YM journal

[frugi]

Yay

+47 from two. Phew!

An early long following the morning gap fill, supported by a quadruple bottom, rising TICK and RSI PD on 1 & 5 min charts. Closed this after a messy 3pk ND at significant resistance from yesterday. In fact I reversed my position (usually too nervous or stupid to do this) and covered at trendline / 100 EMA support . Not a morning on which I fancied being short for long. I may not have a $5m delta limit but I respect the traditional Xmas inclinations of those that do! (tks China

The only problem with taking an early lead is it led to excessive caution later. There were two more 3 pk ND setups that I didn't take, but in my defence:

The first one occured as a triple or quadruple top in the middle of an upchannel and I was hoping for a higher high that reched the channel boundary before shorting.

The second was better and I probably should have taken it, but, if you look at the 5 min chart you'll see a 5 wave up pattern. At the moment of decision the 5th wave (or 3rd push up) looked too short compared to the first two pushes up to be the real top. I wanted 525 or so to be sure. As it happened the down TL drawn from 3/12 high restrained any further taurean fervour.

 

[frugi]

Itchy scalp

+36 from four.

A premature long off the morning 3 pk PD, missed my stop by 3 pips and then closed just above 100 EMA. Hung on for the extra couple of pips cause of the flag target T1. Total 22.

A mini 3pk ND scalp in the middle of the triangle/bull flag, closed for just 6 as RSI to price ratio showed a weak move down and I was expecting the gap to be filled. Also a look at the 5 min chart shows the top of the channel from which price broke out being tested.

A better 3 pk ND short supported by strong res on the 5/60 min and various divergences, esp note the decreasing volume on the up thrust, for 20.

A Grail long for a 12 point loss. Pity as the trend eventually continued to the target of previous high and beyond. Placing my stop directly on gap support / top of previous bull triangle probably not such a good idea. But when you're on a roll...the market takes back its due - high spirits are not allowed.

Could have taken the last 3 pk ND around 20:30 but TICK looked pretty bullish. Note the subsequent pullback is shorter than the one between 18:30 and 19:10, confirming my suspicions.

Note to my 3 viewers: if the chart looks tiny and all fits on one screen then you want to hover the mouse over it until you see a nav bar that lets you expand the chart to its full size. It is a double monitor screenshot so you'll need to scroll between the two! :cheesy:

 

[chump]

LOL....I wonder if I should say...maybe not

 

[frugi]

...my last offer is £15k for gardening duties?

I'll take it, but I need wi-fi access throughout the estate and a lot of random fag breaks.



Tomorrow scares me...would you prefer a 25 or a 50 point loss?

 

[Quercus]

Now now frugs, if you are ever going to get to "The Beach", you must always be positive!
We all know that those SMALL losses will always be outweighed by the wins, in the long run!
Well done with the trading and posting.
Q

 

[frugi]

Hey Q

What's the weather like over there?

[rant]

At last the discipline is improving - sure, I'm missing huge chunks of trends and making mistakes aplenty but I don't care cause I seem to have got myself under control, and in my case that's several levers of the lock duly picked. For the moment I am chuffed enough to limp through the day and play the averages, but one day I swear I'm gonna let go, or is that tighten up, lol, and see what those bars really have to say...starting with a first course of 87000 of the critters... I mean look really hard, till I see, sweat over it until the eyes glaze, while thinking continuously about what their message might be. Sounds like hard work, eek! But worth every, erm, minute. The clues are there but we all miss 'em!

[/rant]

Yes, certainly must look positive - and I do. Last 6 months have been savage, but extremely educational. An initiation worth enduring and all that.

Cheers for the support anyway mate, I'd better nip my tangent in the bud

 

[chump]

15k might be discussable , but what really worries me is the thought of this wild eyed figure leaping through the shrubs shouting "Go Long"..no ,no "Go Short"...damn , damn are you a rose ,no it's a flag ...look at what this did to Prince Charlie ..since he spoke to the flowers everyone treats him like a Royal Loonie ....well we won't go into that

 

[frugi]

I heart triangles, not

LOL chumpy! You'll have to let me adapt the shrubbery and replace those gappy hawthorns with a denser medium so I can hide within it, thus protecting casual viewers from my schizophrenic outbursts.

Boring treacherous stupid little frustrating triangle. Particularly perfidious today with a number of false or disappointing breakouts. Fortunately the system kept me safe from all of them.

No decent setups today for me, except a +5 on an unconvincing 3pk ND around 19:30. So watch out Asprey's, I'm obviously after some expensive jewels now. The triangle pretended to break down, pulled itself together and delivered a pathetic rally that ended close to the handbag 100 EMA. I was stopped out on a trailing stop, which is fine by me.

Remember to roll over contracts today - I had wondered why yesterday was a little thin!

No doubt there will be a huge rally into the close, but I'm busy with carbonara and Sancerre so it can leave me behind.

 

[jimmy1]

Hi Frugi,
I read your thread with interest... i scalp for 1/2 tick 1 tick, but my charts are alot smaller i use 4- 8 tick charts instead of time charts have you looked at his? i also use the dax as it is 25 euro a tick and only 2 euro half turn brokerage on ib.
i mainly look for macd and look at the market depth, but the hardest thing is dicipline as my charts are so micro i think ow gone offside 1 tick but it should come back!

 

[frugi]

covered costs

I've never looked at tick charts jimmy, partly cause my charting software won't allow it but mainly cause I'm not a true scalper. Sure my profits are small but the intention is to grab bigger chunks as I gain skill and confidence. Don't think I'll ever be a true trend follower but I'm looking for anything from 10-50 pts per trade as an ultimate aim. One day lol!

Little to report today, felt a bit jaded from the weekend to be honest: +3 from a -10 and +13. Displeased with the first, pleased with the second thanks to accurate entry and exit.

Wanted to take the PD at 16:15, but was hoping for a third trough 10 or so points lower. Ah well.

 

[clylbw]

Hi Frugi,

As you know I do not trade YM, so following are my observations only. Also, I use price/volume only, so my comments are not based on indicators.

About your long around 15:30 pm GMT / 10:30 am EST (sorry I cannot see the time in your chart clearly). To me it is a clear head & shoulder, as highlighted by the blue lines in the attached chart. I would have gone short at the 10:10 am EST 5m bar, the high of the right shoulder, and closed at 10:30 am EST 5m bar with the volume spike.

Sorry I cannot do this at a 1m chart; I simply find it a bit noisy.

Hope this helps.

 

[frugi]

Thanks for posting clylbw, indeed it does help.

I always wonder whether to include premarket/after hours data on my chart. Today it would certainly have been wise as without I couldn't see the left shoulder you mention. Had I done so I probably wouldn't have taken the long. I live and learn...

Cheers.

 

[pogle]

I would have gone short at the 10:10 am EST 5m bar, the high of the right shoulder, and closed at 10:30 am EST 5m bar with the volume spike.

What is it on the chart that would have prompted the short at the 10:10 bar? This is an up bar with a close near the high. The next bar is the first bar I can see that indicates a right shoulder forming. Or have I missed something?

pogle

 

[clylbw]

Hi pogle,

It is the formations of the previous bars that would have tipped me off. Such formations are not 'clean', although they did make a HL. Coupled with the fact that they happened in a context likely to be a h&s, I would have gone short at that time. At the very least, I would never have gone long.

Sorry for sounding subjective , but my strategy is subjective.

 

[frugi]

+16 from one. Didn't tangle with the Fed. The little 3pk ND around 20:00 might have been taken but it had broken out of the channel so who knows. Glad I wasn't about to mess it up, frankly!

 

[pogle]

Hi clylbw,

Thanks for that. Subjective's OK by me. I'd agree that a long certainly wasn't on the cards, but I wouldn't have felt happy taking a short until a bar later and consequently at a worse price.

pogle

 

[frugi]

Hideous Xmas shopping...

...caused me to miss the H&S break around 16:00, but then again the rising wedge TL was only a few points below so the target might not have been reached.

Not to worry, I grabbed +22 from one thanks to various bits of TA converging around 16:25. The H&S target was reached, accompanied by an intermediate TL bounce, a TICK/RSI and volume PD. Exit was on the third little peak around 16:40 - there was no RSI ND but some TICK ND plus it was bumping up against a previous TL. Guess I could have held on for another 20 but the V bottom surprised me with its rarity and I expected a pull back to the 5m TL at 655ish after those peaks. Poor price action skills to blame no doubt - I bet there were clues to suggest this was unlikely.

No setups for the rest of the day except a 3pk at 20:50, but with only 10 mins to go there wasn't enough R:R and the price often unstable in the market twilight. Missed 10 pts by the looks of it, in hindsight.

A position short close to NY Eve looks increasingly tempting FWIW, if you believe the RSI ND-fest on the weeklies...not to mention the current securing of annual bonuses that will require some adjustment in the New Year

 

[frugi]

Hindsight trading on the linear dialectic medium

+47 from one.

Shock horror - I actually managed to acquire a reasonable length of trend today, though I admit it wasn't really my fault. Tthanks are due to a gamble entry. Long at 679 off the 5 min channel trendline around 3.00 time pivot and held until there was some ND around 16:35. So what happened to the 10 point profit taking rule, you ask? Well, it was so near the top of the triangle at 10 pts profit that I decided to lock in 5 and see what happened. It is Xmas bonus season after all. After the BO I locked in 10 (stop at 689) and let him run with a clear conscience.

Missed the long at 20:00, but, once again, there weren't 3 ND peaks, just a brace, and I thought the breakdown from a well established channel might become very ugly. When it looks really bad, you get a savage V reversal! Quite amusing really.

 

[clylbw]

Hi frugi,

About the V reversal at 15:00 pm EST. Do not know about indicators or channels, but It looks like the classic tweezer bottom Socrates has mentioned. There are also signals from EWs, with 3 big down waves ended in the intraday low by a potential selling climax. But I had better not elaborate on this.

Anyway, it is a more risky entry, and whether take it or not depends on your strategy, I suppose.

 

[frugi]

Intraday post-event profiles r us

Thanks clylbw, you reminded me to look more closely at the 5 min chart. Definitely a tweezer bottom I reckon. Quite rare on the Dow I think, mind you. Please feel free to elaborate as you see fit - I can keep a secret :cheesy:

Knocking off early today with a modest +21 from a nice, if a tad late, 3pk PD long, supported by PD on 5 min too. Closed at the 100 EMA cause ADX>30 in a down trend. As usual I missed the entire morning down trend, but that's better than fighting the beast.

Would be gratifying if the formation on the 5 min is a bear flag that breaks down - target c610 is near my comp entry Don't suppose they'll let it descend that far though.