Why is everyone long on vodafone?

[arabianights]

Sorry to divert, but I reckon telecommunication derivatives are going to be the next big thing - forwards etc.. on fibre-optic bandwidth, for example, at peak hours when everyone downloads the next episode of eastenders, and so on...

you heard it here first!

Oli, this is more or less what Worldcom and Enron did together, swapping (entirely useless) fiber-optic capacity with each other and booking trades on both sides as winners.

So the masters have already spoken!

 

[Lightning McQueen]

As options suggested in post 4 the facts are that most people get it wrong. The quoted stat from Simon of Capital Spreads is 80% I believe. Although the experiment is very unscientific, I thought it interesting if we could see this in action.

A sticky start but things have turned around somewhat and are looking up for the contrarians :clap:

Brent Crude though being a particular fly in the ointment, how apt that I am running spanish stops lol

 

[options]

Looks like you have got yourself a job for the next couple of days m8. If you don't mind that is,

In the interests of un scientific testing, how about say at 10 o'clock you position those trades opposite to the majority and see how it plays out?

Anyone else think of a better time or anything?

 

[UKtradergirl]

Looks like you have got yourself a job for the next couple of days m8. If you don't mind that is,

In the interests of un scientific testing, how about say at 10 o'clock you position those trades opposite to the majority and see how it plays out?

Anyone else think of a better time or anything?

Sounds like a good idea, options.

It is interesting to see that most of the trades turned around and made a profit, contrary to popular opinion. But i note that earlier on in the day, on the Dow particularly, it was significantly down, and i presume if this had actually been traded, would have been stopped out (presuming you use sensible stops and not Spanish ones that is).

Currently 91% of people on the website think that Gold is going UP. I'm going to short Gold tonight, not on the basis of doing the opposite of everyone else, but purely because 'the trend is my friend' and the trend says DOWN. Also, i can currently bet only 20p per point on IGIndex because of my new account there, so not got much to lose. I want to try and hold this trade for at least 24 hours or so as long as things are looking good- so this will be a good practise of holding trades for longer for me, which i desperately need to learn to do.

Sold GOLD at 771.8
Stop at 795
Take profit in approx 24 hours (wherever that is)

Just my little experiment. Definitely not a perfect setup by any means- entry could be a whole lot better, i suspect it may bounce up to 780 to 785 before heading back down again (hence stop bigger than i would normally use).

Will let you know the outcome, good, bad or ugly.

 

[MrGecko]

Oli, this is more or less what Worldcom and Enron did together, swapping (entirely useless) fiber-optic capacity with each other and booking trades on both sides as winners.

So the masters have already spoken!

However, WorldCom and Enron aren't really in a position to corner the market anymore, are they? Anyway, the real opportunity isn't being a producer or supplier of these bandwidth contracts (far too much like proper work), but trading them. Think of the potential of making a market in financially settled internet contracts!! Serious point, this is going to be huge, Enron et al peaked before their time).

RE: The experiment LM is doing... I would be suprised if the results show that the opposite positions are consistently profitable. On aggregate, being consistently wrong is just as likely as being consistently right - I reckon most people lose money not from taking the wrong position 80% of the time, but from mis-management of risk, mis-management of money, and the general "have a go, I'll double up if I'm wrong, cutting winners short, let losers run" sentiment that we all start out with.

 

[Charlton]

Why is everyone so long on the fone

YouTube - Blondie - Hangin' On The Telephone

 

[Lightning McQueen]

257 points up !!!

Yes indeed, we are up on the contrarian trades that have been signalled so far.

I've saved the screen shots of everything, just need to plan how to show it in a meaningful way.

Will post closed trades here, to this post shortly. New trades in as of 4 pm signals.

It's crude! its basic! but I see some legs in this strategy with some refinement. Keep up the good trades you guys over at paddy power :clap:

 

[UKtradergirl]

Fantastic! Look forward to seeing the screenshots. Lightening- is it the same trades from yesterday still or did you start new ones today?

I shorted Gold last night, as per my post. Has been doing great too. Currently £5.26 in profit (only at 20p per point, wish i had done more now).

Changing my mind about contrarian ideas!

UKTraderGirl

 

[Hoggums]

Just for fun I have entered play trades based on doing the complete opposite of popular opinion on their list ... and I'm already down

Yikes - those margin requirements are pretty severe!!

I suppose it stops you trading too large though...

 

[Lightning McQueen]

Fantastic! Look forward to seeing the screenshots. Lightening- is it the same trades from yesterday still or did you start new ones today?

I shorted Gold last night, as per my post. Has been doing great too. Currently £5.26 in profit (only at 20p per point, wish i had done more now).

Changing my mind about contrarian ideas!

UKTraderGirl

Hi yes, same trades as yesterday, some were closed today as the sentiment changed some are still in play as sentiment is the same or have not been mentioned in the list. One trade was closed in error, had I not made a mistake the running closed trade profit would have been around 450 points !!! what can I say, I was very sleepy this morning lol

Good going on your gold trade, well done indeed

Yikes - those margin requirements are pretty severe!!

I suppose it stops you trading too large though...

Yes mate, it is indeed a problem of running 1k point spanish stops, still small though compared to the size of stop he originally boasted of on here.

I have to run large stops otherwise we can't see the wood from the trees if we are continually stopping out.

 

[Lightning McQueen]

Ok, here's where we were at the close of play last night.

and early this morning.

At 10 am the paddy power sentiment list

From the list we can see the sentiment has changed for dax, which was closed @ +231 points, then a new short position opened.

Next I should have closed ftse and reversed but closed brent crude for +99 points in error, both trades would have gone on to make more points, oh dear, never mind.

wall st sentiment changed. trade closed @ -262.00 and traded short

opened a short in gbp/jpy

There's more from the 4 pm sentiment list but sadly have run out of time, will continue update tomorrow.

As this is looking to be getting rather long winded and in grave danger of swamping UKTraderGirl's thread I propose we move option's idea to it's own thread, any thoughts.

 

[UKtradergirl]

As this is looking to be getting rather long winded and in grave danger of swamping UKTraderGirl's thread I propose we move option's idea to it's own thread, any thoughts.

I don't mind you hijacking my thread- its very interesting. It would be good as it's own thread though, and perhaps a strategy worthy of further investigation- i know i have been looking at the paddypower website now and again throughout the day just to see what the majority are thinking, and comparing it to how i place my own trades.

-----

Update on my Gold sell from yesterday:

-doing really well! Original trade showing £9.66 profit (from 20p per point). Earlier in the day i entered a further sell trade on Gold as it was doing so well (or so badly, whichever way you look at it!), and that has earnt me substantially more already due to placing a more sensible, profit earning bet size. .

Instead of getting out of the position tonight, i have decided to leave it with a trailing stop and just let it run to conclusion. Either way i'm making money and that's all that counts .

First profit for the paddypower strategy!! Hurray (maybe we should just keep this quiet and make an ebook then sell it for £200 a time? Or even better start some seminars...)


UKTraderGirl

 

[Lightning McQueen]

Ok UKtradergirl, later today I will move the experiment of the paddy power sentiment indicator to it's own thread, then link it back to this thread.

In the meantime I will probably litter up your thread some more, before I get too far behind on progress updates.

I see you are new here, a warm welcome.

 

[UKtradergirl]

Ok UKtradergirl, later today I will move the experiment of the paddy power sentiment indicator to it's own thread, then link it back to this thread.

In the meantime I will probably litter up your thread some more, before I get too far behind on progress updates.

A litterbug of the most interesting kind--- keep up the good work .

 

[croker]

Interesting discussion.. i remember when crude oil had just dipped below the 200MA the site was saying 90-something percent were long and i was thinking how could so many people be long when it fell through the 200MA,(this was not so long ago when it was about $110.) . Anyway, the next day it was saying 90-something percent were short! So make of that what you will!

 

[Lightning McQueen]

Quick update

Things are going ok, here are the open positions and trades closed so far.

 

[UKtradergirl]

Things are going ok, here are the open positions and trades closed so far.

Great, we have profit I missed out on the GBP/JPY trade, £614 profit!! Ah well...

I love your username on the demo account: "oopslostagain"

 

[gfrost]

Looks like you got the call about Vodafone spot on UKTG

So is the conclusion from Lightnings portfolio, that it's best to do the opposite of what the masses are doing ?

 

[Lightning McQueen]

We are doing really well this morning. I am hoping we have some reversal signals today to close out some winners and stop those losses from escalating out of control

 

[Lightning McQueen]

conclusion of the experiment

I'm calling it a day on the experiment, I have witnessed over the last couple of days the overwhelming evidence that the traders as a group over at paddy power haven't really got the slightest clue as to trading in their chosen market trend direction at all. If they have a forum perhaps someone should pop over there and rescue them by inviting them to T2W.

I have witnessed them just trading against any trend in the hope of a reversal which never comes. To be fair as a group they are good at ftse and euro/usd and we got spanked there, ok'ish at oil, but completely inept at dow and dax plus everything else that popped up on their list.

Hope some of you have enjoyed the ride, my thanks to uktradergirl for putting up with this, arabia and options for the idea

The rabbits are caught in the headlights long everything!

We have the opposite positions and have been consistantly cleaning up, apart from the mentioned ftse and euro which dragged down the points tally at the end.