What's missing

barjon

Well-known member
May 6, 2003
10,050
1,474
223
78
#31
scose

it looks to me that what you're trying to model is a long term investment model which may, or may not, give you a useful bias for shorter term trading. That's doubtful though - the dotcom bubble that you point to giving an interesting disconnect did, nonetheless, persist for some time and caused a lot of people who recognised that disconnect to lose a lot of short term money on the way as they fought the bubble. Whether they had enough left to recover it all when it burst is a moot point :)
 

scose-no-doubt

Well-known member
Apr 8, 2010
4,630
954
123
#32
No I wouldn't use it at all for shorter term trading. I think you either play the book or mean revert in the shorter term or your goose is cooked.
 

ChocolateDigestive

Well-known member
Feb 9, 2012
1,153
280
93
#33
I'm a hobbyist really. Just want to get a handle on things for when I hopefully earn some decent money in the future. Fancy a go at managing my own investments with a bit of short termism thrown into the mix. That's the dream anyway.

I don't use any statistical software I just excel it all. It's the only thing I can be bothered to learn to use with the limited time I have.
3931 posts and you dont trade. are you kin retarded. what a waste of your time. time is valuable dont you know. wake up and smell the morrisons value roast.
 

scose-no-doubt

Well-known member
Apr 8, 2010
4,630
954
123
#34
Can't really afford to place any meaningful capital at the moment mate. You seen how much mortgage deposits are these days? One step at a time, fam!
 

Jack o'Clubs

Well-known member
Sep 7, 2005
1,554
342
93
#35
I was going to send you that Global Wave stuff but PMs don’t seem to allow attachments. Drop me your email if you want me to send it over.
 

ChocolateDigestive

Well-known member
Feb 9, 2012
1,153
280
93
#36
Can't really afford to place any meaningful capital at the moment mate. You seen how much mortgage deposits are these days? One step at a time, fam!
plenty of capital out there:

Stocks - prop firms will gear you up 20 to 1 with tiny deposit
Futures - some firms will let you tarde ES with c. $300 intraday margin
FX - crazy leverage available.
Bonds - ok you prob need a wedge to start here.

point is a reasonable goal is to make 20 ticks/pips/points per day, you dont need much capital for that to make meaningful profits.

what you are doing is avoiding trading to keep you 'safe' from losses. not knocking you just pointing this out.

mortgage - unless you are buying in prime London forget buying everyone knows property is 50% overvalued in the UK, I own 2 properties and wish I didn't. if you are serious about trading I would advise getting your monthly outgoings down and reducing the pressure on yourself, u cant trade scared money.