T-Bond Signal

[Hook Shot]

Update

Bill Gross said last Friday (Apr 4th) : Treasuries "the most overvalued asset bar none" - cnbc vid clip 4/4/08
I think he knows one or two things about bonds ...after all it's only mathematical at least pricing is..

T Bond futs have come back and now form a pennant at the highs during 2008.

What happens next ?

(1) bonds pop and get even more overvalued and so inevitable death
OR
(2) bonds start to wend their way lower as my analysis said they should....
OR
(3) bonds go sideways............

Bond bubble camp getting more vocal!

As I said Bill knows a thing or two about bonds.......
#T bond now at 7-1/2m lows........... downtrend in full force :clap:

 

[Hook Shot]

Blast from past - 10 Feb 2008

The secular Bull Market in Long Bonds

http://www.mrci.com/pdf/us.pdf

Train crash in slow motion ??

So I was hinting impending weakness before Bill Gross

I read and obscure piece whilst surfing aimlessly in late 07/early 08 can't quite remember .....but Lazards were saying the long decline in rates was at an end and money would get dearer and bonds would slide. In short a secular bull market was due in interest rates..... meaning a secular bear was due in bonds....

LAZARD'S coment was interesting cos they are a key player in the international banking "cartel" and they don't get much press .........!!!

Bill Gross then came out around Easter and hinted bubble.......

Much of the chatter now is higher rates... mmmh!

The secular wave now seems to be higher rates from the charts and rallies should be shorting events ....I was expecting a rally on this equity slide but maybe that occured at the short end (?) or maybe the slide was not bad enough - I dunno I'm still wearing my "L" plates on this stuff.

Edit: I'm looking for a near term rally as we have hit ~ 62% of the rally of from last summer lows ...also skimming the daily bollinger band lows... and in oversold territory... Let's see..

http://www.mrci.com/pdf/us.pdf - the long term chart hints that this near term rally I'm seeing may be bigger than first thought since we are now re-testing the pennant breakout - from 5year penn consolidation (circa 2003-early 2008) .... time will tell

 

[Victor90]

What do you ppl think of the Tbond? I still short it, anyone belives there will be a end of the the downward trend? I was thinking that since the us economy is in a downturn and they want ppl to start borrow again to get the market going bond investors must fear that the fed. is going to rise intrest. That would sink the current bonds value.

Am I right? Im kinda new to bonds trading.

 

[Hook Shot]

So I was hinting impending weakness before Bill Gross

I read and obscure piece whilst surfing aimlessly in late 07/early 08 can't quite remember .....but Lazards were saying the long decline in rates was at an end and money would get dearer and bonds would slide. In short a secular bull market was due in interest rates..... meaning a secular bear was due in bonds....

LAZARD'S coment was interesting cos they are a key player in the international banking "cartel" and they don't get much press .........!!!

Bill Gross then came out around Easter and hinted bubble.......

Much of the chatter now is higher rates... mmmh!

The secular wave now seems to be higher rates from the charts and rallies should be shorting events ....I was expecting a rally on this equity slide but maybe that occured at the short end (?) or maybe the slide was not bad enough - I dunno I'm still wearing my "L" plates on this stuff.

Edit: I'm looking for a near term rally as we have hit ~ 62% of the rally of from last summer lows ...also skimming the daily bollinger band lows... and in oversold territory... Let's see..

http://www.mrci.com/pdf/us.pdf - the long term chart hints that this near term rally I'm seeing may be bigger than first thought since we are now re-testing the pennant breakout - from 5year penn consolidation (circa 2003-early 2008) .... time will tell

Rallied into Thursday ...eventually Now is a difficult call as to whether we get more upside............ the slow stochastics have crossed over 20 and so potential for more rally (?)....

 

[Hook Shot]

Hi Victor

What do you ppl think of the Tbond? I still short it, anyone belives there will be a end of the the downward trend? I was thinking that since the us economy is in a downturn and they want ppl to start borrow again to get the market going bond investors must fear that the fed. is going to rise intrest. That would sink the current bonds value.

Am I right? Im kinda new to bonds trading.

As you can tell (previous posts) I'm bearish on T Bonds (big picture) but ..... for now I want to see what this counter trend looks like.

This may sound odd but I'm not so sure that "they" want people to start borrowing again at least not right now. I fear this is planned destruction at work ....years of low interest rates will probably be replaced by years of rising interest rates ...in a classic cycle pattern. The bonds have only been falling for a "few months".