Which Indice to short

[sefty]

Interesting article in todays Financial Mail on page 5.
Just looking at the % falls on the major indices it looks to me ( a very rough look mind ) that the one to short would be the DOW.
% Fall from peak
Dow 16%
FTSE 20%
Hang Seng 26%
Nasdaq 63%
Dax 29.5%
Nikkei 68%

only food for thought any views appreciated

Sefty

 

[ChartMan]

Are you saying it's the one to short because it has had the least fall?
If so, wouldn't that be because it is composed of the top 30 "strongest", most fundamentally sound and "correctly " valued companies?
Just my thoughts...anyone else?

 

[darth trader]

I'm not sure that there is an absolute answer to the question but some thoughts:

with the recent falls the spread (for spread betters) is still the same and there are fewer points for a given percentage drop. Maybe that makes the dow jones more attractive than the nasdaq?

I've looked at the Hang Seng and it is less difficult to forecast than the ftse100 (IMHO) but you have to get up early in the morning to trade.

There are also a lot of stocks that follow the nasdaq very closely and move a lot too eg. stocks like BHM and BLM might give you better leverage than the NAS itself!

Darth.

 

[ChartMan]

Certainly agree with that. A ten point spread on DOW is far more attractive than a ten point spread on NAS, in percentage terms.

 

[sefty]

ideal

Folks
this is ideal just the sort of thought prevoking stuff i wanted. Proof to any one who reads this bulletin Board that we use the downward trend to make money whilst many out there are panicing.
Thx folks.
Personally i think the dow has been largely un-touched until this past week. Is this the start of the slippery slope i wonder.
Anyway i shall be putting a short on it this week.


regards
Sefty

 

[SP23]

I would have thought that the Dow would now be the favoured index to short as it's only just managed to hit the 20% bear point.

 

[madasafish]

I've given up NAS to short: got 580 points down on Dow last week and 300 up.. in 3 days...

Nice to trade.

NAS? Has it bottomed?
Dunno.
Will it go up down or sideways? Dunno.

Dow? Ignoring the daily /weekly variations it's a one way street in the next 3 months - down.. so much safer to deal with.. if you are short that is...

With NAS if trade goes wrong you could be left stranded long or short.. (although I suspect it'll still continue down to 1500 (comp)

Mike

 

[SP23]

Agreed - tried a bit of NAS trading and much prefer DOW