Will the markets fall?

[88bluegt]

With the Fed's $600 billion program to buy Treasurys ending in June. Are the stock and bond markets going to fall without the $75 billion dollar monthly injection? :|

 

[Depth Trade]

With the Fed's $600 billion program to buy Treasurys ending in June. Are the stock and bond markets going to fall without the $75 billion dollar monthly injection? :|

I would assume the bond market will crash, perpetuated with a massive sell off/ cash in.

The stock market has already crashed as seen before and is crashed now if valued in any commodity.
Stock market is returning a lower dividend on average, yet is higher priced. Meaning you are paying more in dollars to receive less.

The dollar will be finished within the next two years.

 

[amps101]

With the Fed's $600 billion program to buy Treasurys ending in June. Are the stock and bond markets going to fall without the $75 billion dollar monthly injection? :|

It a mugs game trying to anticipate the markets; just lost too many $ over the years being wrong; this is why I aspire to be a successful day trader producing my target each day and then carrying this through to a target for each week/month; you generate your profits independently of the market vagaries or the whims on politicians and analysts; you don't care it they go up or down; take today for example, front page of my newspaper is a mushroom cloud, of a bomb blast of the rebels in Libya, but markets went up nearly 200pts on the DJI; it's what the traders will pay right now that counts; "the markets can stay illogical longer than you can stay solvent"...!!

 

[HowardCohodas]

Absolutely! That's not the trick. The trick is knowing when.

 

[new_trader]

It a mugs game trying to anticipate the markets

No it isn't. It just takes many years of study and practice to figure out how to do it profitably. Cutting losses quickly when you are wrong and holding on when you are right.

 

[alloy]

Equities IMO continue to look robust, in lieu of the past 2 years companys have scaled back and as a result have become leaner and meaner, paying attractive dividends and this restructuring has made them more resliant against the perills of the future whilst giving them a stronger base to grow as the economic recovery continues. I think to the investor these qualities are desireable. The market is already pricing in the completion of the Fed's program, will we continue to rally, consolidate or sell off....well as a trader i know i have tools to cope with all three of those markets and with a time horizon from the next minute to next week i'm happy to trade the markets as they present themself to me here and now, at least i'll know sooner rather than later if i'm wrong and can correct my positioning to account for it.....

 

[new_trader]

Equities IMO continue to look robust, in lieu of the past 2 years companys have scaled back and as a result have become leaner and meaner, paying attractive dividends and this restructuring has made them more resliant against the perills of the future whilst giving them a stronger base to grow as the economic recovery continues. I think to the investor these qualities are desireable. The market is already pricing in the completion of the Fed's program, will we continue to rally, consolidate or sell off....well as a trader i know i have tools to cope with all three of those markets and with a time horizon from the next minute to next week i'm happy to trade the markets as they present themself to me here and now, at least i'll know sooner rather than later if i'm wrong and can correct my positioning to account for it.....

‘Equities’ is such a broad term. I don’t have any money invested in US equities and you have to measure performance relative to other assets. If US equities are rising simply because the US dollar index is falling then you haven’t really gained much. The dollar index was around 90 in March 2009, now it's around 76. That is a drop of approx 15%.

What economic recovery?

 

[scose-no-doubt]

‘Equities’ is such a broad term. I don’t have any money invested in US equities and you have to measure performance relative to other assets. If US equities are rising simply because the US dollar index is falling then you haven’t really gained much

What? how do you work that out? Do you not trade on margin?

 

[new_trader]

What? how do you work that out? Do you not trade on margin?

Yes, I trade on margin.

 

[scose-no-doubt]

Then if the dollar weakens you;re not only making a little are you? That would only happen if you were without margin.

 

[Jack o'Clubs]

‘Equities’ is such a broad term. I don’t have any money invested in US equities and you have to measure performance relative to other assets. If US equities are rising simply because the US dollar index is falling then you haven’t really gained much. The dollar index was around 90 in March 2009, now it's around 76. That is a drop of approx 15%.

What economic recovery?

The S&P was around 800 at end March 2009, is now 1330-ish. That's a rise of 65%.

 

[scose-no-doubt]

If emh based inter-market analysis was that simple I wouldn't be posting here

 

[new_trader]

The S&P was around 800 at end March 2009, is now 1330-ish. That's a rise of 65%.

1330...wow...so it's nearly back to where it was in May 2008. Brilliant performance that. Besides, you didn't really read what I wrote.

 

[Jack o'Clubs]

No, not simple apart from with hindsight, but it's a classic macro-investor wood-from-trees **** up. Surprised, coming from new_trader whom I thought was a shrewdie.

Aah - the US is pumping trillions into the economy so i won't invest as the dollar will be devalued. Correct - down 15%. Meanwhile the asset class you've avoided is up 65%.

 

[new_trader]

No, not simple apart from with hindsight, but it's a classic macro-investor wood-from-trees **** up. Surprised, coming from new_trader whom I thought was a shrewdie.Aah - the US is pumping trillions into the economy so i won't invest as the dollar will be devalued. Correct - down 15%. Meanwhile the asset class you've avoided is up 65%.

You'll have to explain this because you have no idea of how I'm invested and how it has performed relative to the S&P500. I made a simple statement which was 'Equities is a broad term'.

 

[new_trader]

Just to add, you conveniently ignore the performance of Silver and Gold. How many ounces of Gold is the S&P worth now as opposed to 2-3 years ago?

 

[scose-no-doubt]

1330...wow...so it's nearly back to where it was in May 2008.

Will given the reason for the crisis and the fact the indices are heavily skewed towards financials I don't think it's that bad a performance.
But then I still don't really understand how risk is quantified and priced in so cant really ascertain fair value ranges.

 

[Jack o'Clubs]

You'll have to explain this because you have no idea of how I'm invested and how it has performed relative to the S&P500.

True. Since you never post anything tangible and prefer crypticisms nor is anyone ever likely to, except when you use an example to show impeccable after-timing.

I made a simple statement which was 'Equities is a broad term'.

Your comment was a bit broader than that. I was sure I read something about not being invested in US equities as you were concerned about the dollar. Perhaps I made that up, or it was another of your crypticisms.

 

[scose-no-doubt]

Just to add, you conveniently ignore the performance of Silver and Gold. How many ounces of Gold is the S&P worth now as opposed to 2-3 years ago?

Yes but what about ROCE & PE and COC etc compared to historical? This recession has whacked balance sheets.

Would you not also have to adjust for dollar discounting rather than taking that sp:gold ratio at face value?

 

[scose-no-doubt]

<<< Exits flame war.