your thoughts on my trades and the ecomomy

mattbird55

Newbie
5 0
Hi guys, was wondering what your thoughts are about some of my investments and the general state of the economy. I trade regular shares and when i want to short i generally use spread bets.

After making a little money shorting oil/mining stocks i am now pulling out of that as im not sure how much lower its gonna go. personally i think that oil is now historically fairly priced, if you look at a long term oil price graph and draw a best fit line then oil should be about 50-60 dollars a barrel.


I think if the FTSE and the DOW can stay above 3800 and 8000respectively till christmas then it might be a good buy signal. was even tempted to have a punt at the end of year footsie in anticipation of a small rally.

Also I bought some shares in barclays a few weeks ago at 190p as i saw these as having a good potential risk reward for the long run i.e 5 years, they have dropped 30% since due to the shinnanigans with the arabs dealings :-( but i think potentially in 5 years or so they could be back to 600p or so which would be a pretty good return.
I think there will always be big profits to be made in banking even if it will become more tightly regulated.

In terms of the overall ecomomy i can see light at the end of the tunnel, although we are hearing about firms going under and unemployment rising i think that this is basically a clearout of dead wood in the economy, and the firms that remain will stand in good stead for the future.

One thing i cant get over is how negative the press is. one minute (month to be precise) they are moaning about prices going through the roof, the next month they are worried about them falling and informing us about various senarios that MAY end capitalism as we know it.
 

Jaydee

Established member
556 107
After making a little money shorting oil/mining stocks i am now pulling out of that as im not sure how much lower its gonna go. personally i think that oil is now historically fairly priced, if you look at a long term oil price graph and draw a best fit line then oil should be about 50-60 dollars a barrel.

I think if the FTSE and the DOW can stay above 3800 and 8000respectively till christmas then it might be a good buy signal. was even tempted to have a punt at the end of year footsie in anticipation of a small rally.

Also I bought some shares in barclays a few weeks ago at 190p as i saw these as having a good potential risk reward for the long run i.e 5 years, they have dropped 30% since due to the shinnanigans with the arabs dealings :-( but i think potentially in 5 years or so they could be back to 600p or so which would be a pretty good return.
I think there will always be big profits to be made in banking even if it will become more tightly regulated.

In terms of the overall ecomomy i can see light at the end of the tunnel, although we are hearing about firms going under and unemployment rising i think that this is basically a clearout of dead wood in the economy, and the firms that remain will stand in good stead for the future.

One thing i cant get over is how negative the press is. one minute (month to be precise) they are moaning about prices going through the roof, the next month they are worried about them falling and informing us about various senarios that MAY end capitalism as we know it.

Hi Matt

I won't comment on Oil as it isn't really my area. However, regarding BARC, it's a stock I'm looking into but I will be waiting for some sign of recovery before I make any investment here. I was looking at LLOY before BARC but they're getting tangled up in that HBOS rabble which doesn't please me too much. I'm sure you are right about BARC coming back in 5 years, not sure it will see 600 but it will recover in 5 years I would imagine. Personally, I'm waiting for the FTSE to start to recover and I'll also be looking at the Banking sector - when these two are looking ripe, that's when I'll be looking at the micro/stock level and picking a price for BARC.

Regarding the economy, not sure I can see the light yet. I'm thinking the lows will be sometime around 3rd-4th quarter next year. Wouldn't be too surprised to see the FTSE between 3000-3500 but, who knows eh? I thought there may be a medium term bounce in the indices over the next few weeks but the DOW has just closed below 8000 tonight after a hefty sell off late on and the Eurostoxx is well below 3300 which was also a big level. Since this has happened, it looks like the lows of the indices are about to be tested - hang on to your hat!

Best

JD
 
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Boodleboy322

Newbie
2 0
My prediction is that oil will hit below $50.00 a barrel in the next 3-6 months but will rally back up to a median of about $65.00.
 

Trading2k

Member
72 2
I think the FTSE 100 will hold above the lows of 3700 before Christmas and will rally above 4000 in the immediate future (Next two weeks). I think we are in for a bad few months and March 2009 could see new lows of 3500 on the FTSE. I think 3000 is too low but wouldn't discount it either. Best of luck trading.
 

mattbird55

Newbie
5 0
so much can happen in 24 hours ftse and dow are already testing/breaking the limits i mentioned. barclays is down more too :-(
 
 
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