What's missing

[ChocolateDigestive]

use think the answer is more analysis, if only I could understand a bit more about the market I could make it. you are clearly an intelligent chap (significantly above av anyway). the real issue (for you) is not understanding the market. the market is a whore and it is out to **** as many people as it can. find a quantifiable edge, test it and trade it.. anything else you are just punting, win lose or draw you are not moving forward. and dont listen to this advice whatever you do

 

[scose-no-doubt]

This exercise will one day have applications for portfolio risk management... trading-wise I'm starting to get an idea of what I'm after

 

[Jack o'Clubs]

Hats off for what you're trying to do, but this looks like a lagging not leading indicator (it makes a right rickets of the peak turn in 2007). There are loads of (quite sophisticated) quant models that basically try and do the same. Only today I was reading the latest version of BAML's 'Global Wave'. That uses seven inputs, industrial and consumer confidence, capacity utilisation, unemployment, producer prices, credit spreads and global earnings revisions. It has something like an 86pc success ratio which isn't bad.

 

[scose-no-doubt]

I think it was GammaJammer that gave me the little nugget advice that went along the lines of the only way you can get better at building models is to build models. Yes this one is lagging* atm but it's all baby steps as I'm just trying to build a working understanding and a prediction model is not what I'm trying to get out. This one was rather a reverse engineering exercise attempting to pinpoint fundamental drivers at any given time.
I'll be working on new models using forecasting inputs one day when I have the time to manually iterate all the data I need as I just can't afford any serious data subscriptions and when I have the time to attempt to build more models. I have so much going on that it's just not in my list of priorities at the moment. I'll be having a look at that BAML stuff too btw

*in a sense it is but if it was really lagging it would x shift

 

[scose-no-doubt]

the market is a whore and it is out to **** as many people as it can

You see here's the thing... I don't think it is. I think she's a beautiful ballet dancer who you need to feel up. Don't watch the dance and forms properly and you get hit with a spinning foot.

 

[NVP]

Hey S

can you Summarise again what this will give you .....

Global predictive inflation indicator ?
Risk on Risk off meter ?
Volatility index ?

then a few more may be able to offer some ideas and thoughts

for me I am always interested in the ole heat map approach where we just look at where global funds are flowing......and chase them !

thanks
N

 

[ChocolateDigestive]

You see here's the thing... I don't think it is. I think she's a beautiful ballet dancer who you need to feel up. Don't watch the dance and forms properly and you get hit with a spinning foot.

what I meant was that the market is a zero sum game, all winning traders are directly paid by losing traders - in the simplest form. it follow when you are trading you are going against the sum total of all the other participants who are trying to take money from you, hence why I said the market is a whore.

if you think the answer to trading profitably is more market analysis then you could be in a some a long painful journey to nowhere. maybe you are better of trying to find an edge in your chosen market and trading it? just speaking from experience init.

most people do more market analysis to try and avoid losing in one way or another, it's just another avoidance strategy that our minds invent. also it allows us to blame the market if we lose and you dont want to be doing that.

 

[jamezz34]

its good to give this stuff a go.

Ive seen you around on the forums scoose-no-doubt, you seem a clever chap, do u trade as a hobby or are you self-employed?

Can I say if you want to break into econometric modelling, try a book by Chris Brooks. Its a nice introduction to time series as well as cross sectional/panel modelling

 

[jamezz34]

And what statistical software are you using? Eviews?

 

[NVP]

its good to give this stuff a go.

Ive seen you around on the forums scoose-no-doubt, you seem a clever chap, do u trade as a hobby or are you self-employed?

Can I say if you want to break into econometric modelling, try a book by Chris Brooks. Its a nice introduction to time series as well as cross sectional/panel modelling

.........and are you a leo or Virgo ?

S youve pulled........hahahahahaha

N

 

[jamezz34]

lol yea i see how gay that sounds!!

f**** sake

 

[scose-no-doubt]

I'm a hobbyist really. Just want to get a handle on things for when I hopefully earn some decent money in the future. Fancy a go at managing my own investments with a bit of short termism thrown into the mix. That's the dream anyway.

I don't use any statistical software I just excel it all. It's the only thing I can be bothered to learn to use with the limited time I have.

 

[jamezz34]

SO NVP is a Trade2win Big cheese then......

 

[scose-no-doubt]

so nvp is trade2win cheese then......

fify

 

[jamezz34]

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