Why trading is so difficult?

[Pat494]

Self control/discipline is an important factor- right
So does anyone go along with the idea of :-
before starting, write down that unpleasant job that one should have done ages ago but not got around to, with the idea that at the first infringement of the rules the self punishment is .........you guessed it - that job

 

[Black Swan]

Self control/discipline is an important factor- right
So does anyone go along with the idea of :-
before starting, write down that unpleasant job that one should have done ages ago but not got around to, with the idea that at the first infringement of the rules the self punishment is .........you guessed it - that job

Even better, you want motivation to make trading work for you? Take a look at the wider job ads out there atm..you'll soon get your nut back in the game..

 

[Truth Seeker]

Yes, words.

 

[Joseff]

5 pages in one day . . . looks like this is very interesting subject.

 

[bedsit]

People fail because they lack the patience and discipline to succeed.

Success is simple - it is a matter of hard work in this as in all things.

It helps to be a bada$$ turbo ninja assassin warlock commando terminator of awesomeness, like me, but it's not essential.

.

 

[forker]

Didn't vandam beat the crap out of chuck...

 

[BeginnerJoe]

If you throw enough chimps at the markets, eventually a small number of them come out profitable. Then they tell you it's all skill. Success in all other fields of life are similar

 

[forker]

While patience and discipline play a role, it's the lack of knowledge magnified by an ocean of useless information that I believe makes it difficult. The odds are in favour of blowing up or going insane before the average Joe learns what's useless and what contributes to success. Sometimes it takes months before you realise you trying to polish a turd when you should be moving on. It's a cyclical process of trial and error that challenges your intelligence and emotions constantly.
The difficulty is learning to bridle the effects of the challenges and keep a steady focused mind so that the good stuff doesn't get passed off as turds and the turds don't take you for a fool. I love this business, it has been the biggest challenge of my life.the lessons I have learned through trading I have yet to learn elsewhere. I have been at this business for the better half of 10 years and admittedly only found my way in the last 10 yards.
I blew 3 accounts and almost gave up in as many. I have discovered that the learning and difficulty never ends as I am always questioning myself. The challenge now is not finding what works but maintaining both personal and financial growth without blowing up. When I see people comment on the formula to success being paved with patience and discipline I question my own journey because I feel it is way more complicated than that. Sh!t if it were that easy I would be smoking pot for the patience and only taking a trade when the lights are flashing green

 

[new_trader]

If you throw enough chimps at the markets, eventually a small number of them come out profitable. Then they tell you it's all skill. Success in all other fields of life are similar

"The infinite monkey theorem states that a monkey hitting keys at random on a typewriter keyboard for an infinite amount of time will almost surely type a given text, such as the complete works of William Shakespeare."

Thanks to the internet, we now know that this isn't true.

 

[Gabrial]

All thing are difficult before they are easy?

 

[nunrgguy]

"The infinite monkey theorem states that a monkey hitting keys at random on a typewriter keyboard for an infinite amount of time will almost surely type a given text, such as the complete works of William Shakespeare."

Thanks to the internet, we now know that this isn't true.

Thx to teh interwebz we no dat is no tru in da house

Dem Wil Shakspere

 

[BeginnerJoe]

"The infinite monkey theorem states that a monkey hitting keys at random on a typewriter keyboard for an infinite amount of time will almost surely type a given text, such as the complete works of William Shakespeare."

Thanks to the internet, we now know that this isn't true.

If you throw a sufficient number of chimps at the interwebs, eventually you will get a small number who think they can trade, have discipline, have strategy, etc, etc. But the reality is not really. The rate of success is not much higher than that of a typical casino, often much worst.

One thing most people fail to realise, to the detriment of their money, is that the market is by far better rigged compared to the casino.

 

[the hare]

If you throw a sufficient number of chimps at the interwebs, eventually you will get a small number who think they can trade, have discipline, have strategy, etc, etc. But the reality is not really.

Taleb makes a similar point in one of his books. He argues that the fund managers who do well in a given period are those whose systems are the most apporopriate for market conditions at the time, so trend follower do well in stronly trending markets etc.

The key point though is that if people did trade randomly, then you'd certainly get people doing well by random chance. However, data quite clearly shows that fund managers do far worse than you'd expect by random chance alone. Most traders that I've taught initially do far worse than random chance too, which is quite interesting.

The reasons have already been explained, its a negative sum game, and participants tend to sabotage themselve by trading over too short a timeframe, and with too much leverage.

The link to the presentation by Leonard Mlodinow (author of the drunkards walk) is well worth a watch for anyone interested in the role of random chance and trading :smart:

http://streamer.perimeterinstitute.ca/Flash/7c694971-5315-4571-b809-8d0fb5ab657e/viewer.html

 

[BeginnerJoe]

The key point though is that if people did trade randomly, then you'd certainly get people doing well by random chance.

People do trade randomly. However, I believe the market is not random. The market is rather intelligent and devious, in that it ensures maximum profit for itself. Any entity sufficiently large to control a significant part of the market, gets to take a bite of the profit. The rest are just fodder. If you happen to be aligned with those entities, you can ride on their coat tails. Such alignments are usually by chance. Hence if you throw chimps at the market, some of them will align.

The key point I am trying to make is that the game is a fix up, and that's the reason why trading is difficult and most are guaranteed to lose. Perversely, the odds are much better on black or red on an unrigged roulette table for a lot of the market losers. Because they would be up against a known house edge rather than something that is intelligent and aggressively seeks out their money.

 

[barjon]

............The link to the presentation by Leonard Mlodinow (author of the drunkards walk) is well worth a watch for anyone interested in the role of random chance and trading :smart:

http://streamer.perimeterinstitute.ca/Flash/7c694971-5315-4571-b809-8d0fb5ab657e/viewer.html.............

Enjoyed that, hare. Probably won't stop me trying to control the uncontrollable though

jon

 

[Black Swan]

Taleb makes a similar point in one of his books. He argues that the fund managers who do well in a given period are those whose systems are the most apporopriate for market conditions at the time, so trend follower do well in stronly trending markets etc.

The key point though is that if people did trade randomly, then you'd certainly get people doing well by random chance. However, data quite clearly shows that fund managers do far worse than you'd expect by random chance alone. Most traders that I've taught initially do far worse than random chance too, which is quite interesting.

The reasons have already been explained, its a negative sum game, and participants tend to sabotage themselve by trading over too short a timeframe, and with too much leverage.

The link to the presentation by Leonard Mlodinow (author of the drunkards walk) is well worth a watch for anyone interested in the role of random chance and trading :smart:

http://streamer.perimeterinstitute.ca/Flash/7c694971-5315-4571-b809-8d0fb5ab657e/viewer.html

Blimey, what's up with you? All these great shares of late, keep them coming... Will watch that later, tia..

 

[Pat494]

Maybe I will try the toss of a coin in a simulator.

Surely that can't work even with money management skills

 

[the hare]

Surely that can't work even with money management skills

It works if you get the exit right.

 

[Pat494]

It works if you get the exit right.

I think it increases one's chances to get a good entry too imho

 

[Cornix]

Trading is a highly scalable profession. And those usually have pretty high failure rate.

Actually, trading has probably lower failure rate compared to other highly scalable professions (athletes, writers, musicians etc.). One has way better chances to become a successful trader than a famous writer, rock star or champion athlete.