I've never been involved in currency speculation, but am considering it. I have noticed that the UK economy is deteriorating. We have high inflation and no growth. I also noticed that the Pound is on down trend against the Yen. So would you sell UK pounds and buy Yen?
rols
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,621
- Likes
- 336
One of the first things that I noticed when I started currency trading was that by the time I was considering a trade it was generally too late. I also noticed that doing the opposite of what the press was saying generally proved correct in a crude sort of way.
Looking at a monthly chart this pair may have found some support if it holds current levels.
Also bear in mind that the GBP is around a 2 year low against the dollar.
The dollar affects everything so that needs to be looked at too.
And the US economy has been supposedly deteriorating rapidly over the last months but the dollar has rallied. Doesn't make sense does it?? What's happened to the 57 trillion dollars of derivatives? Why are others propping up the dollar if indeed this is the case? Is there a lot of printing of new bills going on? Are the US covering up their economic crisis until the new President gets signed in? There's nothing like a crisis at home to be a good reason for starting another war. Pakistan or Iran perhaps this time?
That's why the old adage 'trade what you see not what you think' is so important IMO.
Good trading!
TWI
Senior member
- Messages
- 2,559
- Likes
- 269
[QUOTEThat's why the old adage 'trade what you see not what you think' is so important IMO][/QUOTE]
Absolutely agree.
A lot of people scratching their heads about the $ move and as Lehman pointed out last week this $ move has fallen into the 99.9 percentile. The stories on the idiot financial news channels are so mixed up it makes no sense, but little they say ever does anyway. Roughly the argument goes that whereas the US housing market triggered this mess, now the "market" consider the other rich economies will be hurting the most as a result so they are correcting vs the $. Couple this with the fudged figures released from US Gov such as surge in US june exports which in turn will improve the jackanory GDP figs and you have what was needed a saving $ bull averting the feared $ rout. Check of shadowstatistics.com if you want to see that actually the $ really should have continued down the rabit hole. IMO the USD is about as valuablle as toilet paper but as the quote above so rightfully states. Go with the flow, not against it. Of course the market may rightfully expect the US to raise rates sooner rather than never to confirm thes speculations and narro the gap with the Euro but do not hold your breath. A lot of market manipulations going on as there are economimies on the line here and do not put anything past the working group on markets to ensure that what needs to be done gets done and everybody playing at the poker table ends up paying their money to the bank.
Absolutely agree.
A lot of people scratching their heads about the $ move and as Lehman pointed out last week this $ move has fallen into the 99.9 percentile. The stories on the idiot financial news channels are so mixed up it makes no sense, but little they say ever does anyway. Roughly the argument goes that whereas the US housing market triggered this mess, now the "market" consider the other rich economies will be hurting the most as a result so they are correcting vs the $. Couple this with the fudged figures released from US Gov such as surge in US june exports which in turn will improve the jackanory GDP figs and you have what was needed a saving $ bull averting the feared $ rout. Check of shadowstatistics.com if you want to see that actually the $ really should have continued down the rabit hole. IMO the USD is about as valuablle as toilet paper but as the quote above so rightfully states. Go with the flow, not against it. Of course the market may rightfully expect the US to raise rates sooner rather than never to confirm thes speculations and narro the gap with the Euro but do not hold your breath. A lot of market manipulations going on as there are economimies on the line here and do not put anything past the working group on markets to ensure that what needs to be done gets done and everybody playing at the poker table ends up paying their money to the bank.
rols
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,621
- Likes
- 336
Actually this is a very good point. There is a staggering amount of short interest on the pound at the mo. Good time to look for one of those 200+ pip rebound days. It's gonna come soon.
Remember the words of Jankovsky when considering entering a trade....
"Where would the losers be now?"
' And the US economy has been supposedly deteriorating rapidly over the last months but the dollar has rallied. Doesn't make sense does it?? '
Maybe the economic situation is worse in Europe and Japan? Or is it worse in US?
BBC NEWS | Business | US GDP rebounds with 3.3% growth
Maybe the economic situation is worse in Europe and Japan? Or is it worse in US?
BBC NEWS | Business | US GDP rebounds with 3.3% growth
Until recently I worked alongside a small group who spent a good percentage of time staying abreast of the fundamentals (generic & currency specific) & keeping cheat sheets updated on a daily basis etc.
We would regularly bring conflicting information to the collective table, & the 'several heads better than one' angle usually ended up filtering & concentrating the strength of the info so that it complimented the technical stance we were currently looking at. It worked well & is definitely a time saver.
For the time being I’m working an individual gig & I can tell you now, the fundamental focus is succinct to say the least.
If you’re a one man band & you got your sh*t together then you might just make it thru to the other side. If you don’t got your act nailed down tight as a drum, then no amount of economic knowledge or so called fundamental access is going to keep you afloat.
Most of the publicly accessible analyst-talking head chatter out there is complete & utter garbage. They haven’t got a f***ing clue what’s going on from one day to the next & what’s more, they actually get to pocket a pay check at the end of every month for their troubles
All you are to them is another click on their web site frontage. Draw you in so they can sell you some worthless $150 per month news & eco service tat.
If you're relying on outside or unfamiliar sources for part of your trading package, be it fundamental or technical, then trust no-one & nothing. Double check everything you read & hear & ensure you got a nice clean, tight grip on your technical planning & positioning.
If you possess a modicum of common sense that will be a plus. Get your head down to some serious work & if you don’t waste too much valuable time & energy waving your d*ck on internet forum sites you might gain a step or two ahead of the crowd if you’re real smart. If not, you’re simply shark bait.
We would regularly bring conflicting information to the collective table, & the 'several heads better than one' angle usually ended up filtering & concentrating the strength of the info so that it complimented the technical stance we were currently looking at. It worked well & is definitely a time saver.
For the time being I’m working an individual gig & I can tell you now, the fundamental focus is succinct to say the least.
If you’re a one man band & you got your sh*t together then you might just make it thru to the other side. If you don’t got your act nailed down tight as a drum, then no amount of economic knowledge or so called fundamental access is going to keep you afloat.
Most of the publicly accessible analyst-talking head chatter out there is complete & utter garbage. They haven’t got a f***ing clue what’s going on from one day to the next & what’s more, they actually get to pocket a pay check at the end of every month for their troubles
All you are to them is another click on their web site frontage. Draw you in so they can sell you some worthless $150 per month news & eco service tat.
If you're relying on outside or unfamiliar sources for part of your trading package, be it fundamental or technical, then trust no-one & nothing. Double check everything you read & hear & ensure you got a nice clean, tight grip on your technical planning & positioning.
If you possess a modicum of common sense that will be a plus. Get your head down to some serious work & if you don’t waste too much valuable time & energy waving your d*ck on internet forum sites you might gain a step or two ahead of the crowd if you’re real smart. If not, you’re simply shark bait.
fibonelli
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,338
- Likes
- 288
Further to Ampro above.
There's a very good 1st post about the fundamentalists trying to rationalise a significant move in EUR/USD on some news announcement when there were myriad technical signals the day and night before. :whistling
The fundamental terrorists must be stopped.
There's a very good 1st post about the fundamentalists trying to rationalise a significant move in EUR/USD on some news announcement when there were myriad technical signals the day and night before.
:whistlingThe fundamental terrorists must be stopped.
rols
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,621
- Likes
- 336
Is Sluggy still around? Or is he rolling around in his filthy lucre?
Had he sold GBP/JPY at the time of his post he would have gained around 5000 pips!!
Good call Sluggy!
PS Got anymore tips?
