What's the win/loss ratio of your most successful strategy?

[Daniel]

This is my first go at a poll. Its harder to dream them up than it looks so any suggestions for future polls welcome – full credit will be given!

Anyone with a success rate above 70% should also feel free to get in touch!

 

[TheBramble]

Daniel, well done for posting the poll.

You might need to more clearly define what YOU mean by most successful strategy.

One that's been consistently used for the longest period of time?

One which has given me the most absolute profit (but I've only used it once!)?

One which produced the most profit?

One which had the least drawdown?

And are you just talking about a strategy or a system and strategy?

For instance: One strategy is to cut your losses and run your profits. Another is to have a profit target of X%. Another is to have a max loss of X cents per trade.

Whereas a system is (e.g.) enter a Long when the faster MA cuts above the slower; exit when it crosses back down is the mechanics of what your strategy 'hangs' around.

I have voted and assumed you meant - what is the best combined strategy and system that you have consistently used the longest with the most profit and least drawdown.

But never mind all that, I want to hear from the person who voted the 70+....

 

[Daniel]

Daniel, well done for posting the poll.

You might need to more clearly define what YOU mean by most successful strategy.

One that's been consistently used for the longest period of time?

One which has given me the most absolute profit (but I've only used it once!)?

One which produced the most profit?

One which had the least drawdown?

And are you just talking about a strategy or a system and strategy?

For instance: One strategy is to cut your losses and run your profits. Another is to have a profit target of X%. Another is to have a max loss of X cents per trade.

Whereas a system is (e.g.) enter a Long when the faster MA cuts above the slower; exit when it crosses back down is the mechanics of what your strategy 'hangs' around.

I have voted and assumed you meant - what is the best combined strategy and system that you have consistently used the longest with the most profit and least drawdown.

But never mind all that, I want to hear from the person who voted the 70+....

Hi TB

I'm happy for voters to use their own criteria as to why a particular strategy (or system ) was their most successful (although I'd hope the minimum criteria for success for anyone would be it made a bit of money! - 'it lost money slowest' would be straining the definition).

Cheers

Dan

 

[TheBramble]

the bramble - win/loss ratio - what dont u understand about that?? winning/profitable trades vs losers!!

I could have a system which delivers a 90% win rate, but if I don't have a strategy for taking those profits off the table (i.e. if I just give 'em all back) the system's worthless. When I first started paper-trading I had systems which were consistently pulling 80-90% (we all had those ones, right?), but when I started actually trading them - I lost money.

hmmm - somethings wrong here though.

so all you guys reckon your edge is 7/10 eh? come on - if this were so how come the average t2w member refuses to put on >2% of their money down?

lets start again......

(and be honest this time!)

AGREED!!! My best overall W:L if currently around 55% and I'm doing OK with that. If it were 70+% I'd be somewhat happier...and placing a larger risk per trade.

Maybe the poll should have been confined to 'actual' rather than 'paper' trading results...

 

[FetteredChinos]

there was no >80% option, so i had to go for the conservative selection.

 

[TheBramble]

there was no >80% option, so i had to go for the conservative selection.

Aaaaarrrggghhhhhh.......

 

[TheBramble]

Look, I've got an idea. As I'm so far down the league table of high-flying winning trade percentages, how about you all pay me to market my system to newbies. It would make sense, don't you think?

 

[FetteredChinos]

cracking idea TB,

can i cream off 15% as my fee please?

 

[Glenn]

Erm - what about Expectancy ?
"...if it is positive then historically your system wins on average, if it is negative then you better look for another strategy..."

www.financialpicks.com/simulator.html

Glenn

 

[frugi]

A handy simulator that , thanks Glenn.

The attachment shows 1000 possible outcomes of a system that wins 36% of the time with a 2.75 average win:loss ratio.

I assume you start with 100 units then on each trade you either win 2.75 or lose 1.

I am having a mental block as to how to fit this to real world futures trading. Imagine a system with these results that trades once a day for approx 2 years and assume this results in exactly the 453 trades shown.

The return on 100 units seems to vary between approx 30% and 267% (130 to 397 units)

How do I translate the percentage increase into, say, pips per day or return on original capital given that futures involve leverage? What other variables do I need? Is this a complex calculation or am I missing something obvious?

Thanks very much.

 

[TheBramble]

cracking idea TB,

can i cream off 15% as my fee please?

You could have done if it had been your b*loody idea mate!

And I'm getting more and more despondent by the hour. 9 voters (so far) claiming a 70+% W:L. At that rate I'd be breaking even...

 

[FetteredChinos]

cant i act as executive "consultant" ??

and my first piece of advice/request is for people to start buying dow futures....

 

[Glenn]

A handy simulator that , thanks Glenn.

The attachment shows 1000 possible outcomes of a system that wins 36% of the time with a 2.75 average win:loss ratio.

I assume you start with 100 units then on each trade you either win 2.75 or lose 1.

I am having a mental block as to how to fit this to real world futures trading. Imagine a system with these results that trades once a day for approx 2 years and assume this results in exactly the 453 trades shown.

The return on 100 units seems to vary between approx 30% and 267% (130 to 397 units)

How do I translate the percentage increase into, say, pips per day or return on original capital given that futures involve leverage? What other variables do I need? Is this a complex calculation or am I missing something obvious?

Thanks very much.

Frugi
Each 'Line' is an equity chart which is produced by using a randomly generated dataset (stock chart if you like).
For every different stock chart you will get a different equity chart with a different profit after 453 bars.
In all cases the Win/Loss ratio and the Win Probability are the same.

What this is telling you is that you can only expect the number of pips per day to fall within a range, rather than be a precise figure.

As a daft example imagine your system trades the Ftse and it started going literally sideways for months. This would generate a different outcome to a Ftse which swung widly up and down over the same period of time.

Positive Expectancy is good, but it's not a guarantee, more a likelihood based on past performance (which is oft-quoted as being no guide to the future)
However, positive expectancy is essential in addition to a reasonable win/loss ratio.
Glenn

 

[TheBramble]

yea - but if u aint takin those profits u aint winnin r u !!!!

That was my point.

u will find that 95% of trades go your way when u get in - by at least a tick. do u collect that tick or do u let the trade go against u?

I tend to just sit there and watch them all go against me...Is that where I'm going wrong do you think???

 

[theblackmamba]

over 7 years of trading i have have a 50.2% win/loss ratio swing trading(4184 trades), but have turned a 100 unit into 2489(Net). the key is avg win/avg loss imo.