Sugar

gene · Dec 22, 2004

I don't know what sugar's going to do, but it's going to do something. I think it will be worth watching after the holidays. I wouldn't expect a mega move, but there should be an easy little profit with a breakout in either direction. Looking at the charts, I think the downside is more likely, but it seems the fundamentals may be turning bullish. (Please don't press me for details on that last statement

. I'm just now beginning to look at sugar.)

Moneycat · Dec 23, 2004

I am confused at least as you are.

thomasdevos · Dec 23, 2004

Just a few of my thoughts.

The up trend started in the beginning of this year from 5.4 onwards.
The uptrend is still ongoing.

Any decline below 8.00 means for me the uptrend is finished. Major support @8.20 area.

I think we will see another go at the 9.00 resistance level in the short term, the trend is still bullish.
I think the contract will go for 9,40 initially with the following target of 9.70.

gene · Dec 23, 2004

I think if it goes past the 9.40 to 9.70 area, then it will go to about 14.00.
(I always look at the charts to guess at that stuff, and then I turn to the fundamentals for confirmation. I haven't started reading up on sugar, yet.)

henry766 · Dec 25, 2004

however if doesn't go up ... surely it will go down .. or visa v?

gene · Dec 26, 2004

"however if doesn't go up ... surely it will go down .. or visa v?"
Uhmm......Maybe.

Look at the charts above. Sugar has been stuck in a pretty tight range. Markets don't stay stuck in tight ranges forever. Look at the monthly chart. After a breakout, 14.00 looks like a reasonable upside objective, and a little above 5.00 looks like a reasonable downside objective. I don't give a fat flyin' rat's whisker which way it breaks out of the current range, but when it does break out, I'm thinking it will move quickly enough as to be a good market to trade. I'll be watching.

henry766 · Dec 27, 2004

but it could break and continue or break out and reverse, or visa v!!!

gene · Dec 27, 2004

(Having fun?

)
False breakouts are always a risk in any market. That's why I like for the fundamentals and price movement to agree before I enter a position.

bgold · Mar 1, 2006

Let's try liven up this Thread. Sugar in a major bull market and nobody posting any trades, ideas, observations?

Ok, 1st the boast. Short on Monday SB K at 1753, covered 1/2 at resp 1698 & 1645. Lucky trade, based on idea from broker, for once he was right.

What's next?

I still see it higher. Was yesterday the low at 1622? Possibly. Ideally I would like to go long:

B stop @ 1719 stop < 1622 initial target 2000
Unfortunately, that is about $1100 per contract. Bit much for me for these kind of punts as I want at least 2 contracts, allowing me to tak partial on the way.
Any advice for a spreadbetter where one can trade SB online (see my query in energy!)

Thanks

minx · Mar 1, 2006

Very small long a few days ago, nearly exited yesterday, was looking very hairy. Short coffee (31/1/06) reversed to long on yesterdays action too. Both are still tester trades as havent been in commodities for over a year now so trying not to get burned.

PS- These are the London commods, not NY.

minx · Mar 1, 2006

bgold said:
Any advice for a spreadbetter where one can trade SB online (see my query in energy!)

Thanks

Finspreads do NY and LDN sugar. I spoke to Capital Spreads and they are considering adding sugar to their list of commods but havent decided yet. So if you're interested then email them and put the pressure on them.

bgold · Mar 1, 2006

minx said:
Finspreads do NY and LDN sugar. I spoke to Capital Spreads and they are considering adding sugar to their list of commods but havent decided yet. So if you're interested then email them and put the pressure on them.

Thanks for feedback. I have sent them an email query. The website doesn't provide much detail though. Do you trade LON sugar and coffee online with them? tx

TWI · Mar 1, 2006

Sugar spread are worth investigating, been some great trades in the front spreads in both London and NY this year so far. Have a look at the charts and see how these things can move, nearly as wild as natgas. Also the London/NY arbs got pressured massively in Jan but have since started to widen out. Sugar has many opportunities safer than flat price which for now is pretty scary. Saying that, fundamentals are still very supportive and oct on rationing can be expected according to a large commercial I talked to. The thing that is hard to understand is that there are still a lot of stocks out there and Indian production is a huge swing so this can surely come to market if the price is really attractive. Most people are saying buy dips from here and with the ethanol story still very intact and the amount of cta money playing it is probably the thing to do.

minx · Mar 1, 2006

bgold said:
Thanks for feedback. I have sent them an email query. The website doesn't provide much detail though. Do you trade LON sugar and coffee online with them? tx

Do you mean CS? If so then just LON Coffee, they dont do sugar yet.

minx · Mar 1, 2006

twalker said:
Sugar spread are worth investigating, been some great trades in the front spreads in both London and NY this year so far. Have a look at the charts and see how these things can move, nearly as wild as natgas. Also the London/NY arbs got pressured massively in Jan but have since started to widen out.

Never looked at the sugar spread, will do in the morning, if its volatile then I might be interested. The NyLon spread is something I've thought about but I have a real aversion to pit markets, I used to wait 2 hours for trade confirmations on NYBoT Sugar and the bloody mkt is only open for 3 hours a day. Utter crap! ICE/IPE seem to be taking NYMEX on quite successfully so come on London or someone, kick NYboT where it hurts and take this contract from them electronically.....

TWI · Mar 2, 2006

With the Arb i is best just to wok a limit order. It is probably the highest volume of trade on each exchange so you can simply place an arb order, you do not need to leg it. I agree wholeheartedly regarding pits. I always amazes me that when you get pissed off because you do not have a fill despite the market getting to your price and you cancel the order the fill often comes back from the ******* trying to tick you b4 giving the fill.

bgold · Mar 7, 2006

Went long May Sugar on Friday on break of 1717 (as per previous post). Initial stop was at 1674 (below 3 Mar Low). Stop now at Break-even. Depending on todays' open may take a partial. Long term target still >1900.

It all looked too good. Market retraced all yesterdays' gains. Stopped out 1720 for scratch :-(

bgold · Mar 13, 2006

Early entry in White Sugar. Bot at 446 stop <432 Intial target is the B/O of the Contracting Triangle. My very first trade in London Sugar. Great suggestion by fellow T2W, Minx and Twalker to get a feel for this market and the NY/LON arb.

Twalker, where would I find some more practical background info on trading the NY/Lon arb? Fe historical data, etc
tx

TWI · Mar 14, 2006

bgold,
Congrats on the first Lon trade.
As for the arb, sugar brokers such as TRX can provide some info, but I have not seen a lot about it, indeed I do not know much about it on the physical side.
I use Reuters3000Xtra into Excel and can then see how it looks all the way along the curve and how each has looked histroically. The bargains are gone now but sure they will be back at some point. I do favour buying weakness rather than selling into strength in this thing.

mickandpete · Mar 20, 2006

Cap Spreads now added sugar as per may london

Sugar

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