Yellowlion's EURUSD Trading Journal

[yellowlion]

Short 4931 witha short leash.

Out 4908..........night.

Good way to end the day.

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Good Morning All,

Well 1.50 has arrived.....Persistent little trend isn't it?....
Nothing going on on my end....setting up a php development environment on the laptop here at the coffee shop. What a pain in the rear. I believe I finally have a working configuration.

Looking for short opportunities when they present themselves. We will see whether 1.50 was a trophy (the top) or whether it is just another number. I'm not interested to find out with more money so I'm going to wait for a better opportunity.

'Unrealizing' yesterday's profits gives me 1 short @ .4977. Position balance $0.00

Back to web development. Catch you later....

 

[yellowlion]

Good Morning All,

We test a claim by analyzing sample data in an attempt to distinguish between results that can easily occur by chance and results that are highly unlikely to occur by chance.

Thus opens the "Hypothesis Testing" chapter in the Elementary Statistics textbook that I'm reviewing to help someone get through tomorrow's exam.

Nothings changed on my end. I was looking at the upper 1.50's for an entry but the US equity markets sold hard in the last hour of trading and continued to sell hard in the after hours so that got in front of me.

We may get some weakness going forward. Who knows. The trend has been amazing.

I'll be helping (I hope) the student during the US morning then I've got another computer project at the Boys and Girls club right after so you may not hear from me US morning.

It's not what we have that matters, it's that we help with what we have.

still 1 short @ .4977 position balance: $0.00. Remember this was the initial short entry at .4826; adjusted by 'unrealizing' subsequent profitable trades made under the same idea.

I do this because:
1) it helps me keep track of just where the b/e is, and more importantly
2) It reminds me why I'm in a trade in the first place. I have a tendency of losing sight of the original idea in the thick of things, especially when it takes a while for the trade to develop (and I've learned that is NOT a good thing. Essentially my Dumba** appears and ruins everything.) These adjustments help to remind me what the heck I'm doing here.

This is not the same thing as hoping and wishing. I set stop losses to take care of that.

 

[gus]

Short 5036 based on hour bar count. Daily bar count doesn't really support the position, but we see...................

b/e on that one...............maybe jest watch the beast fer a wee bit.

 

[yellowlion]

Short 5036 based on hour bar count. Daily bar count doesn't really support the position, but we see...................

b/e on that one...............maybe jest watch the beast fer a wee bit.

Yeah I don't want anything more at this level. If it reverses from here It will yield enough.

EURUSD keeps printing higher bottoms so the uptrend remains in place. My guess is it's getting pretty crowded.

A capitulation high could occur. If it's coming to an end the reversal will want to pick up all the volume it can. That means any shorts at this level may have to get their stomachs turned before they realize any profits.

No change in my outlook.

1 short open @ .4977. Looking for shorting opportunities above 1.50.

Have a great weekend all. It's pumpkin picking time.

 

[gus]

75.05 / 74.94 is a good support level. We haven't got there yet.

Friday 10/23 it hit 74.95 - so where now do we go? & where shall traders take the Eur/Usd pair?

Monday dawns clear & the sunshine breaks across the forest.

 

[yellowlion]

75.05 / 74.94 is a good support level. We haven't got there yet.

Friday 10/23 it hit 74.95 - so where now do we go? & where shall traders take the Eur/Usd pair?

Monday dawns clear & the sunshine breaks across the forest.

Good Morning All,

Yesterday's post was deleted because there was incorrect info. Sorry 'bout that.

Gus, the ICE low for DX was posted on Wednesday at 75.09 but your broker may have had another quote on Friday.

The forexpros2 thread called for strong resistance at .5082. I had an order at .5086. Sure wish we got a test. This market has repeatedly stepped in front of me the past week or so.

Today's support at .4844 brings back memories. It was the previous top that sent EURUSD back to .4480

The first leg down off .4844 was 158 pips. The current Asian leg down is 157 pips. We have since bounced 30 pips higher. I like .4540 as a near support level ...

I closed the .4977 lot at .4863 at 17:26 yesterday and am looking for a re-entry as EURUSD works off a minor oversold condition.

Get in on pullbacks with skepticism - but get in...use good risk management because they could take it up a ways off .4844.

 

[wwwin1]

Seems like the bears are taking control for now, I would short if it gets to around 1.4920 or so.

 

[yellowlion]

Seems like the bears are taking control for now, I would short if it gets to around 1.4920 or so.

Good Call if it was at 06:00 GMT.

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Hi All,

Had an order at .4950 but the initial pullback topped @ .4926, at a shallow Fib retracement. Once again they got in front of me. Grrrrr...

Looks like it's setting up for .4750/00.

Be patient, wait for low risk opportunities. Could try one short at .4844/62.

Got a busy day ahead out and about. Catch up with you later .

 

[gus]

Managed to survive that bear party without a loss - amazing - at one point it looked like they were going to clean out my pumpkin patch, but with a number of trades I'm up about 60 pips this week. Just one more work day for me, off to Cincinnati Thurs morning. Yellowlion, I use Tradestation & Gain Capitol, so I've no idea if their dollar index data is accurate. I have the new Meta Stock v11 - i should install it with another data feed, perhaps when time permits - for now I'm done for Tuesday.

 

[yellowlion]

Managed to survive that bear party without a loss - amazing - at one point it looked like they were going to clean out my pumpkin patch, but with a number of trades I'm up about 60 pips this week.

Good job Gus,

Keep an eye on FXJake's thread too. He does a great job.


Hi All,

Can't seem to get an entry at my level 'round here but I'm gonna keep tryin'.

Have a couple orders in, will keep you posted on any fills. Kinda busy with outside projects this week. To and fro and up and down on the Earth busy.

I will say that short opportunities can be had at a better price than where we are right now.

+11.58% for the month here so no worries.

 

[yellowlion]

Filled 1 long .4747
Filled 1 long at .4715

 

[yellowlion]

Filled 1 long .4747
Filled 1 long at .4715

Good Morning All,

A little trade management later and I'm holding 1 long at .4712 b/e with a $0.00 profit balance. Orders are in and pending.

Catch you in the US morning.

 

[yellowlion]

Hi All,

Had a target for the trade at .4812 and per the way things have been going lately they got in front by 4 pips so I closed at .4792 for 80 pips.

Have a great day.

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Well no sooner said and they had the strength to take it to .4812. No bad...there was good resistance and a valid reason to close 1 lot.

Kinda strong here.

 

[yellowlion]

Good Morning All,

Well I may call it a month. I'm happy with +16.58%. They just kept stepping in front of me. Kind of frustrating but at least I didn't lose my head.

Happy Halloween.

 

[yellowlion]

Good Morning All,

Hope everyone had a splendid Halloween weekend.

This month, I believe the US Dollar can show a more strength than what we have seen already.

I think the Dollar Index will make 78.30/79.30 before the first half of November is over. That may be all there is for the current strength. After that we will have to wait and see.

Oil looks to support at 75.00. Gold is just overbought.

10 year US benchmark futures continue to print higher lows paving the way for lower rates.

We'll see if the S&P's cant hold the low at 1019.95 as it becomes near-term oversold into the first half of the month.

As such, I don't see why .4529 EURUSD can't be realized as an initial downside target. Right now we are working off an oversold condition that may take the pair into shorting territory.

Here we go into Thanksgiving. Let's harvest some pips.

 

[yellowlion]

Good Morning All,

Hope everyone had a splendid Halloween weekend.

This month, I believe the US Dollar can show more strength than what we have seen already.

I think the Dollar Index will make 78.30/79.30 before the first half of November is over. That may be all there is for the current strength. After that we will have to wait and see.

Oil looks to support at 75.00. Gold is just overbought.

10 year US benchmark futures continue to print higher lows paving the way for lower rates.

We'll see if the S&P's cant hold the low at 1019.95 as it becomes near-term oversold into the first half of the month.

As such, I don't see why .4529 EURUSD can't be realized as an initial downside target. Right now we are working off an oversold condition that may take the pair into shorting territory.

Here we go into Thanksgiving. Let's harvest some pips.

 

[BrendanTTA]

Good Morning All,

Hope everyone had a splendid Halloween weekend.

This month, I believe the US Dollar can show more strength than what we have seen already.

I think the Dollar Index will make 78.30/79.30 before the first half of November is over. That may be all there is for the current strength. After that we will have to wait and see.

Oil looks to support at 75.00. Gold is just overbought.

10 year US benchmark futures continue to print higher lows paving the way for lower rates.

We'll see if the S&P's cant hold the low at 1019.95 as it becomes near-term oversold into the first half of the month.

As such, I don't see why .4529 EURUSD can't be realized as an initial downside target. Right now we are working off an oversold condition that may take the pair into shorting territory.

Here we go into Thanksgiving. Let's harvest some pips.

I would rather be a buyer of EURUSD.

 

[yellowlion]

I would rather be a buyer of EURUSD.

Morning Brendan,

Let me know when you're buying above 50...I'll sell 'em to ya.


And Good Morning All,

Logistics day so no involvement for me yesterday. I had a sell order at .4877 but it went only to the now legendary .4844. That level still carries some weight...117 pips worth yesterday midday.

In reality I have no feel for the market right now so I'm gonna spend some time re-connecting.

Will post if a light comes on.

 

[gus]

Had a great time in Cincy. Back in time to work y'day but only did 22 pips.

Yellowlion, look outside, that moon can't get any brighter,lol.................................oh ya dat isn't the light yer looking for.

Happy November!

 

[BrendanTTA]

Morning Brendan,

Let me know when you're buying above 50...I'll sell 'em to ya.


And Good Morning All,

Logistics day so no involvement for me yesterday. I had a sell order at .4877 but it went only to the now legendary .4844. That level still carries some weight...117 pips worth yesterday midday.

In reality I have no feel for the market right now so I'm gonna spend some time re-connecting.

Will post if a light comes on.

Thanks mate.

I had already closed my EURUSD buy trade yesterday:
http://tradingeducationprogram.org/2009/11/02/eurusd-58-pips-profit/