Where is the boundary between analysis and subjective conclusions?

[dbphoenix]

That's experience I was referring too.

I understood that. And, as I said, experience is irrelevant if one keeps making the same mistakes over and over again, as so many failing traders do.

There's an important difference between having ten years' experience and having one year's experience ten times.

Db

 

[piphoe]

I understood that. And, as I said, experience is irrelevant if one keeps making the same mistakes over and over again, as so many failing traders do.

There's an important difference between having ten years' experience and having one year's experience ten times.

Db

We are in agreement then? Experience is a necessary component no matter what the strategy or method?

That includes SLA?

 

[dbphoenix]

We are in agreement then? Experience is a necessary component no matter what the strategy or method?

Reading is an experience.
Studying is an experience.
Hypothesizing and experimenting are experiences.
Formulating and testing a trading plan are experiences.
Hanging out on trading forums is an experience.

Some experiences have value. Some don't.

Db

 

[timsk]

. . . Hanging out on trading forums is an experience.
Some experiences have value. Some don't.

Presumably, hanging out on trading forums has value for all of us, otherwise we wouldn't be having this discussion!

 

[dbphoenix]

Presumably, hanging out on trading forums has value for all of us, otherwise we wouldn't be having this discussion!

Value, yes. But there are levels of value. If one patronizes forums to learn something, for example, that is one value. If one patronizes forums to troll, that's another.

Db

 

[timsk]

And with all this randomness, subjectivity and uncertainty people keep denying similarity between trading and gambling

Hi zaysev36,
I'm slightly surprised by your comment, as that's not my perception at all. If you read the Is Trading the Same as Gambling? FAQ, you'll see there are lots of members who think they are the same, or at the very least highly correlated. Personally, my view is that it depends upon how you define gambling, and that doesn't necessarily have anything to do with subjectivity. It might do, but it doesn't have to.

As dbp regularly points out, if you have a well researched and tested trading plan, than randomness - in terms of your response to what the market throws at you - is pretty much eliminated. I daren't say completely eliminated, as there's always some eventuality that crops up once in a blue moon that even the most meticulous plan won't have factored in. As for the uncertainty, that too shouldn't be a problem for the same reason, as it is negated by the certainty of your trading plan. Needless to say, the theory is the (relatively) easy part. Having created your plan to overcome the randomness and uncertainty, you then have to execute it flawlessly. That's the tricky part and, for many, the stumbling block that leads to their undoing.
Tim.

 

[zaysev36]

Hi zaysev36,
I'm slightly surprised by your comment, as that's not my perception at all. If you read the Is Trading the Same as Gambling? FAQ, you'll see there are lots of members who think they are the same, or at the very least highly correlated. Personally, my view is that it depends upon how you define gambling, and that doesn't necessarily have anything to do with subjectivity. It might do, but it doesn't have to.

As dbp regularly points out, if you have a well researched and tested trading plan, than randomness - in terms of your response to what the market throws at you - is pretty much eliminated. I daren't say completely eliminated, as there's always some eventuality that crops up once in a blue moon that even the most meticulous plan won't have factored in. As for the uncertainty, that too shouldn't be a problem for the same reason, as it is negated by the certainty of your trading plan. Needless to say, the theory is the (relatively) easy part. Having created your plan to overcome the randomness and uncertainty, you then have to execute it flawlessly. That's the tricky part and, for many, the stumbling block that leads to their undoing.
Tim.

Yeah, I've read that thread, but it didn't convince me. I guess it's due to my lack of experience though. Probably it's just impossible to grasp the difference and details unless you try everything out in practice. Though I must admit it's very tempting to defend my point of view even while having no actual facts backing it :cheesy:

 

[zaysev36]

Value, yes. But there are levels of value. If one patronizes forums to learn something, for example, that is one value. If one patronizes forums to troll, that's another.

Db

I'd say it depends on a person, not an activity itself. In example, for a beginner trader like myself having been on this forum for like two mounths it has had a great amount of value. Much more than I'd probably get from blindly spending my money on real trading for that same amount of time. But for a seasoned trader sitting on forums might really be a waste of time except he does this for educational purpose.

 

[dbphoenix]

Yeah, I've read that thread, but it didn't convince me. I guess it's due to my lack of experience though. Probably it's just impossible to grasp the difference and details unless you try everything out in practice.

Well, yes.

Though I must admit it's very tempting to defend my point of view even while having no actual facts backing it :cheesy:

A common characteristic among those in many groups, e.g., politics.

I'd say it depends on a person, not an activity itself. In example, for a beginner trader like myself having been on this forum for like two mounths it has had a great amount of value. Much more than I'd probably get from blindly spending my money on real trading for that same amount of time. But for a seasoned trader sitting on forums might really be a waste of time except he does this for educational purpose.

It's not just a choice between hanging out on trading forums or "blindly spending" your money on real trading. You could also spend the time studying the market. What the market says about itself is far more pertinent than the declamations of a guru.

Db

 

[zaysev36]

It's not just a choice between hanging out on trading forums or "blindly spending" your money on real trading. You could also spend the time studying the market. What the market says about itself is far more pertinent than the declamations of a guru.

Db

Probably, but it's difficult to hear what market says without having proper base. Which could be acquired through proper studying, own experience, or listening to the declamations of a guru :smart:

 

[dbphoenix]

Probably, but it's difficult to hear what market says without having proper base.

If one doesn't know the difference between up and down, yes.

 

[zaysev36]

If one doesn't know the difference between up and down, yes.

You know what I mean. If I see that market for, say, half a year has been a downtrend and now it suddenly went up for a week, what should I consider it, a rebound or random fluctuation? The only thing I _see_ is that it goes up.

 

[dbphoenix]

You know what I mean. If I see that market for, say, half a year has been a downtrend and now it suddenly went up for a week, what should I consider it, a rebound or random fluctuation? The only thing I _see_ is that it goes up.

That's where the scientific method comes in.

Or one can just plot some indicator or other.