of the possibility I had evaluated at the time that I might be about a week too early.
 
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Added to existing long position at 105'30 and moved stops higher to 105'16.
 
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there was a low tick of 105.16 yesty, hope you moved your stop before that big drop on the open :cheesy:
 
Thanks Tzuntsu and Arbitrageur for picking up on that and giving me the opportunity to clarify my decisions regarding my stops. A little bit over an hour after the CPI report was released I was convinced that bonds were bottoming because:
- The dollar was going up; and stocks and oil were dropping; WHILE
- The CPI report didn't show inflation passthrough. The All Items Less Energy index was still showing a constant 0.2 monthly increase for a total year-to-year increase of 2.2% only.

So it was clear to me that bonds couldn't go much lower but were dangerously close to a stop level that needed to be moved down by a quarter point so that I could wait a little extra time for bonds to turn around.
 
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Hi Algocode,

Do you have any rough idea for your expected returns (% per year) and draw-downs, with and without leverage, per one contract basis?
 
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OddTrader,
My performance is very good but I've had some nasty drawdowns too. My main concern is to improve my timing as I tend to be a week or two off.
 
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